Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Up 53%
2 arb excluded
$3.4K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 30 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 58.9¢ | $692.47 | $667.89 | -$22.38 | 41% 173-249 (422) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 72¢ | $616.51 | $587.43 | -$29.08 | 52% 3079-2848 (5927) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Downavg 47.6¢ | $530.65 | — | -$477.65 | 48% 733-802 (1535) |
10 1000monkeys | Upavg 58.6¢ | $332.61 | $347.83 | +$15.21 | 54% 325-282 (607) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 68.5¢ | $309.28 | $335.5 | +$26.21 | 47% 248-280 (528) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 58.9¢ | $323.46 | $289.82 | -$33.64 | 37% 172-294 (466) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 44.7¢ | $438.32 | — | -$413.42 | 58% 243-174 (417) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 52.5¢ | $250.21 | $361 | +$110.79 | 41% 425-614 (1039) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.5¢ | $189.52 | $361 | +$171.48 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.5¢ | $60.69 | — | -$60.69 | |
AL almach | Upavg 85.1¢ | $133.04 | $152.2 | +$19.16 | 39% 256-397 (653) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Downavg 38.3¢ | $169.63 | — | -$169.63 | 54% 206-176 (382) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 69.6¢ | $113.38 | $121.15 | +$7.77 | 54% 549-476 (1025) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 54.1¢ | $94.85 | $113.01 | +$18.16 | 51% 193-182 (375) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 45.6¢ | $46.03 | $95.02 | +$48.99 | 53% 3913-3407 (7320) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Upavg 47.9¢ | $78.55 | $76.99 | +$10.24 | 24% 179-560 (739) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 81.6¢ | $59 | $68.86 | +$9.86 | 65% 869-465 (1334) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $114.59 | $39.21 | -$75.39 | 31% 268-583 (851) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 80¢ | $31.35 | $39.21 | +$7.85 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.1¢ | $83.24 | — | -$83.24 | |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 55.7¢ | $33.69 | $60 | +$26.31 | 48% 444-473 (917) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 42.2¢ | $19.59 | — | -$19.59 | 50% 3491-3532 (7023) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 35.9¢ | $78.25 | — | -$58.25 | 44% 215-274 (489) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $15.6 | $40 | +$24.4 | 49% 71-74 (145) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $20.79 | $12.51 | +$17.56 | 44% 419-530 (949) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 54.9¢ | $10.6 | $9.75 | -$0.86 | 43% 119-158 (277) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $7.2 | — | -$7.2 | 57% 822-611 (1433) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 47.7¢ | $18.21 | — | -$15.71 | 61% 962-618 (1580) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Downavg 4¢ | $4.34 | — | -$4.34 | 50% 3240-3205 (6445) |
Invested
$692.47
Value
$667.89
PnL
-$22.38
Record
41%
173-249 (422)
Invested
$616.51
Value
$587.43
PnL
-$29.08
Record
52%
3079-2848 (5927)
Invested
$530.65
Value
—
PnL
-$477.65
Record
48%
733-802 (1535)
Invested
$332.61
Value
$347.83
PnL
+$15.21
Record
54%
325-282 (607)
Invested
$309.28
Value
$335.5
PnL
+$26.21
Record
47%
248-280 (528)
Invested
$323.46
Value
$289.82
PnL
-$33.64
Record
37%
172-294 (466)
Invested
$438.32
Value
—
PnL
-$413.42
Record
58%
243-174 (417)
Invested
$250.21
Value
$361
PnL
+$110.79
Record
41%
425-614 (1039)
Both legs:
Invested
$133.04
Value
$152.2
PnL
+$19.16
Record
39%
256-397 (653)
Invested
$169.63
Value
—
PnL
-$169.63
Record
54%
206-176 (382)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$113.38
Value
$121.15
PnL
+$7.77
Record
54%
549-476 (1025)
Invested
$94.85
Value
$113.01
PnL
+$18.16
Record
51%
193-182 (375)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$46.03
Value
$95.02
PnL
+$48.99
Record
53%
3913-3407 (7320)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$78.55
Value
$76.99
PnL
+$10.24
Record
24%
179-560 (739)
Invested
$59
Value
$68.86
PnL
+$9.86
Record
65%
869-465 (1334)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$114.59
Value
$39.21
PnL
-$75.39
Record
31%
268-583 (851)
Both legs:
ohioism<$100Invested
$33.69
Value
$60
PnL
+$26.31
Record
48%
444-473 (917)
Invested
$19.59
Value
—
PnL
-$19.59
Record
50%
3491-3532 (7023)
Invested
$78.25
Value
—
PnL
-$58.25
Record
44%
215-274 (489)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$40
PnL
+$24.4
Record
49%
71-74 (145)
Invested
$20.79
Value
$12.51
PnL
+$17.56
Record
44%
419-530 (949)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$10.6
Value
$9.75
PnL
-$0.86
Record
43%
119-158 (277)
Invested
$7.2
Value
—
PnL
-$7.2
Record
57%
822-611 (1433)
Invested
$18.21
Value
—
PnL
-$15.71
Record
61%
962-618 (1580)
Invested
$4.34
Value
—
PnL
-$4.34
Record
50%
3240-3205 (6445)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $667.89
blue.birds
Up — $587.43
38791873984189
CTRDown — $0
1000monkeys
Up — $347.83
CrouchPredictions
Up — $335.5
GoodFallen
Up — $289.82
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
Up — $152.2
0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212
CTRDown — $0