Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
34
Down 59%
2 arb excluded
$6.2K
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 34 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 69.4¢ | $931.98 | $1.0K | +$117.38 | 59% 226-157 (383) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 63.3¢ | $933.91 | $1.0K | +$95.95 | 45% 219-265 (484) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 63¢ | $917.98 | — | -$899.41 | 42% 164-223 (387) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 57.7¢ | $847.37 | — | -$847.37 | 52% 3028-2788 (5816) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 45.7¢ | $509.77 | $657.19 | +$152.32 | 18% 193-888 (1081) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $483.25 | $490 | +$6.75 | 98% 867-17 (884) |
BO bosona | Downavg 42.7¢ | $202.14 | $471.22 | +$269.08 | 50% 3470-3505 (6975) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 37.5¢ | $300.77 | $408.11 | +$107.34 | 37% 160-271 (431) |
AL almach | Downavg 55.3¢ | $173.74 | $311.24 | +$137.5 | 39% 234-369 (603) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 87.8¢ | $429.09 | $265.24 | -$163.86 | 29% 239-572 (811) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 57.9¢ | $158.41 | $262.36 | +$103.95 | 38% 236-379 (615) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 70.4¢ | $247.37 | $254.35 | +$6.98 | 53% 564-506 (1070) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.4¢ | $57.08 | $254.35 | +$197.28 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.4¢ | $190.29 | — | -$190.29 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 57.9¢ | $137.74 | $231.99 | +$94.25 | 55% 190-157 (347) |
10 1000monkeysCTR | Upavg 54.3¢ | $192.35 | — | -$192.35 | 54% 302-258 (560) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $212.63 | — | -$212.63 | 40% 402-591 (993) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 45.5¢ | $130.43 | — | -$109.78 | 53% 3898-3390 (7288) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 55.6¢ | $77.03 | $101.18 | +$24.99 | 64% 784-440 (1224) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Upavg 69.6¢ | $98.13 | $104.84 | +$6.71 | 44% 385-488 (873) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.5¢ | $42.43 | $104.84 | +$62.41 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.6¢ | $55.7 | — | -$55.7 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 13.9¢ | $157.62 | $92.13 | +$5.37 | 61% 877-568 (1445) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $33.52 | $63.29 | +$29.77 | 43% 196-261 (457) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 72.8¢ | $62.78 | $49.45 | -$13.33 | 24% 168-544 (712) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $60.95 | $75 | +$14.05 | 44% 400-513 (913) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 56.4¢ | $27.68 | $39.07 | +$11.39 | 50% 3226-3185 (6411) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 44.7¢ | $36.15 | — | -$36.15 | 48% 400-433 (833) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 70¢ | $109.29 | $153 | +$43.71 | 41% 103-146 (249) |
Invested
$931.98
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$117.38
Record
59%
226-157 (383)
Invested
$933.91
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$95.95
Record
45%
219-265 (484)
Invested
$917.98
Value
—
PnL
-$899.41
Record
42%
164-223 (387)
Invested
$847.37
Value
—
PnL
-$847.37
Record
52%
3028-2788 (5816)
Invested
$509.77
Value
$657.19
PnL
+$152.32
Record
18%
193-888 (1081)
Invested
$483.25
Value
$490
PnL
+$6.75
Record
98%
867-17 (884)
Invested
$202.14
Value
$471.22
PnL
+$269.08
Record
50%
3470-3505 (6975)
Invested
$300.77
Value
$408.11
PnL
+$107.34
Record
37%
160-271 (431)
Invested
$173.74
Value
$311.24
PnL
+$137.5
Record
39%
234-369 (603)
machinelearnedInvested
$429.09
Value
$265.24
PnL
-$163.86
Record
29%
239-572 (811)
Invested
$158.41
Value
$262.36
PnL
+$103.95
Record
38%
236-379 (615)
Invested
$247.37
Value
$254.35
PnL
+$6.98
Record
53%
564-506 (1070)
Both legs:
Invested
$137.74
Value
$231.99
PnL
+$94.25
Record
55%
190-157 (347)
Invested
$192.35
Value
—
PnL
-$192.35
Record
54%
302-258 (560)
Invested
$212.63
Value
—
PnL
-$212.63
Record
40%
402-591 (993)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$130.43
Value
—
PnL
-$109.78
Record
53%
3898-3390 (7288)
Invested
$77.03
Value
$101.18
PnL
+$24.99
Record
64%
784-440 (1224)
Invested
$98.13
Value
$104.84
PnL
+$6.71
Record
44%
385-488 (873)
Both legs:
Invested
$157.62
Value
$92.13
PnL
+$5.37
Record
61%
877-568 (1445)
Invested
$33.52
Value
$63.29
PnL
+$29.77
Record
43%
196-261 (457)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$62.78
Value
$49.45
PnL
-$13.33
Record
24%
168-544 (712)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$60.95
Value
$75
PnL
+$14.05
Record
44%
400-513 (913)
Invested
$27.68
Value
$39.07
PnL
+$11.39
Record
50%
3226-3185 (6411)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$36.15
Value
—
PnL
-$36.15
Record
48%
400-433 (833)
OhioAIInvested
$109.29
Value
$153
PnL
+$43.71
Record
41%
103-146 (249)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $1.0K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.0K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
Down — $657.19
hoodquant
Down — $490
bosona
Down — $471.22
GoodFallen
Down — $408.11
almach
Down — $311.24
machinelearned
Down — $265.24