Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 34 top traders (65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares8,526

Combined PnL+$282.25

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,101

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15.71	98% 902-18 (920)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 60.9¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$182.46	41% 169-241 (410)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 56.8¢	$864.58	$803.68	-$60.9	58% 236-169 (405)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 51.1¢	$711.08	$763.08	+$51.99	18% 201-903 (1104)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 62.1¢	$690.6	$751.34	+$60.74	37% 168-286 (454)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 65.5¢	$685.98	$712.15	+$26.17	54% 321-270 (591)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.5¢	$466.36	$712.15	+$245.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.4¢	$219.62	—	-$219.62
BL blue.birds	Downavg 71.1¢	$712.67	$643.68	-$68.98	52% 3064-2828 (5892)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 40.3¢	$697.71	—	-$697.71	47% 240-272 (512)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 50.7¢	$427.8	$459.99	+$32.18	41% 424-609 (1033)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR	Upavg 36.3¢	$670.74	—	-$670.74	52% 189-176 (365)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 52.9¢	$357.78	$395.98	+$52.8	53% 3908-3402 (7310)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 62.6¢	$268.68	$335.74	+$78.37	24% 176-553 (729)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 62¢	$319.79	$331.58	+$11.79	55% 202-168 (370)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 48.4¢	$222.8	$460	+$237.2	48% 721-776 (1497)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 88.7¢	$261.05	$227.41	-$33.64	65% 845-450 (1295)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 30.4¢	$343.16	—	-$343.16	31% 257-580 (837)
AL almach	Downavg 71.6¢	$169.92	$203.72	+$33.8	39% 249-385 (634)
OhioAIARB<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$172.92	$153	-$19.92	43% 115-154 (269)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$116.71	$153	+$36.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.5¢	$56.21	—	-$56.21
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 79¢	$177.59	$141.92	-$3.41	61% 933-598 (1531)
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 36.1¢	$333.84	—	-$265.76	9% 81-844 (925)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 37.4¢	$161.52	—	-$120.71	44% 208-270 (478)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 55¢	$125.03	$83.65	-$41.39	38% 344-554 (898)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.9¢	$53.44	$83.65	+$30.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 55¢	$71.59	—	-$71.59
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$105.41	$100	-$5.41	54% 538-458 (996)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.2¢	$36.61	—	-$36.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.8¢	$68.8	$100	+$31.2
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$81.29	$96.52	+$15.23	50% 3236-3198 (6434)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$51.27	$70.62	+$19.35	49% 421-431 (852)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,555.29

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.71

Record

98%

902-18 (920)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,336.41

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$182.46

Record

41%

169-241 (410)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$864.58

Value

$803.68

PnL

-$60.9

Record

58%

236-169 (405)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$711.08

Value

$763.08

PnL

+$51.99

Record

18%

201-903 (1104)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$690.6

Value

$751.34

PnL

+$60.74

Record

37%

168-286 (454)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$685.98

Value

$712.15

PnL

+$26.17

Record

54%

321-270 (591)

Both legs:

Down$466.3665.5¢+$245.79

Up$219.6235.4¢-$219.62

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$712.67

Value

$643.68

PnL

-$68.98

Record

52%

3064-2828 (5892)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$697.71

Value

—

PnL

-$697.71

Record

47%

240-272 (512)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$427.8

Value

$459.99

PnL

+$32.18

Record

41%

424-609 (1033)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR

Invested

$670.74

Value

—

PnL

-$670.74

Record

52%

189-176 (365)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$357.78

Value

$395.98

PnL

+$52.8

Record

53%

3908-3402 (7310)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$268.68

Value

$335.74

PnL

+$78.37

Record

24%

176-553 (729)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$319.79

Value

$331.58

PnL

+$11.79

Record

55%

202-168 (370)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$222.8

Value

$460

PnL

+$237.2

Record

48%

721-776 (1497)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$261.05

Value

$227.41

PnL

-$33.64

Record

65%

845-450 (1295)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$343.16

Value

—

PnL

-$343.16

Record

31%

257-580 (837)

almach

Down

Invested

$169.92

Value

$203.72

PnL

+$33.8

Record

39%

249-385 (634)

OhioAIARB<$100

Down

Invested

$172.92

Value

$153

PnL

-$19.92

Record

43%

115-154 (269)

Both legs:

Down$116.7176.3¢+$36.29

Up$56.2140.5¢-$56.21

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$177.59

Value

$141.92

PnL

-$3.41

Record

61%

933-598 (1531)

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$333.84

Value

—

PnL

-$265.76

Record

81-844 (925)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$161.52

Value

—

PnL

-$120.71

Record

44%

208-270 (478)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$125.03

Value

$83.65

PnL

-$41.39

Record

38%

344-554 (898)

Both legs:

Down$53.4463.9¢+$30.2

Up$71.5955¢-$71.59

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$105.41

Value

$100

PnL

-$5.41

Record

54%

538-458 (996)

Both legs:

Invested

$81.29

Value

$96.52

PnL

+$15.23

Record

50%

3236-3198 (6434)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$51.27

Value

$70.62

PnL

+$19.35

Record

49%

421-431 (852)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 34 top traders (65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xd66f1b84...6aa42a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794306000

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.6K

+$15.71

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.1K

-$182.46

Bonereaper

Down — $803.68

-$60.9

ply-pm0

Down — $763.08

+$51.99

GoodFallen

Down — $751.34

+$60.74

1000monkeys

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$26.17

blue.birds

Down — $643.68

-$68.98

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Up — $0

-$697.71

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $459.99

+$32.18

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

CTR

Up — $0

-$670.74

Trade on Polymarket