Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Up 63%
4 arb excluded
$4.4K
-$637.96
Smart Money Signal
15 of 24 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 89.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$38.16 | 58% 228-164 (392) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 77.2¢ | $737.76 | $746.23 | +$8.47 | 46% 226-269 (495) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 56.4¢ | $225.31 | $369 | +$143.69 | 50% 177-175 (352) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $340.51 | $350 | +$9.5 | 30% 248-574 (822) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.8¢ | $185.01 | — | -$185.01 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.4¢ | $155.5 | $350 | +$194.5 | |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 78.2¢ | $316.99 | $277.61 | -$39.39 | 52% 3043-2807 (5850) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 60.2¢ | $257.55 | $257.08 | -$0.47 | 54% 518-449 (967) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 44.9¢ | $250.99 | — | -$250.99 | 42% 166-231 (397) |
10 1000monkeysCTR | Downavg 38.8¢ | $222.36 | — | -$222.36 | 54% 311-263 (574) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $103.54 | $128.03 | +$24.49 | 50% 3474-3513 (6987) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $62.74 | $128.03 | +$65.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 6¢ | $40.81 | — | -$40.81 | |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 40.5¢ | $173.08 | — | -$155.68 | 18% 196-895 (1091) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 45.6¢ | $58.8 | $128.95 | +$70.15 | 43% 200-266 (466) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 46.5¢ | $86.63 | $119.12 | +$32.49 | 37% 163-278 (441) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.5¢ | $55.37 | $119.12 | +$63.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.5¢ | $31.26 | — | -$31.26 | |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $81.74 | $81.49 | -$0.25 | 38% 239-389 (628) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $95.92 | — | -$95.92 | 39% 238-378 (616) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Downavg 52.7¢ | $155.96 | — | -$155.96 | 55% 195-162 (357) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 79.7¢ | $43.97 | $55.15 | +$11.18 | 65% 811-445 (1256) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $48 | $50 | +$2 | 53% 3902-3396 (7298) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42¢ | $21 | $50 | +$29 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45¢ | $27 | — | -$27 | |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $24.4 | $40 | +$15.6 | 57% 3992-3026 (7018) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $27 | — | -$27 | 49% 2736-2830 (5566) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $20.8 | $40 | +$19.2 | 48% 414-448 (862) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $21.47 | $45.67 | +$24.21 | 50% 3231-3190 (6421) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $8.85 | $14.05 | +$5.2 | 44% 416-524 (940) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $7.4 | $20 | +$12.6 | 44% 394-503 (897) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $31.5 | $10.99 | +$2.92 | 57% 763-564 (1327) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $25.94 | — | -$25.94 | 61% 903-581 (1484) |
Invested
$1,606.79
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$38.16
Record
58%
228-164 (392)
Invested
$737.76
Value
$746.23
PnL
+$8.47
Record
46%
226-269 (495)
Invested
$225.31
Value
$369
PnL
+$143.69
Record
50%
177-175 (352)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$340.51
Value
$350
PnL
+$9.5
Record
30%
248-574 (822)
Both legs:
Invested
$316.99
Value
$277.61
PnL
-$39.39
Record
52%
3043-2807 (5850)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$257.55
Value
$257.08
PnL
-$0.47
Record
54%
518-449 (967)
Invested
$250.99
Value
—
PnL
-$250.99
Record
42%
166-231 (397)
Invested
$222.36
Value
—
PnL
-$222.36
Record
54%
311-263 (574)
Invested
$103.54
Value
$128.03
PnL
+$24.49
Record
50%
3474-3513 (6987)
Both legs:
Invested
$173.08
Value
—
PnL
-$155.68
Record
18%
196-895 (1091)
Invested
$58.8
Value
$128.95
PnL
+$70.15
Record
43%
200-266 (466)
Invested
$86.63
Value
$119.12
PnL
+$32.49
Record
37%
163-278 (441)
Both legs:
Invested
$81.74
Value
$81.49
PnL
-$0.25
Record
38%
239-389 (628)
Invested
$95.92
Value
—
PnL
-$95.92
Record
39%
238-378 (616)
Invested
$155.96
Value
—
PnL
-$155.96
Record
55%
195-162 (357)
Invested
$43.97
Value
$55.15
PnL
+$11.18
Record
65%
811-445 (1256)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$48
Value
$50
PnL
+$2
Record
53%
3902-3396 (7298)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.4
Value
$40
PnL
+$15.6
Record
57%
3992-3026 (7018)
Invested
$27
Value
—
PnL
-$27
Record
49%
2736-2830 (5566)
ohioism<$100Invested
$20.8
Value
$40
PnL
+$19.2
Record
48%
414-448 (862)
Invested
$21.47
Value
$45.67
PnL
+$24.21
Record
50%
3231-3190 (6421)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$8.85
Value
$14.05
PnL
+$5.2
Record
44%
416-524 (940)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$12.6
Record
44%
394-503 (897)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$10.99
PnL
+$2.92
Record
57%
763-564 (1327)
Invested
$25.94
Value
—
PnL
-$25.94
Record
61%
903-581 (1484)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $1.6K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $746.23
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
Up — $369
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Up — $277.61
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $257.08
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
1000monkeys
CTRDown — $0
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0