Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$557.27

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 19 top traders (74%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,421

Combined PnL+$695

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares205

Combined PnL-$137.73

Down — 74%Up — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 42.7¢	$283.76	$406.23	+$122.47	41% 173-249 (422)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.7¢	$173.38	$406.23	+$232.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.8¢	$110.38	—	-$110.38
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 59.7¢	$371.08	$451.99	+$80.91	47% 248-280 (528)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.7¢	$269.87	$451.99	+$182.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.5¢	$101.21	—	-$101.21
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$290.66	$295	+$4.35	52% 3079-2848 (5927)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$138.88	—	-$138.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.4¢	$151.77	$295	+$143.23
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 48.7¢	$254.96	$400.99	+$146.04	41% 425-614 (1039)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$195.12	$400.99	+$205.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 35¢	$59.84	—	-$59.84
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 54.2¢	$262.61	$293.21	+$30.6	54% 325-282 (607)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.1¢	$103.69	—	-$103.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.2¢	$158.92	$293.21	+$134.29
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$259.41	$203.54	-$55.87	58% 243-174 (417)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$151.82	—	-$151.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.9¢	$107.59	$203.54	+$95.95
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 46.4¢	$209.04	$325.33	+$116.29	37% 172-294 (466)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.4¢	$150.93	$325.33	+$174.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.2¢	$58.11	—	-$58.11
machinelearned	Downavg 57.2¢	$297.3	$520.09	+$222.79	31% 268-583 (851)
BO bosona	Downavg 40.1¢	$165.53	$413.24	+$247.71	50% 3491-3532 (7023)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Downavg 62¢	$168.56	$168.99	+$0.44	54% 206-176 (382)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$63.78	—	-$63.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$104.78	$168.99	+$64.22
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$95.08	$154.29	+$59.2	18% 205-911 (1116)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$75.58	$154.29	+$78.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.8¢	$19.5	—	-$19.5
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 39.6¢	$66.39	$139.98	+$73.59	54% 549-476 (1025)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 53.3¢	$42.71	—	-$42.71	49% 2767-2874 (5641)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$51.85	$63.55	+$11.71	51% 193-182 (375)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 59.1¢	$41.82	—	-$41.82	44% 215-274 (489)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$29.4	—	-$29.4	47% 47-53 (100)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 40.5¢	$28.22	$60	+$31.78	53% 3913-3407 (7320)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 40.1¢	$22.11	$55.16	+$33.04	38% 253-408 (661)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 59¢	$22.05	—	-$22.05	61% 962-618 (1580)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 61.3¢	$25.11	$40.99	+$15.88	53% 584-522 (1106)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 39¢	$14.74	$37.79	+$23.05	44% 444-557 (1001)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 65.5¢	$21.34	$32.57	+$11.23	65% 869-465 (1334)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 39¢	$11.05	$19.99	+$8.94	44% 419-530 (949)
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 58¢	$14.89	$25.67	+$10.78	50% 3240-3205 (6445)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$19.95	$11.94	+$4.5	57% 822-611 (1433)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$283.76

Value

$406.23

PnL

+$122.47

Record

41%

173-249 (422)

Both legs:

Down$173.3842.7¢+$232.85

Up$110.3840.8¢-$110.38

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$371.08

Value

$451.99

PnL

+$80.91

Record

47%

248-280 (528)

Both legs:

Down$269.8759.7¢+$182.12

Up$101.2158.5¢-$101.21

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$290.66

Value

$295

PnL

+$4.35

Record

52%

3079-2848 (5927)

Both legs:

Up$138.8851.9¢-$138.88

Down$151.7751.4¢+$143.23

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$254.96

Value

$400.99

PnL

+$146.04

Record

41%

425-614 (1039)

Both legs:

Down$195.1248.7¢+$205.88

Up$59.8435¢-$59.84

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$262.61

Value

$293.21

PnL

+$30.6

Record

54%

325-282 (607)

Both legs:

Up$103.6942.1¢-$103.69

Down$158.9254.2¢+$134.29

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$259.41

Value

$203.54

PnL

-$55.87

Record

58%

243-174 (417)

Both legs:

Up$151.8251.4¢-$151.82

Down$107.5952.9¢+$95.95

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$209.04

Value

$325.33

PnL

+$116.29

Record

37%

172-294 (466)

Both legs:

Down$150.9346.4¢+$174.4

Up$58.1138.2¢-$58.11

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$297.3

Value

$520.09

PnL

+$222.79

Record

31%

268-583 (851)

bosona

Down

Invested

$165.53

Value

$413.24

PnL

+$247.71

Record

50%

3491-3532 (7023)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$168.56

Value

$168.99

PnL

+$0.44

Record

54%

206-176 (382)

Both legs:

Up$63.7849¢-$63.78

Down$104.7862¢+$64.22

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$95.08

Value

$154.29

PnL

+$59.2

Record

18%

205-911 (1116)

Both legs:

Invested

$66.39

Value

$139.98

PnL

+$73.59

Record

54%

549-476 (1025)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$42.71

Value

—

PnL

-$42.71

Record

49%

2767-2874 (5641)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$51.85

Value

$63.55

PnL

+$11.71

Record

51%

193-182 (375)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$41.82

Value

—

PnL

-$41.82

Record

44%

215-274 (489)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

—

PnL

-$29.4

Record

47%

47-53 (100)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$28.22

Value

$60

PnL

+$31.78

Record

53%

3913-3407 (7320)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$22.11

Value

$55.16

PnL

+$33.04

Record

38%

253-408 (661)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$22.05

Value

—

PnL

-$22.05

Record

61%

962-618 (1580)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$25.11

Value

$40.99

PnL

+$15.88

Record

53%

584-522 (1106)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$14.74

Value

$37.79

PnL

+$23.05

Record

44%

444-557 (1001)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$21.34

Value

$32.57

PnL

+$11.23

Record

65%

869-465 (1334)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$11.05

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$8.94

Record

44%

419-530 (949)

Papeasy<$100

Down

Invested

$14.89

Value

$25.67

PnL

+$10.78

Record

50%

3240-3205 (6445)

ByteBadger92<$100

Down

Invested

$19.95

Value

$11.94

PnL

+$4.5

Record

57%

822-611 (1433)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 19 top traders (74%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9f2e842c...03513a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794308100

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Arbitrage — excluded

1000monkeys

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $520.09

+$222.79

bosona

Down — $413.24

+$247.71

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0.44

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