Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Down 59%
2 arb excluded
$5.6K
-$924.41
Smart Money Signal
19 of 32 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 70.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$137 | 58% 243-174 (417) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.8¢ | $872.02 | $824.42 | -$47.59 | 47% 248-280 (528) |
BO bosona | Downavg 33.2¢ | $195.29 | $524.05 | +$328.76 | 50% 3491-3532 (7023) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 60.2¢ | $415.29 | — | -$415.29 | 41% 173-249 (422) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $406.4 | $814.18 | +$407.78 | 41% 425-614 (1039) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 41.8¢ | $393.95 | — | -$393.95 | 52% 3079-2848 (5927) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Upavg 48.3¢ | $305.02 | $237.39 | -$67.63 | 51% 193-182 (375) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.3¢ | $186.7 | — | -$186.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $118.32 | $237.39 | +$119.07 | |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 48.4¢ | $243.29 | $495.32 | +$255.72 | 48% 733-802 (1535) |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 49.9¢ | $217.44 | $234.07 | +$16.63 | 54% 325-282 (607) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 41.1¢ | $167.75 | $217.21 | +$49.46 | 38% 253-408 (661) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 39.9¢ | $288.79 | — | -$288.79 | 18% 205-911 (1116) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 74.2¢ | $585.88 | — | -$585.88 | 31% 268-583 (851) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $153.4 | $155 | +$1.6 | 98% 923-20 (943) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 50.3¢ | $128.66 | — | -$128.66 | 54% 549-476 (1025) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 79¢ | $100.33 | $127 | +$26.67 | 43% 119-158 (277) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 31.5¢ | $62.65 | $100 | +$37.35 | 49% 2767-2874 (5641) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 57.1¢ | $168.73 | — | -$168.73 | 37% 172-294 (466) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $94.8 | $86.44 | -$8.36 | 44% 215-274 (489) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.2¢ | $30.4 | $86.44 | +$56.04 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79¢ | $64.4 | — | -$64.4 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $60.88 | $69.74 | +$8.86 | 65% 869-465 (1334) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.3¢ | $68.38 | — | -$68.38 | 54% 206-176 (382) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 43.1¢ | $25.85 | $60 | +$34.15 | 24% 179-560 (739) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 40.7¢ | $69.22 | $72.81 | +$9.83 | 61% 962-618 (1580) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $46.26 | $75 | +$28.74 | 50% 3240-3205 (6445) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 77.8¢ | $93.55 | — | -$75.7 | 44% 444-557 (1001) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $70.51 | $39.02 | -$31.49 | 44% 419-530 (949) |
Invested
$1,292.52
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$137
Record
58%
243-174 (417)
Invested
$872.02
Value
$824.42
PnL
-$47.59
Record
47%
248-280 (528)
Invested
$195.29
Value
$524.05
PnL
+$328.76
Record
50%
3491-3532 (7023)
Invested
$415.29
Value
—
PnL
-$415.29
Record
41%
173-249 (422)
Invested
$406.4
Value
$814.18
PnL
+$407.78
Record
41%
425-614 (1039)
Invested
$393.95
Value
—
PnL
-$393.95
Record
52%
3079-2848 (5927)
Invested
$305.02
Value
$237.39
PnL
-$67.63
Record
51%
193-182 (375)
Both legs:
Invested
$243.29
Value
$495.32
PnL
+$255.72
Record
48%
733-802 (1535)
Invested
$217.44
Value
$234.07
PnL
+$16.63
Record
54%
325-282 (607)
Invested
$167.75
Value
$217.21
PnL
+$49.46
Record
38%
253-408 (661)
Invested
$288.79
Value
—
PnL
-$288.79
Record
18%
205-911 (1116)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$585.88
Value
—
PnL
-$585.88
Record
31%
268-583 (851)
Invested
$153.4
Value
$155
PnL
+$1.6
Record
98%
923-20 (943)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$128.66
Value
—
PnL
-$128.66
Record
54%
549-476 (1025)
OhioAIInvested
$100.33
Value
$127
PnL
+$26.67
Record
43%
119-158 (277)
Invested
$62.65
Value
$100
PnL
+$37.35
Record
49%
2767-2874 (5641)
Invested
$168.73
Value
—
PnL
-$168.73
Record
37%
172-294 (466)
Invested
$94.8
Value
$86.44
PnL
-$8.36
Record
44%
215-274 (489)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.88
Value
$69.74
PnL
+$8.86
Record
65%
869-465 (1334)
Invested
$68.38
Value
—
PnL
-$68.38
Record
54%
206-176 (382)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$25.85
Value
$60
PnL
+$34.15
Record
24%
179-560 (739)
Invested
$69.22
Value
$72.81
PnL
+$9.83
Record
61%
962-618 (1580)
Invested
$46.26
Value
$75
PnL
+$28.74
Record
50%
3240-3205 (6445)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$93.55
Value
—
PnL
-$75.7
Record
44%
444-557 (1001)
Invested
$70.51
Value
$39.02
PnL
-$31.49
Record
44%
419-530 (949)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $1.4K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $824.42
bosona
Down — $524.05
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $814.18
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
ARBArbitrage — excluded
38791873984189
Down — $495.32
1000monkeys
Down — $234.07
mo-money
Down — $217.21