Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
34
Down 68%
1 arb excluded
$5.4K
$865.14
Smart Money Signal
23 of 34 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 73.2¢ | $880.63 | $1.1K | +$231.17 | 58% 236-169 (405) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 66¢ | $564.54 | $659.73 | +$95.19 | 47% 240-272 (512) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 50.5¢ | $450.05 | $588.36 | +$138.31 | 41% 169-241 (410) |
AL almach | Downavg 48.9¢ | $188.58 | $343.45 | +$154.87 | 39% 249-385 (634) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 79.2¢ | $319.22 | $340.62 | +$21.4 | 52% 3064-2828 (5892) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 52.1¢ | $227.32 | $304.76 | +$78.53 | 37% 168-286 (454) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 56.4¢ | $178.93 | $282.47 | +$103.54 | 31% 257-580 (837) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 54.3¢ | $223.45 | $225.91 | +$2.45 | 54% 538-458 (996) |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 66.4¢ | $204.44 | $221.62 | +$17.18 | 54% 321-270 (591) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 47.4¢ | $178.81 | $377.14 | +$198.33 | 41% 424-609 (1033) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 64.2¢ | $134.24 | $123.2 | -$11.04 | 18% 201-903 (1104) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 44.6¢ | $92.5 | $140 | +$47.5 | 53% 3908-3402 (7310) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.6¢ | $62.5 | $140 | +$77.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.5¢ | $30 | — | -$30 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $59.91 | $115.4 | +$55.5 | 55% 202-168 (370) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $39.84 | $79.68 | +$39.84 | 38% 246-396 (642) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 45.6¢ | $51.17 | $80 | +$28.83 | 24% 176-553 (729) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 66.7¢ | $49.91 | $72.72 | +$22.81 | 48% 428-460 (888) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 77.5¢ | $52.86 | $65.76 | +$13.04 | 61% 933-598 (1531) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 92.9¢ | $60.51 | $59.23 | -$1.28 | 65% 845-450 (1295) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 84.2¢ | $64.79 | $55 | -$9.79 | 49% 2754-2852 (5606) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $39.67 | $40 | +$0.33 | 49% 68-71 (139) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 65.1¢ | $25.83 | $30 | +$4.17 | 43% 115-154 (269) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 55.6¢ | $37.04 | — | -$33.11 | 38% 344-554 (898) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Upavg 45.1¢ | $22.47 | — | -$22.47 | 52% 189-176 (365) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $12.35 | $13 | +$0.65 | 56% 592-457 (1049) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Downavg 48.5¢ | $11.58 | $23.9 | +$12.32 | 48% 721-776 (1497) |
Invested
$880.63
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$231.17
Record
58%
236-169 (405)
Invested
$564.54
Value
$659.73
PnL
+$95.19
Record
47%
240-272 (512)
Invested
$450.05
Value
$588.36
PnL
+$138.31
Record
41%
169-241 (410)
Invested
$188.58
Value
$343.45
PnL
+$154.87
Record
39%
249-385 (634)
Invested
$319.22
Value
$340.62
PnL
+$21.4
Record
52%
3064-2828 (5892)
Invested
$227.32
Value
$304.76
PnL
+$78.53
Record
37%
168-286 (454)
machinelearnedInvested
$178.93
Value
$282.47
PnL
+$103.54
Record
31%
257-580 (837)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$223.45
Value
$225.91
PnL
+$2.45
Record
54%
538-458 (996)
Invested
$204.44
Value
$221.62
PnL
+$17.18
Record
54%
321-270 (591)
Invested
$178.81
Value
$377.14
PnL
+$198.33
Record
41%
424-609 (1033)
Invested
$134.24
Value
$123.2
PnL
-$11.04
Record
18%
201-903 (1104)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$92.5
Value
$140
PnL
+$47.5
Record
53%
3908-3402 (7310)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.91
Value
$115.4
PnL
+$55.5
Record
55%
202-168 (370)
Invested
$39.84
Value
$79.68
PnL
+$39.84
Record
38%
246-396 (642)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$51.17
Value
$80
PnL
+$28.83
Record
24%
176-553 (729)
ohioism<$100Invested
$49.91
Value
$72.72
PnL
+$22.81
Record
48%
428-460 (888)
Invested
$52.86
Value
$65.76
PnL
+$13.04
Record
61%
933-598 (1531)
Invested
$60.51
Value
$59.23
PnL
-$1.28
Record
65%
845-450 (1295)
Invested
$64.79
Value
$55
PnL
-$9.79
Record
49%
2754-2852 (5606)
Invested
$39.67
Value
$40
PnL
+$0.33
Record
49%
68-71 (139)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$25.83
Value
$30
PnL
+$4.17
Record
43%
115-154 (269)
Invested
$37.04
Value
—
PnL
-$33.11
Record
38%
344-554 (898)
Invested
$22.47
Value
—
PnL
-$22.47
Record
52%
189-176 (365)
Invested
$12.35
Value
$13
PnL
+$0.65
Record
56%
592-457 (1049)
Invested
$11.58
Value
$23.9
PnL
+$12.32
Record
48%
721-776 (1497)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $659.73
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $588.36
almach
Down — $343.45
blue.birds
Down — $340.62
GoodFallen
Down — $304.76
machinelearned
Down — $282.47
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $225.91
1000monkeys
Down — $221.62
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $377.14