Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET

20 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 10

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$43.14

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 100¢

+67% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 30 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,543

Combined PnL+$221.03

Down10 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,919

Combined PnL-$177.89

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 50.1¢	$850.06	$859.22	+$21.97	58% 243-174 (417)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 65.3¢	$873.2	$778.05	-$95.15	52% 3079-2848 (5927)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 42.9¢	$511.52	$670.88	+$159.37	41% 173-249 (422)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 34.7¢	$388.08	$387.83	-$0.24	18% 205-911 (1116)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 62.1¢	$300.45	$269.98	-$30.46	54% 325-282 (607)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 42.7¢	$414.33	$252.44	-$161.88	47% 248-280 (528)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 51.5¢	$153.79	$226.26	+$73.46	37% 172-294 (466)
machinelearned	Upavg 72.9¢	$202.31	$226.03	+$23.72	31% 268-583 (851)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 81.5¢	$170.32	$203.77	+$33.45	54% 206-176 (382)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 48¢	$189.2	$201.27	+$12.07	51% 193-182 (375)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.3¢	$94.2	$119.13	+$24.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$95	$82.14	-$12.86
OhioAI	Upavg 47.8¢	$88.38	$184.65	+$96.26	43% 119-158 (277)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 32.2¢	$72.86	$141.44	+$68.58	53% 3913-3407 (7320)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$137.61	$138.31	+$0.69	98% 923-20 (943)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 61¢	$100.4	$95.06	+$15.58	61% 962-618 (1580)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 36.7¢	$32.7	$89.15	+$56.46	38% 352-563 (915)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 74.1¢	$271.46	$87.52	-$118.36	49% 439-452 (891)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 50.5¢	$131.73	$80.82	-$50.92	54% 549-476 (1025)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 34.6¢	$67.43	$80.76	+$13.33	44% 419-530 (949)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 62.4¢	$64.6	$73.59	+$8.99	44% 215-274 (489)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.4¢	$41.8	$39.18	-$2.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.5¢	$22.8	$34.41	+$11.61
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 94.2¢	$89.97	$71.39	-$17.68	65% 869-465 (1334)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 83¢	$51.94	$61.37	+$9.43	50% 3491-3532 (7023)
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 72.8¢	$62.25	$58.14	-$4.1	48% 444-473 (917)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.8¢	$36.2	$29.1	-$7.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.2¢	$26.05	$29.04	+$3
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 84¢	$45.96	$54.69	+$8.73	38% 253-408 (661)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$61.05	$51.95	-$9.09	41% 425-614 (1039)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Upavg 23.9¢	$17.8	$49.96	+$34.32	24% 179-560 (739)

Bonereaper

Invested

$850.06

Value

$859.22

PnL

+$21.97

Record

58%

243-174 (417)

blue.birds

Invested

$873.2

Value

$778.05

PnL

-$95.15

Record

52%

3079-2848 (5927)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$511.52

Value

$670.88

PnL

+$159.37

Record

41%

173-249 (422)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$388.08

Value

$387.83

PnL

-$0.24

Record

18%

205-911 (1116)

1000monkeys

Invested

$300.45

Value

$269.98

PnL

-$30.46

Record

54%

325-282 (607)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$414.33

Value

$252.44

PnL

-$161.88

Record

47%

248-280 (528)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$153.79

Value

$226.26

PnL

+$73.46

Record

37%

172-294 (466)

machinelearned

Invested

$202.31

Value

$226.03

PnL

+$23.72

Record

31%

268-583 (851)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$170.32

Value

$203.77

PnL

+$33.45

Record

54%

206-176 (382)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$189.2

Value

$201.27

PnL

+$12.07

Record

51%

193-182 (375)

Both legs:

Down$94.246.3¢+$24.92

Up$9548¢-$12.86

OhioAI

Invested

$88.38

Value

$184.65

PnL

+$96.26

Record

43%

119-158 (277)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$72.86

Value

$141.44

PnL

+$68.58

Record

53%

3913-3407 (7320)

hoodquant

Invested

$137.61

Value

$138.31

PnL

+$0.69

Record

98%

923-20 (943)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$100.4

Value

$95.06

PnL

+$15.58

Record

61%

962-618 (1580)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$32.7

Value

$89.15

PnL

+$56.46

Record

38%

352-563 (915)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$271.46

Value

$87.52

PnL

-$118.36

Record

49%

439-452 (891)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$131.73

Value

$80.82

PnL

-$50.92

Record

54%

549-476 (1025)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$67.43

Value

$80.76

PnL

+$13.33

Record

44%

419-530 (949)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$64.6

Value

$73.59

PnL

+$8.99

Record

44%

215-274 (489)

Both legs:

Down$41.862.4¢-$2.62

Up$22.827.5¢+$11.61

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$89.97

Value

$71.39

PnL

-$17.68

Record

65%

869-465 (1334)

bosona<$100

Invested

$51.94

Value

$61.37

PnL

+$9.43

Record

50%

3491-3532 (7023)

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$62.25

Value

$58.14

PnL

-$4.1

Record

48%

444-473 (917)

Both legs:

Down$36.272.8¢-$7.1

Up$26.0537.2¢+$3

mo-money<$100

Invested

$45.96

Value

$54.69

PnL

+$8.73

Record

38%

253-408 (661)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$61.05

Value

$51.95

PnL

-$9.09

Record

41%

425-614 (1039)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Invested

$17.8

Value

$49.96

PnL

+$34.32

Record

24%

179-560 (739)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 30 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.