Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
38
Down 63%
1 arb excluded
$18.4K
$995.44
Smart Money Signal
24 of 38 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bigbeliever | Downavg 82.9¢ | $8.6K | $10.4K | +$1.8K | — 8-3 (11) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 79¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$72.34 | 52% 3043-2807 (5850) |
BO bosona | Downavg 72.2¢ | $886.06 | $896.15 | +$10.08 | 50% 3474-3513 (6987) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 77.2¢ | $793.05 | $855 | +$61.95 | 46% 226-269 (495) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 77.6¢ | $604.96 | $628.66 | +$23.7 | 18% 196-895 (1091) |
AL almach | Downavg 90.3¢ | $729.69 | $620.63 | -$109.06 | 39% 238-378 (616) |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 73.2¢ | $556.67 | $583.21 | +$26.54 | 54% 311-263 (574) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 73.1¢ | $466.67 | $594.24 | +$127.57 | 30% 248-574 (822) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 73.2¢ | $410.83 | $446.27 | +$35.44 | 54% 518-449 (967) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 75.4¢ | $591.11 | $440.38 | -$120.59 | 58% 228-164 (392) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 79.6¢ | $498.29 | $432.07 | -$43.72 | 42% 166-231 (397) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 65¢ | $206.18 | $253.5 | +$47.32 | 50% 177-175 (352) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 93.9¢ | $233.09 | $214.37 | -$18.72 | 65% 811-445 (1256) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 39.1¢ | $738.6 | — | -$577.49 | 49% 409-418 (827) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 75.4¢ | $180.52 | $158.36 | -$22.16 | 37% 163-278 (441) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 77.5¢ | $142.5 | $160 | +$17.5 | 49% 2736-2830 (5566) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 16.5¢ | $181.08 | $84.99 | -$96.08 | 38% 239-389 (628) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 89.3¢ | $75.87 | $84.99 | +$9.12 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.5¢ | $105.21 | — | -$105.21 | |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 70.3¢ | $84.93 | $80.1 | +$0.69 | 43% 200-266 (466) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $59.82 | $70 | +$10.18 | 53% 3902-3396 (7298) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $66.24 | $73.6 | +$7.36 | 79% 328-89 (417) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $40.92 | $35.25 | -$5.67 | 50% 3231-3190 (6421) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100 | Upavg 31.4¢ | $84.34 | — | -$84.34 | 55% 195-162 (357) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 95.2¢ | $34.43 | $26.17 | -$1.29 | 56% 571-449 (1020) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 31.6¢ | $43.65 | — | -$43.65 | 44% 394-503 (897) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $13.81 | $12.3 | -$1.52 | 37% 202-339 (541) |
Invested
$8,618.41
Value
$10.4K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
—
8-3 (11)
Invested
$1,239.53
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$72.34
Record
52%
3043-2807 (5850)
Invested
$886.06
Value
$896.15
PnL
+$10.08
Record
50%
3474-3513 (6987)
Invested
$793.05
Value
$855
PnL
+$61.95
Record
46%
226-269 (495)
Invested
$604.96
Value
$628.66
PnL
+$23.7
Record
18%
196-895 (1091)
Invested
$729.69
Value
$620.63
PnL
-$109.06
Record
39%
238-378 (616)
Invested
$556.67
Value
$583.21
PnL
+$26.54
Record
54%
311-263 (574)
machinelearnedInvested
$466.67
Value
$594.24
PnL
+$127.57
Record
30%
248-574 (822)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$410.83
Value
$446.27
PnL
+$35.44
Record
54%
518-449 (967)
Invested
$591.11
Value
$440.38
PnL
-$120.59
Record
58%
228-164 (392)
Invested
$498.29
Value
$432.07
PnL
-$43.72
Record
42%
166-231 (397)
Invested
$206.18
Value
$253.5
PnL
+$47.32
Record
50%
177-175 (352)
Invested
$233.09
Value
$214.37
PnL
-$18.72
Record
65%
811-445 (1256)
Invested
$738.6
Value
—
PnL
-$577.49
Record
49%
409-418 (827)
Invested
$180.52
Value
$158.36
PnL
-$22.16
Record
37%
163-278 (441)
Invested
$142.5
Value
$160
PnL
+$17.5
Record
49%
2736-2830 (5566)
Invested
$181.08
Value
$84.99
PnL
-$96.08
Record
38%
239-389 (628)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.93
Value
$80.1
PnL
+$0.69
Record
43%
200-266 (466)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$59.82
Value
$70
PnL
+$10.18
Record
53%
3902-3396 (7298)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$66.24
Value
$73.6
PnL
+$7.36
Record
79%
328-89 (417)
Invested
$40.92
Value
$35.25
PnL
-$5.67
Record
50%
3231-3190 (6421)
Invested
$84.34
Value
—
PnL
-$84.34
Record
55%
195-162 (357)
Invested
$34.43
Value
$26.17
PnL
-$1.29
Record
56%
571-449 (1020)
Invested
$43.65
Value
—
PnL
-$43.65
Record
44%
394-503 (897)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$13.81
Value
$12.3
PnL
-$1.52
Record
37%
202-339 (541)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
bigbeliever
Down — $10.4K
blue.birds
Down — $1.3K
bosona
Down — $896.15
CrouchPredictions
Down — $855
ply-pm0
Down — $628.66
almach
Down — $620.63
1000monkeys
Down — $583.21
machinelearned
Down — $594.24
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $446.27
Bonereaper
Down — $440.38