Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
38
Down 68%
5 arb excluded
$69.6K
$7.9K
Smart Money Signal
26 of 38 top traders (68%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bigbeliever | Downavg 80¢ | $37.8K | $47.3K | +$9.5K | — 8-3 (11) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 98.7¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$45.06 | 79% 328-89 (417) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 80.3¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$12.68 | 42% 166-231 (397) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 85.7¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$244.74 | 50% 177-175 (352) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 81.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$25.64 | 52% 3043-2807 (5850) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 89.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$11.71 | 46% 226-269 (495) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 75.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$119.39 | 58% 228-164 (392) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $1.5K | $1.1K | -$316.27 | 50% 3474-3513 (6987) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74¢ | $848.26 | $1.1K | +$298.48 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.5¢ | $614.75 | — | -$614.75 | |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 80.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$54.15 | 37% 163-278 (441) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 69.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$131.78 | 18% 196-895 (1091) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 19.9¢ | $1.1K | $725.04 | -$359.04 | 39% 238-378 (616) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.9¢ | $609.88 | — | -$609.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.4¢ | $474.21 | $725.04 | +$250.83 | |
 machinelearned | Downavg 85.3¢ | $849.92 | $896.96 | +$47.03 | 30% 248-574 (822) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 81.7¢ | $820.42 | $850.58 | +$30.16 | 9% 79-840 (919) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 79.3¢ | $861.94 | $757.22 | -$53.42 | 53% 3902-3396 (7298) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 19.6¢ | $977.3 | — | -$977.3 | 38% 239-389 (628) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 87.1¢ | $578.17 | $376.34 | -$201.83 | 55% 195-162 (357) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 87.1¢ | $327.73 | $376.34 | +$48.61 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.8¢ | $250.44 | — | -$250.44 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 82.1¢ | $441.55 | $440.12 | -$1.43 | 54% 518-449 (967) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 79.6¢ | $478.43 | $367.87 | -$88.06 | 24% 172-546 (718) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 77.7¢ | $314.27 | $278.56 | -$16.08 | 43% 200-266 (466) |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 77.9¢ | $344.55 | $244.01 | -$23.73 | 54% 311-263 (574) |
PA Papeasy | Downavg 90.8¢ | $190.76 | $192.74 | +$1.98 | 50% 3231-3190 (6421) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 92.4¢ | $190.96 | $179.77 | -$11.2 | 53% 551-490 (1041) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $137.13 | $94 | -$43.13 | 42% 108-149 (257) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75¢ | $70.5 | $94 | +$23.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37¢ | $66.62 | — | -$66.62 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Downavg 71.4¢ | $99.54 | $91.57 | -$7.97 | 44% 394-503 (897) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.4¢ | $65.39 | $91.57 | +$26.18 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.1¢ | $34.15 | — | -$34.15 | |
PL ply-pm4 | Downavg 96¢ | $170.5 | $100 | -$68.49 | 1% 4-287 (291) |
Invested
$37,821.86
Value
$47.3K
PnL
+$9.5K
Record
—
8-3 (11)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,502.47
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$45.06
Record
79%
328-89 (417)
Invested
$2,238.69
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$12.68
Record
42%
166-231 (397)
Invested
$1,767.42
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$244.74
Record
50%
177-175 (352)
Invested
$1,701.46
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$25.64
Record
52%
3043-2807 (5850)
Invested
$1,602.04
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$11.71
Record
46%
226-269 (495)
Invested
$1,456.49
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$119.39
Record
58%
228-164 (392)
Invested
$1,463.01
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$316.27
Record
50%
3474-3513 (6987)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,452.42
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$54.15
Record
37%
163-278 (441)
Invested
$1,180.74
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$131.78
Record
18%
196-895 (1091)
Invested
$1,084.08
Value
$725.04
PnL
-$359.04
Record
39%
238-378 (616)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$849.92
Value
$896.96
PnL
+$47.03
Record
30%
248-574 (822)
NIULAI4Invested
$820.42
Value
$850.58
PnL
+$30.16
Record
9%
79-840 (919)
FairValueMachineInvested
$861.94
Value
$757.22
PnL
-$53.42
Record
53%
3902-3396 (7298)
Invested
$977.3
Value
—
PnL
-$977.3
Record
38%
239-389 (628)
Invested
$578.17
Value
$376.34
PnL
-$201.83
Record
55%
195-162 (357)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$441.55
Value
$440.12
PnL
-$1.43
Record
54%
518-449 (967)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$478.43
Value
$367.87
PnL
-$88.06
Record
24%
172-546 (718)
Invested
$314.27
Value
$278.56
PnL
-$16.08
Record
43%
200-266 (466)
Invested
$344.55
Value
$244.01
PnL
-$23.73
Record
54%
311-263 (574)
Invested
$190.76
Value
$192.74
PnL
+$1.98
Record
50%
3231-3190 (6421)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$190.96
Value
$179.77
PnL
-$11.2
Record
53%
551-490 (1041)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$137.13
Value
$94
PnL
-$43.13
Record
42%
108-149 (257)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.54
Value
$91.57
PnL
-$7.97
Record
44%
394-503 (897)
Both legs:
Invested
$170.5
Value
$100
PnL
-$68.49
Record
1%
4-287 (291)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
bigbeliever
Down — $47.3K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.5K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $2.2K
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
Down — $2.0K
blue.birds
Down — $1.7K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.6K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.6K
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
Down — $1.4K
ply-pm0
Down — $1.3K