Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
38
Down 68%
3 arb excluded
$27.0K
$4.1K
Smart Money Signal
25 of 38 top traders (66%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bigbeliever | Downavg 62.4¢ | $11.5K | $18.4K | +$6.9K | — 9-3 (12) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 66.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$26.48 | 41% 169-241 (410) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 67.3¢ | $1.0K | $968.27 | -$43 | 58% 236-169 (405) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 64.9¢ | $791.53 | $781.49 | -$10.04 | 52% 3064-2828 (5892) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 75.2¢ | $801.37 | $680.16 | -$119.9 | 18% 201-903 (1104) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 54¢ | $548.59 | $602.54 | +$53.95 | 31% 257-580 (837) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 65.6¢ | $584.65 | $579.55 | -$5.1 | 37% 168-286 (454) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 40.7¢ | $797.75 | — | -$762.67 | 47% 240-272 (512) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 86.3¢ | $452.34 | $524 | +$71.66 | — 3-4 (7) |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 59¢ | $426.66 | $401.9 | -$24.75 | 54% 321-270 (591) |
BO bosona | Downavg 64¢ | $440.44 | $397.18 | -$43.26 | 50% 3484-3522 (7006) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 48.1¢ | $274.03 | $315.91 | +$41.88 | 55% 202-168 (370) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 72¢ | $275.79 | $277.26 | +$1.46 | 53% 3908-3402 (7310) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Upavg 47.9¢ | $369.04 | — | -$369.04 | 48% 721-776 (1497) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 44.8¢ | $321.69 | $214.05 | -$107.64 | 44% 208-270 (478) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.2¢ | $139.65 | $214.05 | +$74.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.8¢ | $182.04 | — | -$182.04 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 48.6¢ | $191.2 | $241.17 | +$49.97 | 38% 246-396 (642) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 69.4¢ | $247.58 | $218.65 | -$28.93 | 24% 176-553 (729) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Upavg 32.5¢ | $374.05 | — | -$374.05 | 52% 189-176 (365) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 84.8¢ | $214.07 | $204.36 | -$9.04 | 61% 933-598 (1531) |
PL ply-pm4 | Downavg 82.5¢ | $200.71 | $203.29 | +$31.68 | 1% 4-287 (291) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 53.6¢ | $172.57 | $177.56 | +$4.98 | 54% 538-458 (996) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.6¢ | $95.1 | $177.56 | +$82.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.3¢ | $77.47 | — | -$77.47 | |
 Atomforge | Downavg 82.5¢ | $154.21 | $105.92 | -$46.42 | 9% 64-660 (724) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 80.5¢ | $124.5 | $100 | -$24.5 | 49% 2754-2852 (5606) |
AL almach | Downavg 71.5¢ | $104.85 | $89.72 | -$15.14 | 39% 249-385 (634) |
PA PapeasyCTR | Upavg 34.2¢ | $177.41 | — | -$177.41 | 50% 3236-3198 (6434) |
Invested
$11,486.42
Value
$18.4K
PnL
+$6.9K
Record
—
9-3 (12)
Invested
$1,161.45
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$26.48
Record
41%
169-241 (410)
Invested
$1,011.27
Value
$968.27
PnL
-$43
Record
58%
236-169 (405)
Invested
$791.53
Value
$781.49
PnL
-$10.04
Record
52%
3064-2828 (5892)
Invested
$801.37
Value
$680.16
PnL
-$119.9
Record
18%
201-903 (1104)
machinelearnedInvested
$548.59
Value
$602.54
PnL
+$53.95
Record
31%
257-580 (837)
Invested
$584.65
Value
$579.55
PnL
-$5.1
Record
37%
168-286 (454)
Invested
$797.75
Value
—
PnL
-$762.67
Record
47%
240-272 (512)
Invested
$452.34
Value
$524
PnL
+$71.66
Record
—
3-4 (7)
Invested
$426.66
Value
$401.9
PnL
-$24.75
Record
54%
321-270 (591)
Invested
$440.44
Value
$397.18
PnL
-$43.26
Record
50%
3484-3522 (7006)
Invested
$274.03
Value
$315.91
PnL
+$41.88
Record
55%
202-168 (370)
FairValueMachineInvested
$275.79
Value
$277.26
PnL
+$1.46
Record
53%
3908-3402 (7310)
Invested
$369.04
Value
—
PnL
-$369.04
Record
48%
721-776 (1497)
Invested
$321.69
Value
$214.05
PnL
-$107.64
Record
44%
208-270 (478)
Both legs:
Invested
$191.2
Value
$241.17
PnL
+$49.97
Record
38%
246-396 (642)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$247.58
Value
$218.65
PnL
-$28.93
Record
24%
176-553 (729)
Invested
$374.05
Value
—
PnL
-$374.05
Record
52%
189-176 (365)
Invested
$214.07
Value
$204.36
PnL
-$9.04
Record
61%
933-598 (1531)
Invested
$200.71
Value
$203.29
PnL
+$31.68
Record
1%
4-287 (291)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$172.57
Value
$177.56
PnL
+$4.98
Record
54%
538-458 (996)
Both legs:
AtomforgeInvested
$154.21
Value
$105.92
PnL
-$46.42
Record
9%
64-660 (724)
Invested
$124.5
Value
$100
PnL
-$24.5
Record
49%
2754-2852 (5606)
Invested
$104.85
Value
$89.72
PnL
-$15.14
Record
39%
249-385 (634)
Invested
$177.41
Value
—
PnL
-$177.41
Record
50%
3236-3198 (6434)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
bigbeliever
Down — $18.4K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $1.2K
Bonereaper
Down — $968.27
blue.birds
Down — $781.49
ply-pm0
Down — $680.16
machinelearned
Down — $602.54
GoodFallen
Down — $579.55
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Down — $524
1000monkeys
Down — $401.9