Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Down 82%
1 arb excluded
$12.2K
$1.2K
Smart Money Signal
28 of 35 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$17.04 | 41% 249-352 (601) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 82.2¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$105 | 58% 243-174 (417) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 84.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$173.11 | 47% 248-280 (528) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 66.8¢ | $572.29 | $830.86 | +$258.58 | 38% 253-408 (661) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.7¢ | $773.51 | $791.99 | +$18.48 | 98% 923-20 (943) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 58.6¢ | $734.21 | $736.19 | +$1.97 | 41% 173-249 (422) |
AL almach | Downavg 82.8¢ | $581.24 | $692.81 | +$111.57 | 39% 256-397 (653) |
BO bosona | Downavg 82.2¢ | $574.98 | $691.34 | +$116.36 | 50% 3491-3532 (7023) |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 67.3¢ | $514.77 | $548.73 | +$33.95 | 54% 325-282 (607) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 63.7¢ | $371.87 | $394.42 | +$22.55 | 18% 205-911 (1116) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 33.3¢ | $294.2 | $205.09 | -$89.11 | 37% 172-294 (466) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.7¢ | $104 | $205.09 | +$101.09 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.3¢ | $190.2 | — | -$190.2 | |
 machinelearned | Downavg 63.4¢ | $180.43 | $284.57 | +$104.14 | 31% 268-583 (851) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 82.6¢ | $163.32 | $197.74 | +$34.42 | 41% 425-614 (1039) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 73¢ | $161.35 | $175.14 | +$13.79 | 49% 2767-2874 (5641) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 57.9¢ | $124.66 | $176.83 | +$52.17 | 53% 3913-3407 (7320) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 52.7¢ | $108.97 | $176.34 | +$67.37 | 44% 215-274 (489) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 63.4¢ | $98.64 | $130.35 | +$32.66 | 24% 179-560 (739) |
 ohioism | Downavg 63.2¢ | $78.03 | $123.43 | +$45.4 | 48% 444-473 (917) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 89.6¢ | $123.35 | $117.37 | -$5.99 | 54% 549-476 (1025) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 72.5¢ | $58.72 | $81 | +$22.28 | 43% 119-158 (277) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 64.4¢ | $32.3 | $50.14 | +$17.84 | 57% 4012-3039 (7051) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 23.9¢ | $67.36 | — | -$33.74 | 61% 962-618 (1580) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $52.1 | $55 | +$2.9 | 44% 419-530 (949) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $45.22 | $40 | -$5.22 | 54% 206-176 (382) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 91.4¢ | $41.22 | $43.83 | +$2.61 | 56% 603-469 (1072) |
Invested
$2,442.85
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$17.04
Record
41%
249-352 (601)
Invested
$1,606.35
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$105
Record
58%
243-174 (417)
Invested
$1,137.68
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$173.11
Record
47%
248-280 (528)
Invested
$572.29
Value
$830.86
PnL
+$258.58
Record
38%
253-408 (661)
Invested
$773.51
Value
$791.99
PnL
+$18.48
Record
98%
923-20 (943)
Invested
$734.21
Value
$736.19
PnL
+$1.97
Record
41%
173-249 (422)
Invested
$581.24
Value
$692.81
PnL
+$111.57
Record
39%
256-397 (653)
Invested
$574.98
Value
$691.34
PnL
+$116.36
Record
50%
3491-3532 (7023)
Invested
$514.77
Value
$548.73
PnL
+$33.95
Record
54%
325-282 (607)
Invested
$371.87
Value
$394.42
PnL
+$22.55
Record
18%
205-911 (1116)
Invested
$294.2
Value
$205.09
PnL
-$89.11
Record
37%
172-294 (466)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$180.43
Value
$284.57
PnL
+$104.14
Record
31%
268-583 (851)
Invested
$163.32
Value
$197.74
PnL
+$34.42
Record
41%
425-614 (1039)
Invested
$161.35
Value
$175.14
PnL
+$13.79
Record
49%
2767-2874 (5641)
FairValueMachineInvested
$124.66
Value
$176.83
PnL
+$52.17
Record
53%
3913-3407 (7320)
Invested
$108.97
Value
$176.34
PnL
+$67.37
Record
44%
215-274 (489)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$98.64
Value
$130.35
PnL
+$32.66
Record
24%
179-560 (739)
ohioismInvested
$78.03
Value
$123.43
PnL
+$45.4
Record
48%
444-473 (917)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$123.35
Value
$117.37
PnL
-$5.99
Record
54%
549-476 (1025)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$58.72
Value
$81
PnL
+$22.28
Record
43%
119-158 (277)
Invested
$32.3
Value
$50.14
PnL
+$17.84
Record
57%
4012-3039 (7051)
Invested
$67.36
Value
—
PnL
-$33.74
Record
61%
962-618 (1580)
Invested
$52.1
Value
$55
PnL
+$2.9
Record
44%
419-530 (949)
Invested
$45.22
Value
$40
PnL
-$5.22
Record
54%
206-176 (382)
Invested
$41.22
Value
$43.83
PnL
+$2.61
Record
56%
603-469 (1072)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $2.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.7K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.3K
mo-money
Down — $830.86
hoodquant
Down — $791.99
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $736.19
almach
Down — $692.81
bosona
Down — $691.34
1000monkeys
Down — $548.73
ply-pm0
Down — $394.42