Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
41
Up 61%
2 arb excluded
$16.1K
$-2.0K
Smart Money Signal
25 of 41 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 60.7¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$10.51 | 48% 267-292 (559) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$18.14 | 98% 973-21 (994) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 57.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$103.64 | 42% 188-257 (445) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 58.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$366.17 | 58% 257-183 (440) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 69.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$39.62 | 54% 3461-2909 (6370) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 74.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$33.07 | 9% 89-851 (940) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 35¢ | $943.28 | — | -$943.28 | 19% 216-920 (1136) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 64¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$133.66 | 52% 3111-2890 (6001) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $832.85 | $971.55 | +$138.71 | 54% 582-503 (1085) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.2¢ | $269.29 | — | -$269.29 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58¢ | $563.56 | $971.55 | +$408 | |
BO bosona | Upavg 71.3¢ | $1.2K | $868.6 | -$330.08 | 50% 3513-3548 (7061) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 54.5¢ | $705.64 | $729.86 | +$24.22 | 38% 187-302 (489) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 54.7¢ | $681.61 | $626.44 | -$44.14 | 53% 3927-3414 (7341) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 77.5¢ | $684 | $512.1 | -$171.91 | 40% 280-421 (701) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 65.6¢ | $541.06 | $499.99 | -$41.07 | 33% 287-590 (877) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 66.9¢ | $389.03 | $391.76 | +$21.78 | 53% 216-188 (404) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Downavg 49.3¢ | $354.07 | — | -$354.07 | 25% 192-567 (759) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 85.4¢ | $626.89 | — | -$620.27 | 41% 282-410 (692) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 46.5¢ | $238.44 | $289.09 | +$139.67 | 44% 226-285 (511) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 28.8¢ | $125.7 | $271.59 | +$237.89 | 44% 448-560 (1008) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 47.8¢ | $85.52 | $178.91 | +$93.39 | 47% 264-296 (560) |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Downavg 45.9¢ | $141.86 | $107.56 | -$34.3 | 44% 467-600 (1067) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.9¢ | $96.31 | — | -$96.31 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.4¢ | $45.56 | $107.56 | +$62 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Downavg 34.1¢ | $318.8 | — | -$318.8 | 51% 204-194 (398) |
 ohioism | Upavg 25.4¢ | $51.06 | $109.49 | +$90.98 | 49% 481-506 (987) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 81.2¢ | $103.81 | $94.14 | +$18.02 | 61% 1022-653 (1675) |
AN antsaslykuCTR | Downavg 16.3¢ | $126.07 | — | +$106.97 | 38% 363-587 (950) |
Invested
$1,983.96
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$10.51
Record
48%
267-292 (559)
Invested
$1,795.86
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$18.14
Record
98%
973-21 (994)
Invested
$1,448.86
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$103.64
Record
42%
188-257 (445)
Invested
$1,138.28
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$366.17
Record
58%
257-183 (440)
Invested
$1,259.61
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$39.62
Record
54%
3461-2909 (6370)
NIULAI4Invested
$1,185.73
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$33.07
Record
9%
89-851 (940)
Invested
$943.28
Value
—
PnL
-$943.28
Record
19%
216-920 (1136)
Invested
$1,197.88
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$133.66
Record
52%
3111-2890 (6001)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$832.85
Value
$971.55
PnL
+$138.71
Record
54%
582-503 (1085)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,198.68
Value
$868.6
PnL
-$330.08
Record
50%
3513-3548 (7061)
Invested
$705.64
Value
$729.86
PnL
+$24.22
Record
38%
187-302 (489)
FairValueMachineInvested
$681.61
Value
$626.44
PnL
-$44.14
Record
53%
3927-3414 (7341)
Invested
$684
Value
$512.1
PnL
-$171.91
Record
40%
280-421 (701)
machinelearnedInvested
$541.06
Value
$499.99
PnL
-$41.07
Record
33%
287-590 (877)
Invested
$389.03
Value
$391.76
PnL
+$21.78
Record
53%
216-188 (404)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$354.07
Value
—
PnL
-$354.07
Record
25%
192-567 (759)
Invested
$626.89
Value
—
PnL
-$620.27
Record
41%
282-410 (692)
Invested
$238.44
Value
$289.09
PnL
+$139.67
Record
44%
226-285 (511)
Invested
$125.7
Value
$271.59
PnL
+$237.89
Record
44%
448-560 (1008)
Invested
$85.52
Value
$178.91
PnL
+$93.39
Record
47%
264-296 (560)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$141.86
Value
$107.56
PnL
-$34.3
Record
44%
467-600 (1067)
Both legs:
Invested
$318.8
Value
—
PnL
-$318.8
Record
51%
204-194 (398)
ohioismInvested
$51.06
Value
$109.49
PnL
+$90.98
Record
49%
481-506 (987)
Invested
$103.81
Value
$94.14
PnL
+$18.02
Record
61%
1022-653 (1675)
Invested
$126.07
Value
—
PnL
+$106.97
Record
38%
363-587 (950)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Up — $2.0K
hoodquant
Up — $1.8K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.6K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.3K
stepahead
Up — $1.3K
NIULAI4
Up — $1.2K
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $1.1K
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
Up — $868.6