Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
31
Down 63%
2 arb excluded
$1.8K
$-1.8K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 31 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 63¢ | $420.54 | $444.72 | +$24.19 | 42% 166-231 (397) |
10 1000monkeysARB<$100 | Downavg 42.3¢ | $279.58 | $244.27 | -$35.3 | 54% 311-263 (574) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.7¢ | $121.49 | $244.27 | +$122.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.3¢ | $158.08 | — | -$158.08 | |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 69.7¢ | $212.02 | $243.16 | +$31.14 | 52% 3043-2807 (5850) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 31.3¢ | $328.27 | — | -$328.27 | 50% 3474-3513 (6987) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 35.7¢ | $417.75 | — | -$417.75 | 39% 238-378 (616) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 70.8¢ | $201.84 | $202.45 | +$0.61 | 37% 163-278 (441) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 60.3¢ | $199.55 | $190.14 | -$9.41 | 58% 228-164 (392) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.3¢ | $114.72 | $190.14 | +$75.42 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.2¢ | $84.83 | — | -$84.83 | |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 33.8¢ | $308.51 | — | -$308.51 | 30% 248-574 (822) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 45.9¢ | $344.56 | — | -$344.56 | 46% 226-269 (495) |
PL ply-pm4 | Upavg 98¢ | $98 | $100 | +$2 | 1% 4-287 (291) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 83.6¢ | $153.74 | $94.29 | -$59.45 | 18% 196-895 (1091) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 48.3¢ | $65.19 | $80.34 | +$15.15 | 43% 200-266 (466) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 96.4¢ | $63.4 | $65.79 | +$2.39 | 65% 811-445 (1256) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $52 | — | -$52 | 55% 195-162 (357) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 49.1¢ | $45.69 | — | -$45.69 | 46% 230-265 (495) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $47 | — | -$47 | 79% 328-89 (417) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Downavg 37.2¢ | $86.56 | — | -$86.56 | 53% 3902-3396 (7298) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 71.1¢ | $59 | $42.5 | -$16.41 | 44% 416-524 (940) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 75.3¢ | $38.59 | $51.22 | +$12.63 | 49% 2736-2830 (5566) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Upavg 71.3¢ | $42.5 | $40 | +$2.16 | 24% 172-546 (718) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $30.37 | $35 | +$4.63 | 61% 903-581 (1484) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $34.45 | — | -$34.45 | 44% 394-503 (897) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $28.2 | — | -$28.2 | 48% 414-448 (862) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 27.9¢ | $119.54 | — | -$119.54 | 38% 239-389 (628) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $4.66 | — | -$4.66 | 50% 3231-3190 (6421) |
Invested
$420.54
Value
$444.72
PnL
+$24.19
Record
42%
166-231 (397)
Invested
$279.58
Value
$244.27
PnL
-$35.3
Record
54%
311-263 (574)
Both legs:
Invested
$212.02
Value
$243.16
PnL
+$31.14
Record
52%
3043-2807 (5850)
Invested
$328.27
Value
—
PnL
-$328.27
Record
50%
3474-3513 (6987)
Invested
$417.75
Value
—
PnL
-$417.75
Record
39%
238-378 (616)
Invested
$201.84
Value
$202.45
PnL
+$0.61
Record
37%
163-278 (441)
Invested
$199.55
Value
$190.14
PnL
-$9.41
Record
58%
228-164 (392)
Both legs:
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$308.51
Value
—
PnL
-$308.51
Record
30%
248-574 (822)
Invested
$344.56
Value
—
PnL
-$344.56
Record
46%
226-269 (495)
Invested
$98
Value
$100
PnL
+$2
Record
1%
4-287 (291)
Invested
$153.74
Value
$94.29
PnL
-$59.45
Record
18%
196-895 (1091)
Invested
$65.19
Value
$80.34
PnL
+$15.15
Record
43%
200-266 (466)
Invested
$63.4
Value
$65.79
PnL
+$2.39
Record
65%
811-445 (1256)
Invested
$52
Value
—
PnL
-$52
Record
55%
195-162 (357)
Invested
$45.69
Value
—
PnL
-$45.69
Record
46%
230-265 (495)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$47
Value
—
PnL
-$47
Record
79%
328-89 (417)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$86.56
Value
—
PnL
-$86.56
Record
53%
3902-3396 (7298)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$59
Value
$42.5
PnL
-$16.41
Record
44%
416-524 (940)
Invested
$38.59
Value
$51.22
PnL
+$12.63
Record
49%
2736-2830 (5566)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$42.5
Value
$40
PnL
+$2.16
Record
24%
172-546 (718)
Invested
$30.37
Value
$35
PnL
+$4.63
Record
61%
903-581 (1484)
Invested
$34.45
Value
—
PnL
-$34.45
Record
44%
394-503 (897)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$28.2
Value
—
PnL
-$28.2
Record
48%
414-448 (862)
Invested
$119.54
Value
—
PnL
-$119.54
Record
38%
239-389 (628)
Invested
$4.66
Value
—
PnL
-$4.66
Record
50%
3231-3190 (6421)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $444.72
1000monkeys
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Up — $243.16
bosona
CTRDown — $0
almach
CTRDown — $0
GoodFallen
Up — $202.45
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm4
Up — $100