Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Down 62%
2 arb excluded
$10.9K
$-2.4K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 37 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 98.8¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$14.41 | 78% 315-87 (402) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$17.53 | 41% 223-323 (546) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$212.33 | 40% 402-591 (993) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $763.29 | $771 | +$7.71 | 98% 867-17 (884) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 61.1¢ | $789.79 | $732.72 | -$57.07 | 42% 164-223 (387) |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 61.3¢ | $510.11 | $478.11 | -$32 | 54% 302-258 (560) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 48¢ | $506.41 | — | -$504.54 | 59% 226-157 (383) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 38.5¢ | $380.92 | — | -$380.92 | 52% 3028-2788 (5816) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 77.2¢ | $614.93 | $434.56 | -$170.27 | 45% 219-265 (484) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 61.5¢ | $415.7 | $424.86 | +$26.96 | 37% 160-271 (431) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 38¢ | $384.6 | — | -$349.99 | 18% 193-888 (1081) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 85.2¢ | $267.26 | $249 | -$18.26 | 44% 400-513 (913) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 63.4¢ | $299.55 | — | -$283.02 | 53% 564-506 (1070) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 52.4¢ | $172.31 | $184.7 | +$12.4 | 53% 3898-3390 (7288) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 93.4¢ | $166.62 | $147.62 | -$19 | 64% 784-440 (1224) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 53.3¢ | $111.07 | $139.26 | +$40.33 | 24% 168-544 (712) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $117.46 | $169 | +$51.54 | 55% 190-157 (347) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $148.46 | $130.23 | -$18.23 | 50% 3470-3505 (6975) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65¢ | $84.65 | — | -$84.65 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $63.81 | $130.23 | +$66.42 | |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 42.3¢ | $115.11 | — | -$115.11 | 43% 196-261 (457) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 48.8¢ | $216.15 | $75.29 | -$140.86 | 29% 239-572 (811) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 85¢ | $63.99 | $75.29 | +$11.29 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.8¢ | $152.15 | — | -$152.15 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 59.8¢ | $201.43 | — | -$201.43 | 53% 505-440 (945) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 65.5¢ | $97.19 | $100 | +$2.81 | 49% 2719-2815 (5534) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 93.9¢ | $102.43 | $94.04 | +$4.95 | 61% 877-568 (1445) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 72.8¢ | $70.7 | $85 | +$14.3 | 48% 400-433 (833) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 85.7¢ | $92.9 | $81.4 | -$0.29 | 41% 103-146 (249) |
BoneOhioInvested
$3,021.59
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$14.41
Record
78%
315-87 (402)
Invested
$1,888.64
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$17.53
Record
41%
223-323 (546)
Invested
$1,712.33
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$212.33
Record
40%
402-591 (993)
Invested
$763.29
Value
$771
PnL
+$7.71
Record
98%
867-17 (884)
Invested
$789.79
Value
$732.72
PnL
-$57.07
Record
42%
164-223 (387)
Invested
$510.11
Value
$478.11
PnL
-$32
Record
54%
302-258 (560)
Invested
$506.41
Value
—
PnL
-$504.54
Record
59%
226-157 (383)
Invested
$380.92
Value
—
PnL
-$380.92
Record
52%
3028-2788 (5816)
Invested
$614.93
Value
$434.56
PnL
-$170.27
Record
45%
219-265 (484)
Invested
$415.7
Value
$424.86
PnL
+$26.96
Record
37%
160-271 (431)
Invested
$384.6
Value
—
PnL
-$349.99
Record
18%
193-888 (1081)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$267.26
Value
$249
PnL
-$18.26
Record
44%
400-513 (913)
Invested
$299.55
Value
—
PnL
-$283.02
Record
53%
564-506 (1070)
FairValueMachineInvested
$172.31
Value
$184.7
PnL
+$12.4
Record
53%
3898-3390 (7288)
Invested
$166.62
Value
$147.62
PnL
-$19
Record
64%
784-440 (1224)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$111.07
Value
$139.26
PnL
+$40.33
Record
24%
168-544 (712)
Invested
$117.46
Value
$169
PnL
+$51.54
Record
55%
190-157 (347)
Invested
$148.46
Value
$130.23
PnL
-$18.23
Record
50%
3470-3505 (6975)
Both legs:
Invested
$115.11
Value
—
PnL
-$115.11
Record
43%
196-261 (457)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$216.15
Value
$75.29
PnL
-$140.86
Record
29%
239-572 (811)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$201.43
Value
—
PnL
-$201.43
Record
53%
505-440 (945)
Invested
$97.19
Value
$100
PnL
+$2.81
Record
49%
2719-2815 (5534)
Invested
$102.43
Value
$94.04
PnL
+$4.95
Record
61%
877-568 (1445)
ohioism<$100Invested
$70.7
Value
$85
PnL
+$14.3
Record
48%
400-433 (833)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$92.9
Value
$81.4
PnL
-$0.29
Record
41%
103-146 (249)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
0x50f7
Down — $1.9K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.5K
hoodquant
Down — $771
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $732.72
1000monkeys
Down — $478.11
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $434.56
GoodFallen
Down — $424.86