Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Down 68%
2 arb excluded
$17.3K
$686.89
Smart Money Signal
25 of 37 top traders (68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $7.5K | $7.5K | +$7.5 | 42% 261-355 (616) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$19.8 | 79% 359-97 (456) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$17.1 | 98% 951-21 (972) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 90.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$12.79 | 58% 249-180 (429) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 89.2¢ | $854.31 | $822.82 | -$31.5 | 47% 258-286 (544) |
AL almach | Downavg 84.3¢ | $520.13 | $609.32 | +$89.19 | 40% 267-404 (671) |
BO bosona | Downavg 84¢ | $427.13 | $500 | +$72.87 | 50% 3498-3542 (7040) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 93.1¢ | $473.82 | $428.06 | -$45.76 | 54% 566-490 (1056) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 82.3¢ | $419.31 | $423.05 | +$9.44 | 41% 180-254 (434) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 43.9¢ | $325.55 | $550.56 | +$225 | 41% 438-624 (1062) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 86.8¢ | $478.92 | $394.48 | +$9.07 | 52% 3094-2872 (5966) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $234.81 | $369 | +$134.2 | 54% 212-181 (393) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 48.4¢ | $258.09 | $533.53 | +$275.44 | 48% 752-814 (1566) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 71.6¢ | $192.56 | $268.99 | +$76.43 | 51% 197-190 (387) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 83¢ | $146.43 | $174.32 | +$27.89 | 39% 265-413 (678) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 81.3¢ | $138.22 | $123.45 | -$14.77 | 19% 213-915 (1128) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 60.6¢ | $61.7 | $101.85 | +$40.15 | 44% 222-279 (501) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Downavg 92.2¢ | $81.61 | $59.92 | -$21.69 | 44% 434-549 (983) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 92.2¢ | $55.26 | $59.92 | +$4.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.5¢ | $26.35 | — | -$26.35 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 62.3¢ | $47.2 | $70 | +$22.8 | 53% 635-552 (1187) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 91.2¢ | $68.54 | $62.03 | -$6.51 | 32% 278-586 (864) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $57.81 | $40.74 | -$17.07 | 38% 181-297 (478) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77¢ | $31.36 | $40.74 | +$9.38 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21.2¢ | $26.45 | — | -$26.45 | |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $40.94 | $43.85 | +$2.9 | 52% 599-542 (1141) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 79.8¢ | $31.91 | $40 | +$8.09 | 25% 186-563 (749) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $24.5 | $30 | +$5.5 | 53% 3920-3411 (7331) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 13.2¢ | $15.01 | — | -$15.01 | 47% 259-289 (548) |
Invested
$7,490.51
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$7.5
Record
42%
261-355 (616)
BoneOhioInvested
$1,960.69
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$19.8
Record
79%
359-97 (456)
Invested
$1,091.79
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$17.1
Record
98%
951-21 (972)
Invested
$1,002.88
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$12.79
Record
58%
249-180 (429)
Invested
$854.31
Value
$822.82
PnL
-$31.5
Record
47%
258-286 (544)
Invested
$520.13
Value
$609.32
PnL
+$89.19
Record
40%
267-404 (671)
Invested
$427.13
Value
$500
PnL
+$72.87
Record
50%
3498-3542 (7040)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$473.82
Value
$428.06
PnL
-$45.76
Record
54%
566-490 (1056)
Invested
$419.31
Value
$423.05
PnL
+$9.44
Record
41%
180-254 (434)
Invested
$325.55
Value
$550.56
PnL
+$225
Record
41%
438-624 (1062)
Invested
$478.92
Value
$394.48
PnL
+$9.07
Record
52%
3094-2872 (5966)
Invested
$234.81
Value
$369
PnL
+$134.2
Record
54%
212-181 (393)
Invested
$258.09
Value
$533.53
PnL
+$275.44
Record
48%
752-814 (1566)
Invested
$192.56
Value
$268.99
PnL
+$76.43
Record
51%
197-190 (387)
Invested
$146.43
Value
$174.32
PnL
+$27.89
Record
39%
265-413 (678)
Invested
$138.22
Value
$123.45
PnL
-$14.77
Record
19%
213-915 (1128)
Invested
$61.7
Value
$101.85
PnL
+$40.15
Record
44%
222-279 (501)
Invested
$81.61
Value
$59.92
PnL
-$21.69
Record
44%
434-549 (983)
Both legs:
Invested
$47.2
Value
$70
PnL
+$22.8
Record
53%
635-552 (1187)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$68.54
Value
$62.03
PnL
-$6.51
Record
32%
278-586 (864)
Invested
$57.81
Value
$40.74
PnL
-$17.07
Record
38%
181-297 (478)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$40.94
Value
$43.85
PnL
+$2.9
Record
52%
599-542 (1141)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$31.91
Value
$40
PnL
+$8.09
Record
25%
186-563 (749)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$24.5
Value
$30
PnL
+$5.5
Record
53%
3920-3411 (7331)
Invested
$15.01
Value
—
PnL
-$15.01
Record
47%
259-289 (548)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $7.5K
BoneOhio
Down — $2.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.1K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.0K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $822.82
almach
Down — $609.32
bosona
Down — $500
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $428.06
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $423.05
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $550.56