Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Down 58%
3 arb excluded
$24.8K
$3.3K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 32 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bigbeliever | Downavg 74.8¢ | $12.7K | $16.9K | +$4.3K | — 8-3 (11) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 88.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$43.98 | 58% 228-164 (392) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 79.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$10.45 | 30% 248-574 (822) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 78.5¢ | $1.0K | $965.49 | -$55.21 | 52% 3043-2807 (5850) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 68.4¢ | $566.52 | $566.02 | +$48.13 | 55% 195-162 (357) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 24.5¢ | $755.78 | — | -$755.78 | 50% 3474-3513 (6987) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 63.7¢ | $542.82 | $532.22 | -$10.59 | 54% 518-449 (967) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $716.22 | $350.4 | -$365.82 | 39% 238-378 (616) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.1¢ | $238.57 | $350.4 | +$111.83 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27¢ | $477.64 | — | -$477.64 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 76.6¢ | $448.24 | $433.59 | -$14.65 | 18% 196-895 (1091) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 62.1¢ | $451.3 | $400.76 | -$32.68 | 46% 226-269 (495) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 68.4¢ | $436.17 | $359.3 | -$76.87 | 42% 166-231 (397) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 66.3¢ | $220.66 | $323.31 | +$102.65 | 50% 177-175 (352) |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 64.9¢ | $222.54 | $210.89 | -$11.65 | 54% 311-263 (574) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 18.7¢ | $349.89 | $100.45 | -$249.44 | 38% 239-389 (628) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.1¢ | $60.39 | $100.45 | +$40.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.7¢ | $289.51 | — | -$289.51 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 32.9¢ | $182.39 | $119.99 | -$62.4 | 37% 163-278 (441) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63¢ | $75.59 | $119.99 | +$44.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.9¢ | $106.8 | — | -$106.8 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 85.3¢ | $135.35 | $129.56 | -$5.74 | 61% 903-581 (1484) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 78¢ | $138.3 | $113.78 | -$24.52 | 49% 2736-2830 (5566) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.3¢ | $82.46 | — | -$82.46 | 53% 3902-3396 (7298) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Upavg 28.5¢ | $35.68 | — | -$35.68 | 49% 67-69 (136) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 65.1¢ | $66.4 | $39.73 | +$14.34 | 43% 200-266 (466) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 89.5¢ | $38.15 | $37 | -$1.15 | 65% 811-445 (1256) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $19.8 | $30 | +$10.2 | 24% 172-546 (718) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $13.26 | $18.16 | +$4.9 | 8% 60-658 (718) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $14.16 | — | -$14.16 | 38% 335-541 (876) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $14.52 | $33.77 | +$19.25 | 50% 3231-3190 (6421) |
Invested
$12,668.14
Value
$16.9K
PnL
+$4.3K
Record
—
8-3 (11)
Invested
$1,761.75
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$43.98
Record
58%
228-164 (392)
machinelearnedInvested
$1,303.93
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$10.45
Record
30%
248-574 (822)
Invested
$1,020.7
Value
$965.49
PnL
-$55.21
Record
52%
3043-2807 (5850)
Invested
$566.52
Value
$566.02
PnL
+$48.13
Record
55%
195-162 (357)
Invested
$755.78
Value
—
PnL
-$755.78
Record
50%
3474-3513 (6987)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$542.82
Value
$532.22
PnL
-$10.59
Record
54%
518-449 (967)
Invested
$716.22
Value
$350.4
PnL
-$365.82
Record
39%
238-378 (616)
Both legs:
Invested
$448.24
Value
$433.59
PnL
-$14.65
Record
18%
196-895 (1091)
Invested
$451.3
Value
$400.76
PnL
-$32.68
Record
46%
226-269 (495)
Invested
$436.17
Value
$359.3
PnL
-$76.87
Record
42%
166-231 (397)
Invested
$220.66
Value
$323.31
PnL
+$102.65
Record
50%
177-175 (352)
Invested
$222.54
Value
$210.89
PnL
-$11.65
Record
54%
311-263 (574)
Invested
$349.89
Value
$100.45
PnL
-$249.44
Record
38%
239-389 (628)
Both legs:
Invested
$182.39
Value
$119.99
PnL
-$62.4
Record
37%
163-278 (441)
Both legs:
Invested
$135.35
Value
$129.56
PnL
-$5.74
Record
61%
903-581 (1484)
Invested
$138.3
Value
$113.78
PnL
-$24.52
Record
49%
2736-2830 (5566)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$82.46
Value
—
PnL
-$82.46
Record
53%
3902-3396 (7298)
Invested
$35.68
Value
—
PnL
-$35.68
Record
49%
67-69 (136)
Invested
$66.4
Value
$39.73
PnL
+$14.34
Record
43%
200-266 (466)
Invested
$38.15
Value
$37
PnL
-$1.15
Record
65%
811-445 (1256)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$30
PnL
+$10.2
Record
24%
172-546 (718)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$13.26
Value
$18.16
PnL
+$4.9
Record
8%
60-658 (718)
Invested
$14.16
Value
—
PnL
-$14.16
Record
38%
335-541 (876)
Invested
$14.52
Value
$33.77
PnL
+$19.25
Record
50%
3231-3190 (6421)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
bigbeliever
Down — $16.9K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.8K
machinelearned
Down — $1.3K
blue.birds
Down — $965.49
0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212
Down — $566.02
bosona
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $532.22
almach
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Down — $433.59
CrouchPredictions
Down — $400.76