Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
36
Up 58%
1 arb excluded
$6.2K
$-1.7K
Smart Money Signal
21 of 36 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 69.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$84.47 | 47% 240-272 (512) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 66.6¢ | $773.67 | $709.11 | -$64.56 | 41% 169-241 (410) |
10 1000monkeys | Upavg 73.2¢ | $627.74 | $651.05 | +$23.3 | 54% 321-270 (591) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 59.4¢ | $486.74 | $527.46 | +$40.72 | 18% 201-903 (1104) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 72.8¢ | $504.34 | $508.75 | +$5.87 | 52% 3064-2828 (5892) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Downavg 55.2¢ | $645.15 | $420.56 | -$224.59 | 50% 3484-3522 (7006) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.5¢ | $296.61 | $420.56 | +$123.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.2¢ | $348.54 | — | -$348.54 | |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 40.5¢ | $542.38 | — | -$542.38 | 58% 236-169 (405) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 59.8¢ | $374.6 | $412.19 | +$37.59 | 37% 168-286 (454) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 55¢ | $466.14 | — | -$466.14 | 39% 249-385 (634) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Upavg 98.2¢ | $333.89 | $339.99 | +$6.1 | — 3-4 (7) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Downavg 48.4¢ | $242 | — | -$242 | 48% 721-776 (1497) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 56.3¢ | $140.61 | $210.01 | +$96.1 | 24% 176-553 (729) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 38.9¢ | $181.97 | — | -$181.97 | 41% 424-609 (1033) |
PL ply-pm4 | Upavg 90¢ | $180 | $200 | +$20 | 1% 4-287 (291) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 39.2¢ | $328.78 | — | -$328.78 | 31% 257-580 (837) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 63.7¢ | $171.42 | $152.93 | -$18.49 | 53% 3908-3402 (7310) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 69.4¢ | $120.89 | $147.89 | +$27 | 38% 246-396 (642) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 49.6¢ | $102.1 | $126.52 | +$24.42 | 54% 538-458 (996) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $80.83 | $85.08 | +$4.25 | 52% 189-176 (365) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $57.86 | $75 | +$17.14 | 44% 403-515 (918) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 78.7¢ | $59.94 | $60.61 | +$0.67 | 43% 115-154 (269) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Downavg 27.1¢ | $56.85 | — | -$56.85 | 50% 3236-3198 (6434) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 46.7¢ | $61.12 | — | -$61.12 | 44% 208-270 (478) |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $25.48 | $28 | +$2.52 | 9% 81-844 (925) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $35.75 | — | -$35.75 | 48% 428-460 (888) |
Invested
$1,370.34
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$84.47
Record
47%
240-272 (512)
Invested
$773.67
Value
$709.11
PnL
-$64.56
Record
41%
169-241 (410)
Invested
$627.74
Value
$651.05
PnL
+$23.3
Record
54%
321-270 (591)
Invested
$486.74
Value
$527.46
PnL
+$40.72
Record
18%
201-903 (1104)
Invested
$504.34
Value
$508.75
PnL
+$5.87
Record
52%
3064-2828 (5892)
Invested
$645.15
Value
$420.56
PnL
-$224.59
Record
50%
3484-3522 (7006)
Both legs:
Invested
$542.38
Value
—
PnL
-$542.38
Record
58%
236-169 (405)
Invested
$374.6
Value
$412.19
PnL
+$37.59
Record
37%
168-286 (454)
Invested
$466.14
Value
—
PnL
-$466.14
Record
39%
249-385 (634)
Invested
$333.89
Value
$339.99
PnL
+$6.1
Record
—
3-4 (7)
Invested
$242
Value
—
PnL
-$242
Record
48%
721-776 (1497)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$140.61
Value
$210.01
PnL
+$96.1
Record
24%
176-553 (729)
Invested
$181.97
Value
—
PnL
-$181.97
Record
41%
424-609 (1033)
Invested
$180
Value
$200
PnL
+$20
Record
1%
4-287 (291)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$328.78
Value
—
PnL
-$328.78
Record
31%
257-580 (837)
FairValueMachineInvested
$171.42
Value
$152.93
PnL
-$18.49
Record
53%
3908-3402 (7310)
Invested
$120.89
Value
$147.89
PnL
+$27
Record
38%
246-396 (642)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$102.1
Value
$126.52
PnL
+$24.42
Record
54%
538-458 (996)
Invested
$80.83
Value
$85.08
PnL
+$4.25
Record
52%
189-176 (365)
Invested
$57.86
Value
$75
PnL
+$17.14
Record
44%
403-515 (918)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$59.94
Value
$60.61
PnL
+$0.67
Record
43%
115-154 (269)
Invested
$56.85
Value
—
PnL
-$56.85
Record
50%
3236-3198 (6434)
Invested
$61.12
Value
—
PnL
-$61.12
Record
44%
208-270 (478)
NIULAI4<$100Invested
$25.48
Value
$28
PnL
+$2.52
Record
9%
81-844 (925)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$35.75
Value
—
PnL
-$35.75
Record
48%
428-460 (888)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.5K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $709.11
1000monkeys
Up — $651.05
ply-pm0
Up — $527.46
blue.birds
Up — $508.75
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
GoodFallen
Up — $412.19
almach
CTRDown — $0
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Up — $339.99