Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$79.87

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,327

Combined PnL+$418.76

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,435

Combined PnL-$498.63

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 94.6¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$83.34	58% 249-180 (429)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 50.4¢	$363.75	—	-$363.75	41% 438-624 (1062)
machinelearned	Upavg 79.4¢	$523.09	$659.06	+$135.97	32% 278-586 (864)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 85.7¢	$283.85	$233.23	-$50.63	52% 3094-2872 (5966)
└ Down leg	Downavg 21¢	$84	—	-$84
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.7¢	$199.86	$233.23	+$33.37
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 82.1¢	$251.96	$175.95	-$76	41% 180-254 (434)
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.5¢	$107.47	—	-$107.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.1¢	$144.49	$175.95	+$31.47
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 74.8¢	$204.72	$242.69	+$37.97	47% 258-286 (544)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 82.9¢	$119.58	$136.64	+$17.06	53% 635-552 (1187)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 68¢	$152.46	$224.3	+$71.83	51% 197-190 (387)
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Downavg 27.3¢	$58.61	—	-$58.61	38% 181-297 (478)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 80.3¢	$158.14	$197.05	+$38.91	54% 212-181 (393)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 75.1¢	$105.05	$125.47	+$20.42	44% 222-279 (501)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.1¢	$94.25	$125.47	+$31.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.7¢	$10.8	—	-$10.8
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 85.5¢	$77.54	$80	+$2.46	54% 566-490 (1056)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Upavg 77.9¢	$64.95	$70.92	+$5.97	19% 213-915 (1128)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 89.1¢	$57.54	$64.6	+$7.06	65% 895-482 (1377)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$15	—	-$15	49% 2783-2896 (5679)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 63¢	$22.05	$35	+$12.95	61% 992-638 (1630)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 91¢	$15.78	$15.9	+$0.12	36% 221-386 (607)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 81.5¢	$17.63	$21.64	+$4.01	53% 3920-3411 (7331)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 97.7¢	$17.65	$18.06	+$0.41	57% 625-480 (1105)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 1.6¢	$8.33	—	-$8.33	40% 267-404 (671)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	98% 951-21 (972)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 75¢	$3.76	$5	+$1.24	38% 357-573 (930)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$2.58	—	-$2.58	50% 3245-3212 (6457)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 6.5¢	$14.95	—	-$14.95	39% 265-413 (678)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 5.9¢	$34.1	—	-$34.1	50% 3498-3542 (7040)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,468.01

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$83.34

Record

58%

249-180 (429)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$363.75

Value

—

PnL

-$363.75

Record

41%

438-624 (1062)

machinelearned

Invested

$523.09

Value

$659.06

PnL

+$135.97

Record

32%

278-586 (864)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$283.85

Value

$233.23

PnL

-$50.63

Record

52%

3094-2872 (5966)

Both legs:

Down$8421¢-$84

Up$199.8685.7¢+$33.37

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$251.96

Value

$175.95

PnL

-$76

Record

41%

180-254 (434)

Both legs:

Down$107.4725.5¢-$107.47

Up$144.4982.1¢+$31.47

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$204.72

Value

$242.69

PnL

+$37.97

Record

47%

258-286 (544)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$119.58

Value

$136.64

PnL

+$17.06

Record

53%

635-552 (1187)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$152.46

Value

$224.3

PnL

+$71.83

Record

51%

197-190 (387)

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$58.61

Value

—

PnL

-$58.61

Record

38%

181-297 (478)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$158.14

Value

$197.05

PnL

+$38.91

Record

54%

212-181 (393)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$105.05

Value

$125.47

PnL

+$20.42

Record

44%

222-279 (501)

Both legs:

Up$94.2575.1¢+$31.22

Down$10.824.7¢-$10.8

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$77.54

Value

$80

PnL

+$2.46

Record

54%

566-490 (1056)

ply-pm0<$100

Invested

$64.95

Value

$70.92

PnL

+$5.97

Record

19%

213-915 (1128)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$57.54

Value

$64.6

PnL

+$7.06

Record

65%

895-482 (1377)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

49%

2783-2896 (5679)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$22.05

Value

$35

PnL

+$12.95

Record

61%

992-638 (1630)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$15.78

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$0.12

Record

36%

221-386 (607)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$17.63

Value

$21.64

PnL

+$4.01

Record

53%

3920-3411 (7331)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$17.65

Value

$18.06

PnL

+$0.41

Record

57%

625-480 (1105)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.33

Value

—

PnL

-$8.33

Record

40%

267-404 (671)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

98%

951-21 (972)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

PnL

+$1.24

Record

38%

357-573 (930)

PapeasyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.58

Value

—

PnL

-$2.58

Record

50%

3245-3212 (6457)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.95

Value

—

PnL

-$14.95

Record

39%

265-413 (678)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.1

Value

—

PnL

-$34.1

Record

50%

3498-3542 (7040)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7cd4dd1d...09b9d8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794313200

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Up — $1.6K

+$83.34

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$363.75

machinelearned

Up — $659.06

+$135.97

blue.birds

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$50.63

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$76

CrouchPredictions

Up — $242.69

+$37.97

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $136.64

+$17.06

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Up — $224.3

+$71.83

GoodFallen

CTR

Down — $0

-$58.61

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Up — $197.05

+$38.91

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