Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.2K

Combined PnL

$4.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 36 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$38.4K

Total Shares38,429

Combined PnL+$9.3K

Up18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares13,796

Combined PnL$-4.5K

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	Downavg 70.2¢	$21.5K	$30.6K	+$9.1K	75% 15-5 (20)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 82.1¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$71.3	47% 282-317 (599)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 75.8¢	$896.97	$877.94	+$3.2	59% 279-195 (474)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 77.8¢	$845.96	$871.23	+$25.27	52% 3162-2947 (6109)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 81.5¢	$798.98	$718.2	-$80.78	42% 199-280 (479)
ST stepahead	Downavg 67.9¢	$639.85	$686.34	+$46.49	54% 3478-2923 (6401)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$411.02	$518.84	+$107.82	53% 226-203 (429)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$262.06	$518.84	+$256.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.5¢	$148.96	—	-$148.96
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 78.2¢	$455.82	$422.12	-$33.7	53% 232-203 (435)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$361.35	$365	+$3.65	98% 1050-22 (1072)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 47.5¢	$281.9	$593.78	+$311.87	48% 802-884 (1686)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 21.5¢	$361.31	—	-$361.31	35% 317-601 (918)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 34.5¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.3K	43% 498-671 (1169)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 85.2¢	$305.11	$254.99	-$50.12	20% 236-934 (1170)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 89.3¢	$347.23	$239.98	-$107.24	54% 632-542 (1174)
ohioism	Downavg 83¢	$232.3	$205	-$27.3	49% 532-558 (1090)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 27¢	$776	—	-$772.79	49% 523-535 (1058)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 82.2¢	$214.46	$179.61	-$34.85	38% 197-326 (523)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 33.5¢	$170.55	$86.15	-$84.4	45% 500-607 (1107)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.5¢	$110.35	—	-$110.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.9¢	$60.2	$86.15	+$25.95
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 65.6¢	$87.21	$96.67	+$9.46	38% 395-633 (1028)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.6¢	$63.45	$96.67	+$33.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 27¢	$23.77	—	-$23.77
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 28.5¢	$183.16	—	-$149.68	45% 246-297 (543)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$53.04	$65.6	+$12.56	49% 2852-2967 (5819)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 63.8¢	$47.43	$74.29	+$26.86	48% 80-86 (166)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 12.7¢	$52.95	$30	-$22.95	44% 511-656 (1167)
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.7¢	$30.45	—	-$30.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 75¢	$22.5	$30	+$7.5
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 98¢	$54.96	$46	-$8.96	50% 3264-3229 (6493)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 83.5¢	$356.59	$44.1	+$3.77	61% 1101-706 (1807)

bigbeliever

Down

Invested

$21,471.8

Value

$30.6K

PnL

+$9.1K

Record

75%

15-5 (20)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$2,120.27

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$71.3

Record

47%

282-317 (599)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$896.97

Value

$877.94

PnL

+$3.2

Record

59%

279-195 (474)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$845.96

Value

$871.23

PnL

+$25.27

Record

52%

3162-2947 (6109)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$798.98

Value

$718.2

PnL

-$80.78

Record

42%

199-280 (479)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$639.85

Value

$686.34

PnL

+$46.49

Record

54%

3478-2923 (6401)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$411.02

Value

$518.84

PnL

+$107.82

Record

53%

226-203 (429)

Both legs:

Down$262.0650.5¢+$256.78

Up$148.9632.5¢-$148.96

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$455.82

Value

$422.12

PnL

-$33.7

Record

53%

232-203 (435)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$361.35

Value

$365

PnL

+$3.65

Record

98%

1050-22 (1072)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$281.9

Value

$593.78

PnL

+$311.87

Record

48%

802-884 (1686)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$361.31

Value

—

PnL

-$361.31

Record

35%

317-601 (918)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$1,410.9

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

43%

498-671 (1169)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$305.11

Value

$254.99

PnL

-$50.12

Record

20%

236-934 (1170)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$347.23

Value

$239.98

PnL

-$107.24

Record

54%

632-542 (1174)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$232.3

Value

$205

PnL

-$27.3

Record

49%

532-558 (1090)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$776

Value

—

PnL

-$772.79

Record

49%

523-535 (1058)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$214.46

Value

$179.61

PnL

-$34.85

Record

38%

197-326 (523)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$170.55

Value

$86.15

PnL

-$84.4

Record

45%

500-607 (1107)

Both legs:

Up$110.3533.5¢-$110.35

Down$60.269.9¢+$25.95

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$87.21

Value

$96.67

PnL

+$9.46

Record

38%

395-633 (1028)

Both legs:

Down$63.4565.6¢+$33.23

Up$23.7727¢-$23.77

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$183.16

Value

—

PnL

-$149.68

Record

45%

246-297 (543)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$53.04

Value

$65.6

PnL

+$12.56

Record

49%

2852-2967 (5819)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$47.43

Value

$74.29

PnL

+$26.86

Record

48%

80-86 (166)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$52.95

Value

$30

PnL

-$22.95

Record

44%

511-656 (1167)

Both legs:

Invested

$54.96

Value

$46

PnL

-$8.96

Record

50%

3264-3229 (6493)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$356.59

Value

$44.1

PnL

+$3.77

Record

61%

1101-706 (1807)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 36 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x98f7db93...31283b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794325200

Traders in this Market

bigbeliever

Down — $30.6K

+$9.1K

CrouchPredictions

Down — $2.2K

+$71.3

Bonereaper

Down — $877.94

+$3.2

blue.birds

Down — $871.23

+$25.27

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $718.2

-$80.78

stepahead

Down — $686.34

+$46.49

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$107.82

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down — $422.12

-$33.7

hoodquant

Down — $365

+$3.65

38791873984189

Down — $593.78

+$311.87

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