Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
34
Down 62%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
$-3.8K
Smart Money Signal
21 of 34 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL blue.birds | Upavg 69.9¢ | $679.71 | $622.23 | -$43.06 | 52% 3079-2848 (5927) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 56.2¢ | $848.4 | — | -$848.4 | 47% 248-280 (528) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 34.7¢ | $436.41 | — | -$416.41 | 41% 173-249 (422) |
10 1000monkeys | Upavg 62.2¢ | $503.19 | $440.21 | -$62.97 | 54% 325-282 (607) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 37.7¢ | $422.86 | — | -$403.9 | 58% 243-174 (417) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 42.2¢ | $270.03 | — | -$270.03 | 39% 256-397 (653) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 49.2¢ | $411.62 | — | -$411.62 | 50% 3491-3532 (7023) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 46.2¢ | $499.85 | — | -$499.85 | 31% 268-583 (851) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 91¢ | $306.56 | $214 | -$92.56 | 54% 206-176 (382) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 41.5¢ | $263.51 | — | -$263.51 | 38% 253-408 (661) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 63.9¢ | $175.52 | $173.78 | -$1.74 | 51% 193-182 (375) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 54.8¢ | $219.15 | $160.01 | -$59.14 | 54% 549-476 (1025) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.2¢ | $93.2 | $160.01 | +$66.81 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.8¢ | $125.94 | — | -$125.94 | |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 36.3¢ | $244.27 | — | -$244.27 | 37% 172-294 (466) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 65.9¢ | $102.18 | $124.09 | +$21.91 | 24% 179-560 (739) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 34.5¢ | $114.62 | — | -$114.62 | 53% 3913-3407 (7320) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 79.7¢ | $101.72 | $96.1 | -$5.62 | 43% 119-158 (277) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 73.4¢ | $58.45 | $65 | +$7.45 | 44% 444-557 (1001) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 79.3¢ | $46.06 | $58.1 | +$12.04 | 44% 419-530 (949) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 94.5¢ | $51.14 | $54.12 | +$2.98 | 65% 869-465 (1334) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 47.8¢ | $55.2 | — | -$42.8 | 44% 215-274 (489) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $20.65 | $35 | +$14.35 | 61% 962-618 (1580) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 38.5¢ | $30.8 | — | -$30.8 | 48% 444-473 (917) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 60.8¢ | $18.86 | — | -$18.86 | 53% 584-522 (1106) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $16.43 | $20.57 | +$4.13 | 50% 3240-3205 (6445) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 42.6¢ | $46.76 | — | -$45.33 | 49% 2767-2874 (5641) |
Invested
$679.71
Value
$622.23
PnL
-$43.06
Record
52%
3079-2848 (5927)
Invested
$848.4
Value
—
PnL
-$848.4
Record
47%
248-280 (528)
Invested
$436.41
Value
—
PnL
-$416.41
Record
41%
173-249 (422)
Invested
$503.19
Value
$440.21
PnL
-$62.97
Record
54%
325-282 (607)
Invested
$422.86
Value
—
PnL
-$403.9
Record
58%
243-174 (417)
Invested
$270.03
Value
—
PnL
-$270.03
Record
39%
256-397 (653)
Invested
$411.62
Value
—
PnL
-$411.62
Record
50%
3491-3532 (7023)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$499.85
Value
—
PnL
-$499.85
Record
31%
268-583 (851)
Invested
$306.56
Value
$214
PnL
-$92.56
Record
54%
206-176 (382)
Invested
$263.51
Value
—
PnL
-$263.51
Record
38%
253-408 (661)
Invested
$175.52
Value
$173.78
PnL
-$1.74
Record
51%
193-182 (375)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$219.15
Value
$160.01
PnL
-$59.14
Record
54%
549-476 (1025)
Both legs:
Invested
$244.27
Value
—
PnL
-$244.27
Record
37%
172-294 (466)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$102.18
Value
$124.09
PnL
+$21.91
Record
24%
179-560 (739)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$114.62
Value
—
PnL
-$114.62
Record
53%
3913-3407 (7320)
OhioAIInvested
$101.72
Value
$96.1
PnL
-$5.62
Record
43%
119-158 (277)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$58.45
Value
$65
PnL
+$7.45
Record
44%
444-557 (1001)
Invested
$46.06
Value
$58.1
PnL
+$12.04
Record
44%
419-530 (949)
Invested
$51.14
Value
$54.12
PnL
+$2.98
Record
65%
869-465 (1334)
Invested
$55.2
Value
—
PnL
-$42.8
Record
44%
215-274 (489)
Invested
$20.65
Value
$35
PnL
+$14.35
Record
61%
962-618 (1580)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$30.8
Value
—
PnL
-$30.8
Record
48%
444-473 (917)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$18.86
Value
—
PnL
-$18.86
Record
53%
584-522 (1106)
Invested
$16.43
Value
$20.57
PnL
+$4.13
Record
50%
3240-3205 (6445)
Invested
$46.76
Value
—
PnL
-$45.33
Record
49%
2767-2874 (5641)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
blue.birds
Up — $622.23
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
1000monkeys
Up — $440.21
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
almach
CTRDown — $0
bosona
CTRDown — $0
machinelearned
CTRDown — $0
0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212
Up — $214
mo-money
CTRDown — $0