Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
41
Up 76%
1 arb excluded
$21.2K
$42.04
Smart Money Signal
31 of 41 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borderlocket | Upavg 77.1¢ | $5.1K | $6.6K | +$1.5K | 10% 10-93 (103) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 76% 403-129 (532) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$32.28 | 98% 1113-24 (1137) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 82¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$110.5 | 47% 297-333 (630) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 86.9¢ | $973.47 | $1.0K | +$30.03 | 35% 335-614 (949) |
AL almach | Upavg 78.3¢ | $896.35 | $799.79 | -$96.56 | 43% 341-461 (802) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 77.8¢ | $729.23 | $774.73 | +$45.5 | 53% 662-577 (1239) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 78.3¢ | $1.6K | $620.67 | -$409.65 | 11% 88-680 (768) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 71.5¢ | $569.77 | $588.88 | +$19.1 | 54% 3503-2930 (6433) |
BO bosona | Upavg 89.2¢ | $617.81 | $561.92 | -$55.89 | 50% 3566-3609 (7175) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 74.4¢ | $499.02 | $532.85 | +$33.83 | 52% 3206-2981 (6187) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 82.9¢ | $409.86 | $399.98 | -$9.87 | 21% 248-946 (1194) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 52.7¢ | $304.17 | $559.66 | +$255.49 | 43% 533-713 (1246) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 63.8¢ | $308.64 | $314.07 | +$9.28 | 59% 292-207 (499) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 69.1¢ | $237.89 | $280.51 | +$42.62 | 53% 238-213 (451) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 82.2¢ | $385.13 | $274.67 | -$108.71 | 42% 213-290 (503) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Downavg 48.3¢ | $254.6 | — | -$254.6 | 48% 859-937 (1796) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 80.4¢ | $257.89 | $265.01 | +$7.12 | 39% 213-334 (547) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 83¢ | $308.33 | $253.5 | -$54.83 | 53% 243-215 (458) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 22.7¢ | $242.97 | — | -$242.97 | 42% 340-478 (818) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR | Downavg 37.6¢ | $120.73 | — | -$120.73 | 46% 537-642 (1179) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Upavg 84.7¢ | $248.06 | $118 | +$16.94 | — 7-7 (14) |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Upavg 60.8¢ | $99.99 | $95 | -$4.99 | 44% 550-695 (1245) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.8¢ | $57.8 | $95 | +$37.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.6¢ | $42.19 | — | -$42.19 | |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 89.3¢ | $99.88 | $111.9 | +$12.02 | 53% 699-627 (1326) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 90.1¢ | $99.77 | $109.27 | +$11.89 | 38% 277-461 (738) |
Invested
$5,088.61
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
10%
10-93 (103)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
76%
403-129 (532)
Invested
$1,635.72
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$32.28
Record
98%
1113-24 (1137)
Invested
$1,241
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$110.5
Record
47%
297-333 (630)
machinelearnedInvested
$973.47
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$30.03
Record
35%
335-614 (949)
Invested
$896.35
Value
$799.79
PnL
-$96.56
Record
43%
341-461 (802)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$729.23
Value
$774.73
PnL
+$45.5
Record
53%
662-577 (1239)
AtomforgeInvested
$1,590.19
Value
$620.67
PnL
-$409.65
Record
11%
88-680 (768)
Invested
$569.77
Value
$588.88
PnL
+$19.1
Record
54%
3503-2930 (6433)
Invested
$617.81
Value
$561.92
PnL
-$55.89
Record
50%
3566-3609 (7175)
Invested
$499.02
Value
$532.85
PnL
+$33.83
Record
52%
3206-2981 (6187)
Invested
$409.86
Value
$399.98
PnL
-$9.87
Record
21%
248-946 (1194)
Invested
$304.17
Value
$559.66
PnL
+$255.49
Record
43%
533-713 (1246)
Invested
$308.64
Value
$314.07
PnL
+$9.28
Record
59%
292-207 (499)
Invested
$237.89
Value
$280.51
PnL
+$42.62
Record
53%
238-213 (451)
Invested
$385.13
Value
$274.67
PnL
-$108.71
Record
42%
213-290 (503)
Invested
$254.6
Value
—
PnL
-$254.6
Record
48%
859-937 (1796)
Invested
$257.89
Value
$265.01
PnL
+$7.12
Record
39%
213-334 (547)
Invested
$308.33
Value
$253.5
PnL
-$54.83
Record
53%
243-215 (458)
Invested
$242.97
Value
—
PnL
-$242.97
Record
42%
340-478 (818)
Invested
$120.73
Value
—
PnL
-$120.73
Record
46%
537-642 (1179)
Invested
$248.06
Value
$118
PnL
+$16.94
Record
—
7-7 (14)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$99.99
Value
$95
PnL
-$4.99
Record
44%
550-695 (1245)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniInvested
$99.88
Value
$111.9
PnL
+$12.02
Record
53%
699-627 (1326)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$99.77
Value
$109.27
PnL
+$11.89
Record
38%
277-461 (738)