Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Up 66%
7 arb excluded
$16.3K
$-7.4K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 35 top traders (66%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mo-money | Upavg 60.2¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$85.62 | 42% 340-478 (818) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 92.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$128.92 | 59% 292-207 (499) |
BO bosona | Upavg 72.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$224.08 | 50% 3566-3609 (7175) |
AL almach | Upavg 65.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$49.97 | 43% 341-461 (802) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 52.4¢ | $858.13 | $1.2K | +$297.6 | 49% 562-580 (1142) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 64.6¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$1.8 | 53% 662-577 (1239) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 66.9¢ | $908.34 | $937.5 | +$169.36 | 11% 88-680 (768) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 65.7¢ | $715.39 | $739.76 | +$24.37 | 21% 248-946 (1194) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 33.1¢ | $607.11 | $589.8 | -$17.32 | 53% 243-215 (458) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $294.47 | $589.8 | +$295.32 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.1¢ | $312.64 | — | -$312.64 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Upavg 51.8¢ | $564.44 | $675.99 | +$111.55 | 53% 238-213 (451) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.8¢ | $349.83 | $675.99 | +$326.17 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.7¢ | $214.61 | — | -$214.61 | |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Upavg 81.4¢ | $756.46 | $671 | -$83.51 | — 7-7 (14) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 31.1¢ | $582.08 | $508.34 | -$73.74 | 47% 297-333 (630) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.2¢ | $280.56 | $508.34 | +$227.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.1¢ | $301.52 | — | -$301.52 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 51¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 43% 533-713 (1246) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 74.2¢ | $541.72 | $511.68 | -$30.05 | 52% 3206-2981 (6187) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 71.2¢ | $567.78 | $462.86 | -$104.92 | 42% 213-290 (503) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 65.3¢ | $449.05 | $448.51 | -$0.54 | 54% 3503-2930 (6433) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 55.2¢ | $289.82 | $389.08 | +$122.23 | 47% 319-357 (676) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 54.3¢ | $391.44 | $365.99 | +$19.99 | 53% 716-640 (1356) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 63.8¢ | $337.21 | $439.61 | +$102.4 | 35% 335-614 (949) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 94.7¢ | $301.54 | $306.39 | +$4.85 | 65% 1039-555 (1594) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $239.58 | $242 | +$2.42 | 98% 1113-24 (1137) |
PL ply-pm4 | Upavg 74¢ | $210.18 | $201.07 | +$13.16 | 2% 6-293 (299) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 37.2¢ | $201.53 | $123.04 | -$78.49 | 39% 213-334 (547) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.7¢ | $84.58 | $123.04 | +$38.46 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.2¢ | $116.95 | — | -$116.95 | |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Upavg 55.4¢ | $123.8 | $116 | -$7.8 | 53% 699-627 (1326) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.4¢ | $64.22 | $116 | +$51.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.9¢ | $59.58 | — | -$59.58 | |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $98 | — | -$98 | 48% 859-937 (1796) |
Invested
$1,910.8
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$85.62
Record
42%
340-478 (818)
Invested
$1,756.86
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$128.92
Record
59%
292-207 (499)
Invested
$1,676.5
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$224.08
Record
50%
3566-3609 (7175)
Invested
$1,176.14
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$49.97
Record
43%
341-461 (802)
Invested
$858.13
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$297.6
Record
49%
562-580 (1142)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$1,025.11
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$1.8
Record
53%
662-577 (1239)
AtomforgeInvested
$908.34
Value
$937.5
PnL
+$169.36
Record
11%
88-680 (768)
Invested
$715.39
Value
$739.76
PnL
+$24.37
Record
21%
248-946 (1194)
Invested
$607.11
Value
$589.8
PnL
-$17.32
Record
53%
243-215 (458)
Both legs:
Invested
$564.44
Value
$675.99
PnL
+$111.55
Record
53%
238-213 (451)
Both legs:
Invested
$756.46
Value
$671
PnL
-$83.51
Record
—
7-7 (14)
Invested
$582.08
Value
$508.34
PnL
-$73.74
Record
47%
297-333 (630)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,152.58
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
43%
533-713 (1246)
Invested
$541.72
Value
$511.68
PnL
-$30.05
Record
52%
3206-2981 (6187)
Invested
$567.78
Value
$462.86
PnL
-$104.92
Record
42%
213-290 (503)
Invested
$449.05
Value
$448.51
PnL
-$0.54
Record
54%
3503-2930 (6433)
Invested
$289.82
Value
$389.08
PnL
+$122.23
Record
47%
319-357 (676)
Invested
$391.44
Value
$365.99
PnL
+$19.99
Record
53%
716-640 (1356)
machinelearnedInvested
$337.21
Value
$439.61
PnL
+$102.4
Record
35%
335-614 (949)
Invested
$301.54
Value
$306.39
PnL
+$4.85
Record
65%
1039-555 (1594)
Invested
$239.58
Value
$242
PnL
+$2.42
Record
98%
1113-24 (1137)
Invested
$210.18
Value
$201.07
PnL
+$13.16
Record
2%
6-293 (299)
Invested
$201.53
Value
$123.04
PnL
-$78.49
Record
39%
213-334 (547)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$123.8
Value
$116
PnL
-$7.8
Record
53%
699-627 (1326)
Both legs:
Invested
$98
Value
—
PnL
-$98
Record
48%
859-937 (1796)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
mo-money
Up — $1.8K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.6K
bosona
Up — $1.5K
almach
Up — $1.2K
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.2K
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $1.0K
Atomforge
Up — $937.5
ply-pm0
Up — $739.76
0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
ARBArbitrage — excluded