Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
42
Up 29%
2 arb excluded
$25.7K
$-32.1K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 42 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 34.1¢ | $1.5K | $4.3K | +$2.8K | 49% 421-431 (852) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 77.3¢ | $2.8K | $3.6K | +$820.31 | 58% 236-169 (405) |
AL almach | Downavg 39¢ | $1.5K | $2.3K | +$818.13 | 39% 249-385 (634) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 39.1¢ | $1.3K | $2.2K | +$853.57 | 38% 246-396 (642) |
BO bosona | Downavg 39.1¢ | $1.3K | $2.1K | +$766.37 | 50% 3484-3522 (7006) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 47.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.7K | +$604.51 | — 3-4 (7) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 90.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$140.44 | 98% 902-18 (920) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 36.7¢ | $690.28 | $1.2K | +$519.34 | 18% 201-903 (1104) |
LI Liquidifier | Downavg 41¢ | $455.1 | $1.1K | +$654.9 | 7% 6-82 (88) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $990 | $1.0K | +$10 | 41% 424-609 (1033) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 43.1¢ | $517.21 | $891.42 | +$381.57 | 9% 64-660 (724) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 33.3¢ | $744.77 | — | -$744.77 | 31% 257-580 (837) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 51.6¢ | $587.52 | — | -$530.02 | 41% 169-241 (410) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 39.9¢ | $404.97 | $673.28 | +$280.72 | 47% 240-272 (512) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 55.3¢ | $410.32 | — | -$410.32 | 52% 3064-2828 (5892) |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 40¢ | $300.02 | $364.13 | +$76.75 | 54% 321-270 (591) |
AN antsaslyku | Downavg 23.4¢ | $80.57 | $343.8 | +$263.23 | 38% 344-554 (898) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 65.2¢ | $288.32 | — | -$287.26 | 54% 538-458 (996) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 27¢ | $65.22 | $241.69 | +$176.47 | 65% 845-450 (1295) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 39.4¢ | $94.72 | $240.32 | +$145.6 | 53% 614-535 (1149) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 40.9¢ | $213.62 | — | -$186.32 | 37% 168-286 (454) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Downavg 41.7¢ | $218.76 | $269 | +$50.24 | 52% 189-176 (365) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63¢ | $106.47 | — | -$106.47 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.7¢ | $112.29 | $269 | +$156.71 | |
 OhioAI | Downavg 23.7¢ | $47.85 | $202 | +$154.15 | 43% 115-154 (269) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Upavg 42.3¢ | $353.54 | — | -$353.54 | 55% 202-168 (370) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 79¢ | $132.72 | $152 | +$19.28 | 53% 570-504 (1074) |
Invested
$1,468.86
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$2.8K
Record
49%
421-431 (852)
Invested
$2,791.97
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$820.31
Record
58%
236-169 (405)
Invested
$1,524.58
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$818.13
Record
39%
249-385 (634)
Invested
$1,298.69
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$853.57
Record
38%
246-396 (642)
Invested
$1,306.98
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$766.37
Record
50%
3484-3522 (7006)
Invested
$1,117.49
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$604.51
Record
—
3-4 (7)
Invested
$1,387.55
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$140.44
Record
98%
902-18 (920)
Invested
$690.28
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$519.34
Record
18%
201-903 (1104)
Invested
$455.1
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$654.9
Record
7%
6-82 (88)
Invested
$990
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10
Record
41%
424-609 (1033)
AtomforgeInvested
$517.21
Value
$891.42
PnL
+$381.57
Record
9%
64-660 (724)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$744.77
Value
—
PnL
-$744.77
Record
31%
257-580 (837)
Invested
$587.52
Value
—
PnL
-$530.02
Record
41%
169-241 (410)
Invested
$404.97
Value
$673.28
PnL
+$280.72
Record
47%
240-272 (512)
Invested
$410.32
Value
—
PnL
-$410.32
Record
52%
3064-2828 (5892)
Invested
$300.02
Value
$364.13
PnL
+$76.75
Record
54%
321-270 (591)
Invested
$80.57
Value
$343.8
PnL
+$263.23
Record
38%
344-554 (898)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$288.32
Value
—
PnL
-$287.26
Record
54%
538-458 (996)
Invested
$65.22
Value
$241.69
PnL
+$176.47
Record
65%
845-450 (1295)
Invested
$94.72
Value
$240.32
PnL
+$145.6
Record
53%
614-535 (1149)
Invested
$213.62
Value
—
PnL
-$186.32
Record
37%
168-286 (454)
Invested
$218.76
Value
$269
PnL
+$50.24
Record
52%
189-176 (365)
Both legs:
OhioAIInvested
$47.85
Value
$202
PnL
+$154.15
Record
43%
115-154 (269)
Invested
$353.54
Value
—
PnL
-$353.54
Record
55%
202-168 (370)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$132.72
Value
$152
PnL
+$19.28
Record
53%
570-504 (1074)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Down — $4.3K
Bonereaper
Down — $3.6K
almach
Down — $2.3K
mo-money
Down — $2.2K
bosona
Down — $2.1K
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Down — $1.7K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
ply-pm0
Down — $1.2K
Liquidifier
Down — $1.1K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.0K