Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
22 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Down
33
Down 67%
$5.4K
-$16.21
73.9¢ → 100¢
+35% since entry · 22 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
22 of 33 top traders (67%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.2¢ | $726.44 | $736.3 | +$9.86 | 98% 951-21 (972) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 66.6¢ | $776.13 | $728.79 | -$47.34 | 41% 180-254 (434) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 72.2¢ | $723.28 | $647.3 | -$75.98 | 47% 258-286 (544) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 72.5¢ | $461.85 | $437.87 | -$23.97 | 54% 3461-2909 (6370) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 75.5¢ | $447 | $429.12 | +$52.85 | 52% 3094-2872 (5966) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 67.7¢ | $381.49 | $417.45 | +$41.04 | 58% 249-180 (429) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 64.9¢ | $384.16 | $364.13 | -$20.03 | 19% 213-915 (1128) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 76¢ | $277.57 | $250.25 | -$27.33 | 32% 278-586 (864) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 63.4¢ | $229.76 | $229.31 | -$0.45 | 38% 181-297 (478) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 65.6¢ | $124.57 | $189.04 | +$64.48 | 53% 3920-3411 (7331) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $92.23 | $147 | +$54.77 | 51% 197-190 (387) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 73.9¢ | $139.3 | $141 | +$1.7 | 54% 566-490 (1056) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 86¢ | $84.67 | $102.89 | +$18.23 | 39% 265-413 (678) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $74.5 | $99.5 | +$25 | 49% 2783-2896 (5679) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $64.95 | $89.86 | +$24.91 | 54% 212-181 (393) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 78.1¢ | $69.38 | $74.26 | +$4.88 | 44% 126-161 (287) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.4¢ | $47.54 | $63.03 | +$15.49 | 25% 186-563 (749) |
PB PBot-5CTR | Upavg 35.4¢ | $155.76 | $57.31 | -$32.44 | 47% 259-289 (548) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $31.69 | $44.25 | +$12.56 | 50% 3498-3542 (7040) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $29.18 | $28.9 | -$0.27 | 41% 438-624 (1062) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $42.09 | $27.61 | -$14.48 | 50% 3245-3212 (6457) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $18.95 | $25.35 | +$6.4 | 44% 434-549 (983) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Upavg 46.1¢ | $44.25 | $22.58 | -$21.68 | 49% 73-76 (149) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $12.7 | $11.9 | -$0.8 | 52% 599-542 (1141) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Downavg 54.3¢ | $24.44 | $5.86 | -$0.63 | 57% 858-636 (1494) |
Invested
$726.44
Value
$736.3
PnL
+$9.86
Record
98%
951-21 (972)
Invested
$776.13
Value
$728.79
PnL
-$47.34
Record
41%
180-254 (434)
Invested
$723.28
Value
$647.3
PnL
-$75.98
Record
47%
258-286 (544)
Invested
$461.85
Value
$437.87
PnL
-$23.97
Record
54%
3461-2909 (6370)
Invested
$447
Value
$429.12
PnL
+$52.85
Record
52%
3094-2872 (5966)
Invested
$381.49
Value
$417.45
PnL
+$41.04
Record
58%
249-180 (429)
Invested
$384.16
Value
$364.13
PnL
-$20.03
Record
19%
213-915 (1128)
machinelearnedInvested
$277.57
Value
$250.25
PnL
-$27.33
Record
32%
278-586 (864)
Invested
$229.76
Value
$229.31
PnL
-$0.45
Record
38%
181-297 (478)
FairValueMachineInvested
$124.57
Value
$189.04
PnL
+$64.48
Record
53%
3920-3411 (7331)
Invested
$92.23
Value
$147
PnL
+$54.77
Record
51%
197-190 (387)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$139.3
Value
$141
PnL
+$1.7
Record
54%
566-490 (1056)
Invested
$84.67
Value
$102.89
PnL
+$18.23
Record
39%
265-413 (678)
Invested
$74.5
Value
$99.5
PnL
+$25
Record
49%
2783-2896 (5679)
Invested
$64.95
Value
$89.86
PnL
+$24.91
Record
54%
212-181 (393)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$69.38
Value
$74.26
PnL
+$4.88
Record
44%
126-161 (287)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100Invested
$47.54
Value
$63.03
PnL
+$15.49
Record
25%
186-563 (749)
Invested
$155.76
Value
$57.31
PnL
-$32.44
Record
47%
259-289 (548)
Invested
$31.69
Value
$44.25
PnL
+$12.56
Record
50%
3498-3542 (7040)
Invested
$29.18
Value
$28.9
PnL
-$0.27
Record
41%
438-624 (1062)
Invested
$42.09
Value
$27.61
PnL
-$14.48
Record
50%
3245-3212 (6457)
Invested
$18.95
Value
$25.35
PnL
+$6.4
Record
44%
434-549 (983)
Invested
$44.25
Value
$22.58
PnL
-$21.68
Record
49%
73-76 (149)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$12.7
Value
$11.9
PnL
-$0.8
Record
52%
599-542 (1141)
Invested
$24.44
Value
$5.86
PnL
-$0.63
Record
57%
858-636 (1494)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $736.3
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $728.79
CrouchPredictions
Down — $647.3
stepahead
Down — $437.87
blue.birds
Down — $429.12
Bonereaper
Down — $417.45
ply-pm0
Down — $364.13
machinelearned
Down — $250.25
GoodFallen
Down — $229.31
FairValueMachine
Down — $189.04