Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 24% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
37
Up 24%
1 arb excluded
$18.0K
$-15.8K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 37 top traders (24%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 71.6¢ | $2.2K | $2.6K | +$330.38 | 58% 228-164 (392) |
AL almach | Downavg 35.3¢ | $1.2K | $2.5K | +$1.3K | 39% 238-378 (616) |
BO bosona | Downavg 35.3¢ | $1.1K | $2.5K | +$1.4K | 50% 3474-3513 (6987) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 35.2¢ | $1.1K | $2.5K | +$1.4K | 38% 239-389 (628) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 52.3¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.6K | 42% 166-231 (397) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 43.1¢ | $918.31 | $1.2K | +$270.07 | 37% 163-278 (441) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 47.9¢ | $874.76 | $1.1K | +$192.8 | 46% 226-269 (495) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 59.9¢ | $522.13 | $836.5 | +$320.85 | 55% 195-162 (357) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 47.9¢ | $568.53 | $702.55 | +$134.02 | 18% 196-895 (1091) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 50.6¢ | $662.27 | $659.62 | +$2.01 | 52% 3043-2807 (5850) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 53.7¢ | $614.24 | $726.39 | +$112.15 | 54% 518-449 (967) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.7¢ | $336.97 | — | -$336.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.2¢ | $277.27 | $726.39 | +$449.12 | |
10 1000monkeysCTR | Upavg 47.8¢ | $493.95 | — | -$493.95 | 54% 311-263 (574) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 44.9¢ | $217.29 | $467.05 | +$251.38 | 9% 79-840 (919) |
AN antsaslyku | Downavg 33¢ | $155.84 | $328.64 | +$172.8 | 38% 335-541 (876) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 57.2¢ | $332.18 | — | -$332.18 | 53% 3902-3396 (7298) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 39.8¢ | $177.31 | $445.23 | +$267.92 | 30% 248-574 (822) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 55.2¢ | $221.75 | $251.66 | +$29.91 | 42% 108-149 (257) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 49.8¢ | $89.6 | $180.01 | +$90.41 | 43% 200-266 (466) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 75.6¢ | $189.63 | $176.12 | -$9.36 | 61% 903-581 (1484) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Upavg 55¢ | $166.6 | — | -$166.6 | 24% 172-546 (718) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 34.5¢ | $55.2 | $160 | +$104.8 | 46% 230-265 (495) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 48.1¢ | $107.75 | $140 | +$32.25 | 44% 416-524 (940) |
PA PapeasyCTR | Upavg 56.5¢ | $118.21 | — | -$118.21 | 50% 3231-3190 (6421) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 46¢ | $112.4 | $104.41 | +$12.51 | 49% 2736-2830 (5566) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 43.3¢ | $67.8 | $90 | +$22.2 | 44% 394-503 (897) |
Invested
$2,249.18
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$330.38
Record
58%
228-164 (392)
Invested
$1,191.43
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
39%
238-378 (616)
Invested
$1,119.44
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
50%
3474-3513 (6987)
Invested
$1,118.02
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
38%
239-389 (628)
Invested
$1,611.7
Value
—
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
42%
166-231 (397)
Invested
$918.31
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$270.07
Record
37%
163-278 (441)
Invested
$874.76
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$192.8
Record
46%
226-269 (495)
Invested
$522.13
Value
$836.5
PnL
+$320.85
Record
55%
195-162 (357)
Invested
$568.53
Value
$702.55
PnL
+$134.02
Record
18%
196-895 (1091)
Invested
$662.27
Value
$659.62
PnL
+$2.01
Record
52%
3043-2807 (5850)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$614.24
Value
$726.39
PnL
+$112.15
Record
54%
518-449 (967)
Both legs:
Invested
$493.95
Value
—
PnL
-$493.95
Record
54%
311-263 (574)
NIULAI4Invested
$217.29
Value
$467.05
PnL
+$251.38
Record
9%
79-840 (919)
Invested
$155.84
Value
$328.64
PnL
+$172.8
Record
38%
335-541 (876)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$332.18
Value
—
PnL
-$332.18
Record
53%
3902-3396 (7298)
machinelearnedInvested
$177.31
Value
$445.23
PnL
+$267.92
Record
30%
248-574 (822)
OhioAIInvested
$221.75
Value
$251.66
PnL
+$29.91
Record
42%
108-149 (257)
Invested
$89.6
Value
$180.01
PnL
+$90.41
Record
43%
200-266 (466)
Invested
$189.63
Value
$176.12
PnL
-$9.36
Record
61%
903-581 (1484)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$166.6
Value
—
PnL
-$166.6
Record
24%
172-546 (718)
Invested
$55.2
Value
$160
PnL
+$104.8
Record
46%
230-265 (495)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$107.75
Value
$140
PnL
+$32.25
Record
44%
416-524 (940)
Invested
$118.21
Value
—
PnL
-$118.21
Record
50%
3231-3190 (6421)
Invested
$112.4
Value
$104.41
PnL
+$12.51
Record
49%
2736-2830 (5566)
Invested
$67.8
Value
$90
PnL
+$22.2
Record
44%
394-503 (897)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $2.6K
almach
Down — $2.5K
bosona
Down — $2.5K
mo-money
Down — $2.5K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
Down — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.1K
0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212
Down — $836.5
ply-pm0
Down — $702.55
blue.birds
Down — $659.62