Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
37
Down 65%
1 arb excluded
$5.4K
$-7.7K
Smart Money Signal
24 of 37 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 65.2¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.6K | 52% 3064-2828 (5892) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 53.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$11.68 | 47% 240-272 (512) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 58.8¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 41% 169-241 (410) |
10 1000monkeysCTR | Downavg 60.9¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 54% 321-270 (591) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 82.6¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 58% 236-169 (405) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 56.1¢ | $784.59 | — | -$784.59 | 37% 168-286 (454) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 39¢ | $760.4 | — | -$649.73 | 18% 201-903 (1104) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 33.4¢ | $480.45 | $888.57 | +$408.12 | 31% 257-580 (837) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 58.2¢ | $600.84 | $693.58 | +$92.74 | 9% 81-844 (925) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 15.1¢ | $103.05 | $681.6 | +$578.55 | 49% 421-431 (852) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 80.2¢ | $342.92 | — | -$342.92 | 39% 249-385 (634) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 56.3¢ | $518.53 | — | -$476.91 | 53% 3908-3402 (7310) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Downavg 64.4¢ | $545.76 | — | -$545.76 | 55% 202-168 (370) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Downavg 58.8¢ | $237.08 | — | -$234.7 | 52% 189-176 (365) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 73.3¢ | $217.52 | $296.77 | +$79.25 | 9% 64-660 (724) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 47.1¢ | $275.92 | $295 | +$19.08 | 24% 176-553 (729) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 52.3¢ | $241.57 | — | -$241.57 | 54% 538-458 (996) |
HO hoodquantCTR | Downavg 98¢ | $169.54 | — | -$169.54 | 98% 902-18 (920) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 61.5¢ | $239.69 | $162 | -$59.38 | 79% 340-90 (430) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 69.8¢ | $134.12 | — | -$134.12 | 38% 246-396 (642) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 83.4¢ | $133.62 | $211.6 | +$77.98 | 44% 208-270 (478) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83.4¢ | $80.02 | — | -$80.02 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.3¢ | $53.6 | $211.6 | +$158 | |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 42.9¢ | $70.59 | — | -$70.59 | 48% 428-460 (888) |
PA Papeasy | Upavg 68.1¢ | $124.34 | $113.63 | -$10.72 | 50% 3236-3198 (6434) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 53.5¢ | $61.42 | $114.22 | +$52.8 | 44% 403-515 (918) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 48.3¢ | $76.11 | $111 | +$34.89 | 49% 2754-2852 (5606) |
Invested
$1,562.05
Value
—
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
52%
3064-2828 (5892)
Invested
$1,692.66
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$11.68
Record
47%
240-272 (512)
Invested
$1,150.3
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
41%
169-241 (410)
Invested
$1,104.6
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
54%
321-270 (591)
Invested
$1,124.1
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
58%
236-169 (405)
Invested
$784.59
Value
—
PnL
-$784.59
Record
37%
168-286 (454)
Invested
$760.4
Value
—
PnL
-$649.73
Record
18%
201-903 (1104)
machinelearnedInvested
$480.45
Value
$888.57
PnL
+$408.12
Record
31%
257-580 (837)
NIULAI4Invested
$600.84
Value
$693.58
PnL
+$92.74
Record
9%
81-844 (925)
Invested
$103.05
Value
$681.6
PnL
+$578.55
Record
49%
421-431 (852)
Invested
$342.92
Value
—
PnL
-$342.92
Record
39%
249-385 (634)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$518.53
Value
—
PnL
-$476.91
Record
53%
3908-3402 (7310)
Invested
$545.76
Value
—
PnL
-$545.76
Record
55%
202-168 (370)
Invested
$237.08
Value
—
PnL
-$234.7
Record
52%
189-176 (365)
AtomforgeInvested
$217.52
Value
$296.77
PnL
+$79.25
Record
9%
64-660 (724)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$275.92
Value
$295
PnL
+$19.08
Record
24%
176-553 (729)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$241.57
Value
—
PnL
-$241.57
Record
54%
538-458 (996)
Invested
$169.54
Value
—
PnL
-$169.54
Record
98%
902-18 (920)
BoneOhioInvested
$239.69
Value
$162
PnL
-$59.38
Record
79%
340-90 (430)
Invested
$134.12
Value
—
PnL
-$134.12
Record
38%
246-396 (642)
Invested
$133.62
Value
$211.6
PnL
+$77.98
Record
44%
208-270 (478)
Both legs:
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$70.59
Value
—
PnL
-$70.59
Record
48%
428-460 (888)
Invested
$124.34
Value
$113.63
PnL
-$10.72
Record
50%
3236-3198 (6434)
Invested
$61.42
Value
$114.22
PnL
+$52.8
Record
44%
403-515 (918)
Invested
$76.11
Value
$111
PnL
+$34.89
Record
49%
2754-2852 (5606)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.7K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
1000monkeys
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
GoodFallen
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0
machinelearned
Up — $888.57
NIULAI4
Up — $693.58
uninformedfloww
Up — $681.6