Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Up 69%
1 arb excluded
$5.9K
-$96.98
Smart Money Signal
22 of 32 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$1.1 | 44% 320-405 (725) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 58.9¢ | $497.7 | $496.33 | -$1.37 | 47% 297-333 (630) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.9¢ | $292.12 | $496.33 | +$204.22 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 20.1¢ | $205.59 | — | -$205.59 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 84.4¢ | $387.47 | $451.02 | +$63.54 | 35% 335-614 (949) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 66.9¢ | $523.31 | $417.17 | -$104.34 | 59% 292-207 (499) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 65.8¢ | $353 | $382.69 | +$29.69 | 54% 3503-2930 (6433) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 80.3¢ | $386.87 | $361.54 | -$20.83 | 42% 213-290 (503) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 84¢ | $376.47 | $355.56 | +$7.89 | 52% 3206-2981 (6187) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 68.1¢ | $245.47 | $343.63 | +$98.16 | 42% 340-478 (818) |
BO bosona | Upavg 90.2¢ | $264.83 | $287.11 | +$22.28 | 50% 3566-3609 (7175) |
AL almach | Upavg 68¢ | $201.04 | $273.44 | +$72.4 | 43% 341-461 (802) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 88¢ | $261.71 | $193.84 | -$67.87 | 53% 662-577 (1239) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 78.3¢ | $176.91 | $157.49 | -$19.42 | 21% 248-946 (1194) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 89¢ | $149.88 | $109.28 | -$40.21 | 39% 213-334 (547) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 50.1¢ | $153.41 | — | -$153.41 | 43% 533-713 (1246) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 87¢ | $92.22 | $104.99 | +$12.8 | 61% 1159-747 (1906) |
38 38791873984189 | Upavg 49¢ | $98 | $200 | +$102 | 48% 859-937 (1796) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $98.76 | $99.76 | +$1 | 98% 1113-24 (1137) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 91.9¢ | $90.86 | $95.81 | +$4.95 | 65% 1039-555 (1594) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 52.5¢ | $34.27 | $65.25 | +$30.98 | 47% 319-357 (676) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $29.2 | $25 | -$4.2 | 44% 550-695 (1245) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 39.3¢ | $41.7 | — | -$28.62 | 48% 559-599 (1158) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $22.54 | — | -$22.54 | 46% 537-642 (1179) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $12.98 | $12 | -$0.98 | 58% 719-528 (1247) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $7.5 | — | -$7.5 | 53% 3954-3443 (7397) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Upavg 60.2¢ | $35.55 | $6.37 | +$1.82 | 58% 1054-768 (1822) |
Invested
$1,454.45
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$1.1
Record
44%
320-405 (725)
Invested
$497.7
Value
$496.33
PnL
-$1.37
Record
47%
297-333 (630)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$387.47
Value
$451.02
PnL
+$63.54
Record
35%
335-614 (949)
Invested
$523.31
Value
$417.17
PnL
-$104.34
Record
59%
292-207 (499)
Invested
$353
Value
$382.69
PnL
+$29.69
Record
54%
3503-2930 (6433)
Invested
$386.87
Value
$361.54
PnL
-$20.83
Record
42%
213-290 (503)
Invested
$376.47
Value
$355.56
PnL
+$7.89
Record
52%
3206-2981 (6187)
Invested
$245.47
Value
$343.63
PnL
+$98.16
Record
42%
340-478 (818)
Invested
$264.83
Value
$287.11
PnL
+$22.28
Record
50%
3566-3609 (7175)
Invested
$201.04
Value
$273.44
PnL
+$72.4
Record
43%
341-461 (802)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$261.71
Value
$193.84
PnL
-$67.87
Record
53%
662-577 (1239)
Invested
$176.91
Value
$157.49
PnL
-$19.42
Record
21%
248-946 (1194)
Invested
$149.88
Value
$109.28
PnL
-$40.21
Record
39%
213-334 (547)
Invested
$153.41
Value
—
PnL
-$153.41
Record
43%
533-713 (1246)
Invested
$92.22
Value
$104.99
PnL
+$12.8
Record
61%
1159-747 (1906)
Invested
$98
Value
$200
PnL
+$102
Record
48%
859-937 (1796)
Invested
$98.76
Value
$99.76
PnL
+$1
Record
98%
1113-24 (1137)
Invested
$90.86
Value
$95.81
PnL
+$4.95
Record
65%
1039-555 (1594)
Invested
$34.27
Value
$65.25
PnL
+$30.98
Record
47%
319-357 (676)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$29.2
Value
$25
PnL
-$4.2
Record
44%
550-695 (1245)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$41.7
Value
—
PnL
-$28.62
Record
48%
559-599 (1158)
Invested
$22.54
Value
—
PnL
-$22.54
Record
46%
537-642 (1179)
Invested
$12.98
Value
$12
PnL
-$0.98
Record
58%
719-528 (1247)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$7.5
Value
—
PnL
-$7.5
Record
53%
3954-3443 (7397)
Invested
$35.55
Value
$6.37
PnL
+$1.82
Record
58%
1054-768 (1822)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $1.5K
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
Up — $451.02
Bonereaper
Up — $417.17
stepahead
Up — $382.69
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $361.54
blue.birds
Up — $355.56
mo-money
Up — $343.63
bosona
Up — $287.11
almach
Up — $273.44