Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 100%
$2.3K
$-2.0K
95.8¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.4K | $1.7K | $-1.7K | 56% 32246-25330 (57576) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 62.9¢ | $342.77 | $356.9 | +$14.14 | 55% 15329-12653 (27982) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 99¢ | $495 | $247.5 | -$247.5 | 74% 343-120 (463) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 77.3¢ | $13.18 | $8.44 | -$4.74 | 63% 5301-3080 (8381) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100 | Downavg 64.9¢ | $10.09 | $7.7 | -$2.39 | 59% 2418-1657 (4075) |
Invested
$3,425.4
Value
$1.7K
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
56%
32246-25330 (57576)
Invested
$342.77
Value
$356.9
PnL
+$14.14
Record
55%
15329-12653 (27982)
Invested
$495
Value
$247.5
PnL
-$247.5
Record
74%
343-120 (463)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$13.18
Value
$8.44
PnL
-$4.74
Record
63%
5301-3080 (8381)
Invested
$10.09
Value
$7.7
PnL
-$2.39
Record
59%
2418-1657 (4075)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.