Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Down 58%
2 arb excluded
$5.2K
-$612.86
Smart Money Signal
19 of 33 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 78¢ | $881.48 | $833.53 | -$47.95 | 58% 228-164 (392) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 59.1¢ | $533.65 | $657.01 | +$123.36 | 46% 226-269 (495) |
AL almach | Downavg 75.7¢ | $531.47 | $656.29 | +$124.81 | 39% 238-378 (616) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 66.4¢ | $278.59 | $419.6 | +$141.01 | 30% 248-574 (822) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 70.3¢ | $339.68 | $369.55 | +$29.87 | 18% 196-895 (1091) |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 66.4¢ | $322.09 | $363.75 | +$41.66 | 54% 311-263 (574) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 59.7¢ | $331.13 | $346.26 | +$15.13 | 52% 3043-2807 (5850) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 65.3¢ | $272.9 | $311.41 | +$38.5 | 54% 518-449 (967) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $284.13 | $287 | +$2.87 | 98% 884-17 (901) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 34.1¢ | $471.13 | — | -$452.13 | 42% 166-231 (397) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 70.3¢ | $163.36 | $197.84 | +$48.58 | 53% 3902-3396 (7298) |
BO bosona | Downavg 69¢ | $170.18 | $194.11 | +$23.93 | 50% 3474-3513 (6987) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Upavg 41¢ | $179.9 | — | -$179.9 | 55% 195-162 (357) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $179.53 | $162.56 | -$16.97 | 43% 200-266 (466) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.1¢ | $120.4 | $162.56 | +$42.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.7¢ | $59.13 | — | -$59.13 | |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 31.3¢ | $222.44 | — | -$199.94 | 37% 163-278 (441) |
PA PapeasyARB<$100 | Downavg 80.2¢ | $111.53 | $96.05 | -$15.48 | 50% 3231-3190 (6421) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.2¢ | $77.05 | $96.05 | +$19 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.1¢ | $34.48 | — | -$34.48 | |
 OhioAI | Downavg 66.1¢ | $82.66 | $120 | +$37.34 | 42% 108-149 (257) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $96.1 | $68.99 | -$16.6 | 61% 903-581 (1484) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Upavg 36.6¢ | $79.64 | — | -$79.64 | 50% 177-175 (352) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $41.92 | $55.91 | +$13.99 | 65% 811-445 (1256) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $14.37 | $22.46 | +$8.09 | 38% 239-389 (628) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | 57% 3992-3026 (7018) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 66.1¢ | $13.88 | $21 | +$7.12 | 53% 551-490 (1041) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $13.05 | $16.11 | +$3.06 | 8% 60-658 (718) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 56.5¢ | $8.06 | $14.25 | +$6.19 | 38% 335-541 (876) |
Invested
$881.48
Value
$833.53
PnL
-$47.95
Record
58%
228-164 (392)
Invested
$533.65
Value
$657.01
PnL
+$123.36
Record
46%
226-269 (495)
Invested
$531.47
Value
$656.29
PnL
+$124.81
Record
39%
238-378 (616)
machinelearnedInvested
$278.59
Value
$419.6
PnL
+$141.01
Record
30%
248-574 (822)
Invested
$339.68
Value
$369.55
PnL
+$29.87
Record
18%
196-895 (1091)
Invested
$322.09
Value
$363.75
PnL
+$41.66
Record
54%
311-263 (574)
Invested
$331.13
Value
$346.26
PnL
+$15.13
Record
52%
3043-2807 (5850)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$272.9
Value
$311.41
PnL
+$38.5
Record
54%
518-449 (967)
Invested
$284.13
Value
$287
PnL
+$2.87
Record
98%
884-17 (901)
Invested
$471.13
Value
—
PnL
-$452.13
Record
42%
166-231 (397)
FairValueMachineInvested
$163.36
Value
$197.84
PnL
+$48.58
Record
53%
3902-3396 (7298)
Invested
$170.18
Value
$194.11
PnL
+$23.93
Record
50%
3474-3513 (6987)
Invested
$179.9
Value
—
PnL
-$179.9
Record
55%
195-162 (357)
Invested
$179.53
Value
$162.56
PnL
-$16.97
Record
43%
200-266 (466)
Both legs:
Invested
$222.44
Value
—
PnL
-$199.94
Record
37%
163-278 (441)
Invested
$111.53
Value
$96.05
PnL
-$15.48
Record
50%
3231-3190 (6421)
Both legs:
OhioAIInvested
$82.66
Value
$120
PnL
+$37.34
Record
42%
108-149 (257)
Invested
$96.1
Value
$68.99
PnL
-$16.6
Record
61%
903-581 (1484)
Invested
$79.64
Value
—
PnL
-$79.64
Record
50%
177-175 (352)
Invested
$41.92
Value
$55.91
PnL
+$13.99
Record
65%
811-445 (1256)
Invested
$14.37
Value
$22.46
PnL
+$8.09
Record
38%
239-389 (628)
Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$10
Record
57%
3992-3026 (7018)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.88
Value
$21
PnL
+$7.12
Record
53%
551-490 (1041)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$13.05
Value
$16.11
PnL
+$3.06
Record
8%
60-658 (718)
Invested
$8.06
Value
$14.25
PnL
+$6.19
Record
38%
335-541 (876)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $833.53
CrouchPredictions
Down — $657.01
almach
Down — $656.29
machinelearned
Down — $419.6
ply-pm0
Down — $369.55
1000monkeys
Down — $363.75
blue.birds
Down — $346.26
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $311.41
hoodquant
Down — $287
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0