Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Down 58%
8 arb excluded
$9.9K
$-2.8K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 33 top traders (58%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 53.1¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$106.03 | 40% 267-404 (671) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.1¢ | $1.1K | $2.0K | +$948.09 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.3¢ | $842.07 | — | -$842.07 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 41.4¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 41% 180-254 (434) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 54.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$374.33 | 39% 265-413 (678) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 53.6¢ | $903.05 | — | -$903.05 | 52% 3094-2872 (5966) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 31.8¢ | $544.81 | — | -$544.81 | 19% 213-915 (1128) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 42.8¢ | $701.41 | — | -$701.41 | 38% 181-297 (478) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 52.9¢ | $874.12 | — | -$874.12 | 54% 3461-2909 (6370) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 41.7¢ | $559.19 | $764.4 | +$216.92 | 58% 249-180 (429) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 48¢ | $631.1 | $702.18 | +$71.08 | 47% 258-286 (544) |
BO bosona | Downavg 58.4¢ | $450.62 | $677.41 | +$239.49 | 50% 3498-3542 (7040) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 25.2¢ | $132.8 | $527.19 | +$394.39 | 49% 452-474 (926) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 47.6¢ | $235.36 | $475.89 | +$240.53 | 32% 278-586 (864) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 42.6¢ | $342.5 | $431.55 | +$91.6 | 53% 3920-3411 (7331) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 44.8¢ | $234.15 | $314.19 | +$87.16 | 54% 566-490 (1056) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 45.9¢ | $167.97 | $289.92 | +$121.95 | 9% 86-850 (936) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 64.8¢ | $290.35 | — | -$290.35 | 53% 635-552 (1187) |
PB PBot-5ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $270.6 | $149.99 | -$120.61 | 47% 259-289 (548) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $183.91 | — | -$183.91 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.8¢ | $86.69 | $149.99 | +$63.3 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $136.97 | $225.83 | +$88.86 | 51% 197-190 (387) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Downavg 61.3¢ | $226.27 | $245.6 | +$19.33 | 44% 126-161 (287) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.3¢ | $150.57 | $245.6 | +$95.03 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.4¢ | $75.7 | — | -$75.7 | |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 47¢ | $178.95 | $201.31 | +$22.36 | 44% 222-279 (501) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Upavg 44.2¢ | $174.11 | $163.67 | -$10.44 | 25% 186-563 (749) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.5¢ | $69.53 | $163.67 | +$94.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.2¢ | $104.58 | — | -$104.58 | |
SH Sharky6999 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $165.42 | $165.59 | +$0.17 | 100% 29-0 (29) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 48.6¢ | $160.74 | $330.71 | +$169.97 | 48% 752-814 (1566) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 55.6¢ | $232 | — | -$195.22 | 49% 2783-2896 (5679) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Upavg 43.3¢ | $106.93 | $126.77 | +$19.84 | 44% 434-549 (983) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.4¢ | $41.02 | $126.77 | +$85.75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.3¢ | $65.91 | — | -$65.91 |
Invested
$1,915.48
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$106.03
Record
40%
267-404 (671)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,179.35
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
41%
180-254 (434)
Invested
$1,051.99
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$374.33
Record
39%
265-413 (678)
Invested
$903.05
Value
—
PnL
-$903.05
Record
52%
3094-2872 (5966)
Invested
$544.81
Value
—
PnL
-$544.81
Record
19%
213-915 (1128)
Invested
$701.41
Value
—
PnL
-$701.41
Record
38%
181-297 (478)
Invested
$874.12
Value
—
PnL
-$874.12
Record
54%
3461-2909 (6370)
Invested
$559.19
Value
$764.4
PnL
+$216.92
Record
58%
249-180 (429)
Invested
$631.1
Value
$702.18
PnL
+$71.08
Record
47%
258-286 (544)
Invested
$450.62
Value
$677.41
PnL
+$239.49
Record
50%
3498-3542 (7040)
Invested
$132.8
Value
$527.19
PnL
+$394.39
Record
49%
452-474 (926)
machinelearnedInvested
$235.36
Value
$475.89
PnL
+$240.53
Record
32%
278-586 (864)
FairValueMachineInvested
$342.5
Value
$431.55
PnL
+$91.6
Record
53%
3920-3411 (7331)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$234.15
Value
$314.19
PnL
+$87.16
Record
54%
566-490 (1056)
NIULAI4Invested
$167.97
Value
$289.92
PnL
+$121.95
Record
9%
86-850 (936)
Invested
$290.35
Value
—
PnL
-$290.35
Record
53%
635-552 (1187)
Invested
$270.6
Value
$149.99
PnL
-$120.61
Record
47%
259-289 (548)
Both legs:
Invested
$136.97
Value
$225.83
PnL
+$88.86
Record
51%
197-190 (387)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$226.27
Value
$245.6
PnL
+$19.33
Record
44%
126-161 (287)
Both legs:
Invested
$178.95
Value
$201.31
PnL
+$22.36
Record
44%
222-279 (501)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$174.11
Value
$163.67
PnL
-$10.44
Record
25%
186-563 (749)
Both legs:
Invested
$165.42
Value
$165.59
PnL
+$0.17
Record
100%
29-0 (29)
Invested
$160.74
Value
$330.71
PnL
+$169.97
Record
48%
752-814 (1566)
Invested
$232
Value
—
PnL
-$195.22
Record
49%
2783-2896 (5679)
Invested
$106.93
Value
$126.77
PnL
+$19.84
Record
44%
434-549 (983)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
almach
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
Down — $1.4K
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $764.4
CrouchPredictions
Down — $702.18
bosona
Down — $677.41