Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 39 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares12,353

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Up17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,771

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Down — 56%Up — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99.1¢	$3.0K	$2.0K	-$999.17	90% 30690-3584 (34274)
NIULAI4	Downavg 62¢	$983.99	$1.3K	+$327.37	75% 10056-3421 (13477)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 45.6¢	$815.55	—	-$815.55	56% 16135-12711 (28846)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 69.1¢	$838.13	$1.1K	+$255.14	53% 14317-12860 (27177)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 59¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$167.21	55% 16469-13550 (30019)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 93.3¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	+$80.16	74% 343-120 (463)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 36.2¢	$337.39	$933.19	+$595.8	59% 65664-46545 (112209)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 42.1¢	$820.85	—	-$820.85	48% 7544-8059 (15603)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 48.6¢	$800.73	$864.68	+$63.94	54% 16835-14299 (31134)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 69.5¢	$882.68	$749.89	-$132.79	51% 12995-12440 (25435)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 68.8¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	66% 103607-54004 (157611)
MO mo-money	Downavg 29.7¢	$330.48	$654.97	+$324.49	55% 53116-43523 (96639)
machinelearned	Downavg 24.9¢	$250.13	$585	+$334.87	54% 10486-8892 (19378)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 35.4¢	$630.68	$378.23	-$252.44	55% 15329-12651 (27980)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.9¢	$241.66	$378.23	+$136.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.4¢	$389.01	—	-$389.01
AL almachCTR	Upavg 65.9¢	$466	—	-$466	54% 50944-42533 (93477)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 6.1¢	$34.7	$430	+$395.3	56% 63570-49662 (113232)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 83.9¢	$387.43	$382	-$5.44	54% 72802-62672 (135474)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 59.3¢	$224.38	$378.26	+$153.88	63% 61343-35675 (97018)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Upavg 44.2¢	$318.72	—	-$318.72	52% 21456-19754 (41210)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 40.2¢	$330.59	—	-$330.59	54% 13995-11927 (25922)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 74¢	$215.38	$164.99	-$50.39	50% 6568-6612 (13180)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 91.6¢	$148.65	$162.26	+$13.61	66% 132660-68751 (201411)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 43.3¢	$86.18	$139.1	+$52.92	52% 14215-13365 (27580)
PA Papeasy	Downavg 28¢	$29.38	$104.98	+$75.6	51% 5840-5500 (11340)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 37.7¢	$48.2	—	-$8.56	61% 99944-63363 (163307)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$2,992.16

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$999.17

Record

90%

30690-3584 (34274)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$983.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$327.37

Record

75%

10056-3421 (13477)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$815.55

Value

—

PnL

-$815.55

Record

56%

16135-12711 (28846)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$838.13

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$255.14

Record

53%

14317-12860 (27177)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$1,257.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$167.21

Record

55%

16469-13550 (30019)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$2,042.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$80.16

Record

74%

343-120 (463)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$337.39

Value

$933.19

PnL

+$595.8

Record

59%

65664-46545 (112209)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$820.85

Value

—

PnL

-$820.85

Record

48%

7544-8059 (15603)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$800.73

Value

$864.68

PnL

+$63.94

Record

54%

16835-14299 (31134)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$882.68

Value

$749.89

PnL

-$132.79

Record

51%

12995-12440 (25435)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$1,207.17

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

66%

103607-54004 (157611)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$330.48

Value

$654.97

PnL

+$324.49

Record

55%

53116-43523 (96639)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$250.13

Value

$585

PnL

+$334.87

Record

54%

10486-8892 (19378)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$630.68

Value

$378.23

PnL

-$252.44

Record

55%

15329-12651 (27980)

Both legs:

Down$241.6663.9¢+$136.57

Up$389.0135.4¢-$389.01

almachCTR

Invested

$466

Value

—

PnL

-$466

Record

54%

50944-42533 (93477)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$34.7

Value

$430

PnL

+$395.3

Record

56%

63570-49662 (113232)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$387.43

Value

$382

PnL

-$5.44

Record

54%

72802-62672 (135474)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$224.38

Value

$378.26

PnL

+$153.88

Record

63%

61343-35675 (97018)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Invested

$318.72

Value

—

PnL

-$318.72

Record

52%

21456-19754 (41210)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$330.59

Value

—

PnL

-$330.59

Record

54%

13995-11927 (25922)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$215.38

Value

$164.99

PnL

-$50.39

Record

50%

6568-6612 (13180)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$148.65

Value

$162.26

PnL

+$13.61

Record

66%

132660-68751 (201411)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$86.18

Value

$139.1

PnL

+$52.92

Record

52%

14215-13365 (27580)

Papeasy

Down

Invested

$29.38

Value

$104.98

PnL

+$75.6

Record

51%

5840-5500 (11340)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$48.2

Value

—

PnL

-$8.56

Record

61%

99944-63363 (163307)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 39 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc0a2f16d...6b7cca

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794215700

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $2.0K

-$999.17

NIULAI4

Down — $1.3K

+$327.37

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Up — $0

-$815.55

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down — $1.1K

+$255.14

1000monkeys

Down — $1.1K

-$167.21

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $1.1K

+$80.16

0x50f7

Down — $933.19

+$595.8

asdcaxz

CTR

Up — $0

-$820.85

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $864.68

+$63.94

blue.birds

Down — $749.89

-$132.79

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