Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET

Resolved Up. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 43%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

-$93.68

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 28 top traders (43%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,511

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,580

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 51.8¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$265.21	58% 243-174 (417)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 43.8¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$346.79	47% 248-280 (528)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.8¢	$762.62	—	-$762.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.3¢	$578.59	$1.7K	+$1.1K
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$995.03	$1.2K	+$240.62	41% 173-249 (422)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.9¢	$456.18	$1.2K	+$779.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$538.85	—	-$538.85
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 71.3¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K	52% 3079-2848 (5927)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 44.7¢	$554.7	$713.28	+$158.57	18% 205-911 (1116)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.7¢	$318.78	$713.28	+$394.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 35¢	$235.93	—	-$235.93
AL almach	Upavg 10.1¢	$154.52	$1.1K	+$899.35	39% 256-397 (653)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 50.9¢	$573.98	—	-$546.68	37% 172-294 (466)
MO mo-money	Upavg 9.9¢	$101.75	$1.0K	+$927.84	38% 253-408 (661)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 57.3¢	$489.71	$468.66	-$21.06	54% 325-282 (607)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$268.76	$468.66	+$199.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.4¢	$220.96	—	-$220.96
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 61.7¢	$344.39	$364.47	+$20.08	31% 268-583 (851)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.7¢	$277.93	—	-$277.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.2¢	$66.46	$364.47	+$298.01
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 45.5¢	$417.18	$542.23	+$125.06	51% 193-182 (375)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.5¢	$246.8	$542.23	+$295.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.6¢	$170.38	—	-$170.38
BO bosona	Upavg 24.9¢	$158.16	$575.81	+$417.65	50% 3491-3532 (7023)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Upavg 58.3¢	$237.79	$317.93	+$80.14	54% 206-176 (382)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.3¢	$185.38	$317.93	+$132.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.2¢	$52.41	—	-$52.41
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 80.8¢	$376.91	$426.88	+$49.98	9% 83-847 (930)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.8¢	$345.01	$426.88	+$81.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.2¢	$31.9	—	-$31.9
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 54.3¢	$267.24	—	-$238.84	44% 215-274 (489)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 86.4¢	$291.3	$204.86	-$59.85	61% 962-618 (1580)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 60.9¢	$193.05	$231.3	+$38.25	49% 2767-2874 (5641)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.1¢	$92.69	$231.3	+$138.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.9¢	$100.36	—	-$100.36
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 46.1¢	$210.96	—	-$188.16	53% 3913-3407 (7320)
OhioAI	Upavg 30.9¢	$95.12	$165	+$79.63	43% 119-158 (277)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 52¢	$131.74	$121.01	+$11.67	24% 179-560 (739)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 49¢	$106.72	—	-$106.72	41% 425-614 (1039)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 40.9¢	$40.11	$97.97	+$57.86	44% 444-557 (1001)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 72.7¢	$96.55	$107.83	+$11.28	65% 869-465 (1334)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.1¢	$33.58	$107.83	+$74.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.7¢	$62.97	—	-$62.97
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 29¢	$43.15	—	-$15.45	47% 249-282 (531)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Upavg 72.9¢	$114.92	$107.85	-$7.08	53% 584-522 (1106)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.9¢	$78.61	$107.85	+$29.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.3¢	$36.31	—	-$36.31

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,636.9

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$265.21

Record

58%

243-174 (417)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,341.21

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$346.79

Record

47%

248-280 (528)

Both legs:

Down$762.6243.8¢-$762.62

Up$578.5934.3¢+$1.1K

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$995.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$240.62

Record

41%

173-249 (422)

Both legs:

Up$456.1836.9¢+$779.47

Down$538.8551.5¢-$538.85

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,031.23

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

52%

3079-2848 (5927)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$554.7

Value

$713.28

PnL

+$158.57

Record

18%

205-911 (1116)

Both legs:

Up$318.7844.7¢+$394.5

Down$235.9335¢-$235.93

almach

Invested

$154.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$899.35

Record

39%

256-397 (653)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$573.98

Value

—

PnL

-$546.68

Record

37%

172-294 (466)

mo-money

Invested

$101.75

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$927.84

Record

38%

253-408 (661)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$489.71

Value

$468.66

PnL

-$21.06

Record

54%

325-282 (607)

Both legs:

Up$268.7657.3¢+$199.9

Down$220.9654.4¢-$220.96

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$344.39

Value

$364.47

PnL

+$20.08

Record

31%

268-583 (851)

Both legs:

Down$277.9361.7¢-$277.93

Up$66.4618.2¢+$298.01

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$417.18

Value

$542.23

PnL

+$125.06

Record

51%

193-182 (375)

Both legs:

Up$246.845.5¢+$295.44

Down$170.3872.6¢-$170.38

bosona

Invested

$158.16

Value

$575.81

PnL

+$417.65

Record

50%

3491-3532 (7023)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Invested

$237.79

Value

$317.93

PnL

+$80.14

Record

54%

206-176 (382)

Both legs:

Up$185.3858.3¢+$132.55

Down$52.4120.2¢-$52.41

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$376.91

Value

$426.88

PnL

+$49.98

Record

83-847 (930)

Both legs:

Up$345.0180.8¢+$81.87

Down$31.926.2¢-$31.9

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$267.24

Value

—

PnL

-$238.84

Record

44%

215-274 (489)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$291.3

Value

$204.86

PnL

-$59.85

Record

61%

962-618 (1580)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$193.05

Value

$231.3

PnL

+$38.25

Record

49%

2767-2874 (5641)

Both legs:

Up$92.6940.1¢+$138.61

Down$100.3660.9¢-$100.36

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$210.96

Value

—

PnL

-$188.16

Record

53%

3913-3407 (7320)

OhioAI

Invested

$95.12

Value

$165

PnL

+$79.63

Record

43%

119-158 (277)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$131.74

Value

$121.01

PnL

+$11.67

Record

24%

179-560 (739)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$106.72

Value

—

PnL

-$106.72

Record

41%

425-614 (1039)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$40.11

Value

$97.97

PnL

+$57.86

Record

44%

444-557 (1001)

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$96.55

Value

$107.83

PnL

+$11.28

Record

65%

869-465 (1334)

Both legs:

Up$33.5831.1¢+$74.25

Down$62.9772.7¢-$62.97

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$43.15

Value

—

PnL

-$15.45

Record

47%

249-282 (531)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Invested

$114.92

Value

$107.85

PnL

-$7.08

Record

53%

584-522 (1106)

Both legs:

Up$78.6172.9¢+$29.23

Down$36.3174.3¢-$36.31

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 28 top traders (43%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xca990400...b017ea

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794308400

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Up — $1.8K

+$265.21

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$346.79

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

almach

Up — $1.1K

+$899.35

GoodFallen

CTR

Down — $0

-$546.68

mo-money

Up — $1.0K

1000monkeys

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded