Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$854.92

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 37 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares11,102

Combined PnL+$953.55

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,642

Combined PnL-$98.63

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 85.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$36.73	47% 248-280 (528)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 91.4¢	$999.9	$1.1K	+$94.1	51% 193-182 (375)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 78.6¢	$972.48	$1.0K	+$48.65	52% 3079-2848 (5927)
MO mo-money	Downavg 76.5¢	$787.49	$1.0K	+$212.51	38% 253-408 (661)
BO bosona	Downavg 74.4¢	$616.45	$760.98	+$144.53	50% 3491-3532 (7023)
machinelearned	Downavg 84.3¢	$698.95	$711.42	+$12.48	31% 268-583 (851)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 79.3¢	$753.89	$696.11	-$57.7	18% 205-911 (1116)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 78.1¢	$572.83	$682.49	+$109.66	54% 206-176 (382)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 78.3¢	$520.96	$555.83	+$39.82	54% 549-476 (1025)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 72.7¢	$532.8	$529.77	+$41.2	58% 243-174 (417)
AL almach	Downavg 78¢	$412.31	$500	+$87.69	39% 256-397 (653)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 72.1¢	$480.58	$502.97	+$22.39	54% 325-282 (607)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 51.3¢	$216.02	$417.58	+$201.56	41% 425-614 (1039)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 83.6¢	$466.24	$397.38	-$68.86	41% 173-249 (422)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.5¢	$205.95	$209	+$3.05	98% 923-20 (943)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 79.1¢	$126.62	$85.31	-$41.3	37% 172-294 (466)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 87.3¢	$73.44	$78.96	+$8.4	49% 2767-2874 (5641)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 89.3¢	$70.38	$78.86	+$8.48	44% 215-274 (489)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 78.5¢	$63.86	$67.25	+$4.05	44% 444-557 (1001)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$46.82	$61.53	+$14.71	65% 869-465 (1334)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 76.5¢	$61.2	$80	+$18.8	49% 439-452 (891)
PA PapeasyARB<$100	Downavg 70¢	$47.21	$44.09	-$3.12	50% 3240-3205 (6445)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70¢	$30.86	$44.09	+$13.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 26¢	$16.34	—	-$16.34
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 74.3¢	$45.76	$44.99	-$0.77	53% 584-522 (1106)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 83.3¢	$48.53	$39.22	-$5.31	53% 3913-3407 (7320)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 66¢	$18.34	$27.78	+$9.45	49% 71-74 (145)