Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Up 68%
5 arb excluded
$6.9K
-$26.55
Smart Money Signal
14 of 20 top traders (70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$1.43 | 41% 232-329 (561) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 94.2¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$35.25 | 58% 228-164 (392) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 84.9¢ | $136.12 | $125.77 | -$10.35 | 46% 226-269 (495) |
10 1000monkeysARB<$100 | Upavg 59.7¢ | $248.72 | $277.25 | +$28.53 | 54% 311-263 (574) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.7¢ | $165.61 | $277.25 | +$111.64 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33¢ | $83.11 | — | -$83.11 | |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 78.1¢ | $284.2 | $236.3 | -$3.8 | 52% 3043-2807 (5850) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 73.6¢ | $199.9 | $177.56 | -$22.34 | 18% 196-895 (1091) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.3¢ | $69.26 | — | -$69.26 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73.6¢ | $130.64 | $177.56 | +$46.92 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 56.6¢ | $161.51 | $152.45 | -$9.05 | 42% 166-231 (397) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.4¢ | $75.23 | — | -$75.23 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.6¢ | $86.27 | $152.45 | +$66.18 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 78.2¢ | $95.09 | $79.99 | -$15.1 | 54% 518-449 (967) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 24.3¢ | $32.5 | — | -$32.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 78.2¢ | $62.59 | $79.99 | +$17.4 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 77.3¢ | $95.71 | $123.82 | +$28.11 | 30% 248-574 (822) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $48.66 | — | -$48.66 | 49% 2736-2830 (5566) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 68.6¢ | $57.26 | $71.61 | +$14.35 | 37% 163-278 (441) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.6¢ | $49.11 | $71.61 | +$22.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 20.4¢ | $8.15 | — | -$8.15 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $52.39 | — | -$52.39 | 55% 195-162 (357) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $1.68 | — | -$1.68 | 37% 202-339 (541) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 82.5¢ | $49.54 | $60.05 | +$10.51 | 44% 394-503 (897) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $45.09 | $42.84 | -$2.25 | 65% 811-445 (1256) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $23.5 | $50 | +$26.5 | 53% 3902-3396 (7298) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 54.9¢ | $19.6 | — | -$19.6 | 61% 903-581 (1484) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $14 | $25 | +$11 | 43% 200-266 (466) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 64.3¢ | $12.8 | $19.92 | +$7.12 | 44% 416-524 (940) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $10.89 | $11 | +$0.11 | 56% 571-449 (1020) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $3.47 | $8.47 | +$5 | 50% 3231-3190 (6421) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Upavg 87.8¢ | $22.33 | $3.08 | -$8.27 | 57% 763-564 (1327) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $0.39 | — | -$0.39 | 53% 551-490 (1041) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $1.32 | — | -$1.32 | 38% 197-327 (524) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 47% 14-16 (30) |
Invested
$3,009.44
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$1.43
Record
41%
232-329 (561)
Invested
$2,431.98
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$35.25
Record
58%
228-164 (392)
Invested
$136.12
Value
$125.77
PnL
-$10.35
Record
46%
226-269 (495)
Invested
$248.72
Value
$277.25
PnL
+$28.53
Record
54%
311-263 (574)
Both legs:
Invested
$284.2
Value
$236.3
PnL
-$3.8
Record
52%
3043-2807 (5850)
Invested
$199.9
Value
$177.56
PnL
-$22.34
Record
18%
196-895 (1091)
Both legs:
Invested
$161.51
Value
$152.45
PnL
-$9.05
Record
42%
166-231 (397)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$95.09
Value
$79.99
PnL
-$15.1
Record
54%
518-449 (967)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$95.71
Value
$123.82
PnL
+$28.11
Record
30%
248-574 (822)
Invested
$48.66
Value
—
PnL
-$48.66
Record
49%
2736-2830 (5566)
Invested
$57.26
Value
$71.61
PnL
+$14.35
Record
37%
163-278 (441)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.39
Value
—
PnL
-$52.39
Record
55%
195-162 (357)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.68
Value
—
PnL
-$1.68
Record
37%
202-339 (541)
Invested
$49.54
Value
$60.05
PnL
+$10.51
Record
44%
394-503 (897)
Invested
$45.09
Value
$42.84
PnL
-$2.25
Record
65%
811-445 (1256)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$23.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$26.5
Record
53%
3902-3396 (7298)
Invested
$19.6
Value
—
PnL
-$19.6
Record
61%
903-581 (1484)
Invested
$14
Value
$25
PnL
+$11
Record
43%
200-266 (466)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$12.8
Value
$19.92
PnL
+$7.12
Record
44%
416-524 (940)
Invested
$10.89
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.11
Record
56%
571-449 (1020)
Invested
$3.47
Value
$8.47
PnL
+$5
Record
50%
3231-3190 (6421)
Invested
$22.33
Value
$3.08
PnL
-$8.27
Record
57%
763-564 (1327)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.39
Value
—
PnL
-$0.39
Record
53%
551-490 (1041)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
—
PnL
-$1.32
Record
38%
197-327 (524)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
14-16 (30)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $3.0K
Bonereaper
Up — $2.5K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $125.77
1000monkeys
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Up — $236.3
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
Up — $123.82
asdcaxz
CTRDown — $0