Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
31
Down 74%
1 arb excluded
$15.9K
$435.79
Smart Money Signal
23 of 31 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $8.1K | $8.1K | +$8.1 | 42% 240-335 (575) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 94¢ | $2.7K | $2.9K | +$170.84 | 58% 236-169 (405) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 75.7¢ | $739.92 | $939.37 | +$199.45 | 47% 240-272 (512) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.1¢ | $833.18 | $849 | +$15.82 | 98% 902-18 (920) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 78.1¢ | $400.21 | $371.8 | -$28.41 | 52% 3064-2828 (5892) |
AL almach | Downavg 62.4¢ | $216.98 | $342.13 | +$125.15 | 39% 249-385 (634) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 96¢ | $312.96 | $326 | +$13.04 | 44% 208-270 (478) |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 62.1¢ | $252.8 | $290.53 | +$37.74 | 54% 321-270 (591) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 66.2¢ | $306.09 | $258.15 | +$38.5 | 54% 538-458 (996) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 74.8¢ | $200.41 | $257.32 | +$56.91 | 18% 201-903 (1104) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 59.7¢ | $236.56 | $396.13 | +$159.57 | 31% 257-580 (837) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 47.8¢ | $204.33 | $183 | -$21.33 | 41% 424-609 (1033) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.8¢ | $112.83 | — | -$112.83 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $91.5 | $183 | +$91.5 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 35.3¢ | $278.86 | — | -$278.86 | 41% 169-241 (410) |
BO bosona | Downavg 85.9¢ | $146.97 | $152.97 | +$6 | 50% 3484-3522 (7006) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 66.5¢ | $96.15 | $142.21 | +$46.05 | 38% 246-396 (642) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 52¢ | $55.38 | $100 | +$44.62 | 55% 202-168 (370) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $49.5 | $75 | +$25.5 | 50% 3236-3198 (6434) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $49.72 | $66.75 | +$17.03 | 65% 845-450 (1295) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $75.26 | $65.74 | -$9.51 | 61% 933-598 (1531) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Upavg 43.9¢ | $62.29 | — | -$62.29 | 53% 3908-3402 (7310) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 40.1¢ | $107.19 | — | -$107.19 | 37% 168-286 (454) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 91.3¢ | $36.5 | $40 | +$3.5 | 44% 403-515 (918) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $34.65 | — | -$34.65 | 52% 189-176 (365) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 60.7¢ | $13.97 | $23 | +$9.03 | 53% 570-504 (1074) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $14.4 | $15 | +$0.6 | 48% 428-460 (888) |
Invested
$8,089.91
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$8.1
Record
42%
240-335 (575)
Invested
$2,695.98
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$170.84
Record
58%
236-169 (405)
Invested
$739.92
Value
$939.37
PnL
+$199.45
Record
47%
240-272 (512)
Invested
$833.18
Value
$849
PnL
+$15.82
Record
98%
902-18 (920)
Invested
$400.21
Value
$371.8
PnL
-$28.41
Record
52%
3064-2828 (5892)
Invested
$216.98
Value
$342.13
PnL
+$125.15
Record
39%
249-385 (634)
Invested
$312.96
Value
$326
PnL
+$13.04
Record
44%
208-270 (478)
Invested
$252.8
Value
$290.53
PnL
+$37.74
Record
54%
321-270 (591)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$306.09
Value
$258.15
PnL
+$38.5
Record
54%
538-458 (996)
Invested
$200.41
Value
$257.32
PnL
+$56.91
Record
18%
201-903 (1104)
machinelearnedInvested
$236.56
Value
$396.13
PnL
+$159.57
Record
31%
257-580 (837)
Invested
$204.33
Value
$183
PnL
-$21.33
Record
41%
424-609 (1033)
Both legs:
Invested
$278.86
Value
—
PnL
-$278.86
Record
41%
169-241 (410)
Invested
$146.97
Value
$152.97
PnL
+$6
Record
50%
3484-3522 (7006)
Invested
$96.15
Value
$142.21
PnL
+$46.05
Record
38%
246-396 (642)
Invested
$55.38
Value
$100
PnL
+$44.62
Record
55%
202-168 (370)
Invested
$49.5
Value
$75
PnL
+$25.5
Record
50%
3236-3198 (6434)
Invested
$49.72
Value
$66.75
PnL
+$17.03
Record
65%
845-450 (1295)
Invested
$75.26
Value
$65.74
PnL
-$9.51
Record
61%
933-598 (1531)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$62.29
Value
—
PnL
-$62.29
Record
53%
3908-3402 (7310)
Invested
$107.19
Value
—
PnL
-$107.19
Record
37%
168-286 (454)
Invested
$36.5
Value
$40
PnL
+$3.5
Record
44%
403-515 (918)
Invested
$34.65
Value
—
PnL
-$34.65
Record
52%
189-176 (365)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.97
Value
$23
PnL
+$9.03
Record
53%
570-504 (1074)
ohioism<$100Invested
$14.4
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.6
Record
48%
428-460 (888)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $8.1K
Bonereaper
Down — $2.9K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $939.37
hoodquant
Down — $849
blue.birds
Down — $371.8
almach
Down — $342.13
wzbbb
Down — $326
1000monkeys
Down — $290.53
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $258.15
ply-pm0
Down — $257.32