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arcsine-barristerCTRDownUpDownDownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 80%
Total Value
$623.23
Combined PnL
$-10.6K
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares11,344
Combined PnL$-10.6K
Up1 trader
Total Value$623.23
Total Shares623
Combined PnL-$4.86
Down — 80%Up — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $9.8K | — | $-9.8K | 56% 4045-3140 (7185) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 56.2¢ | $1.3K | $623.23 | -$4.86 | 54% 16833-14298 (31131) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 30¢ | $411.3 | — | -$411.3 | 56% 16131-12709 (28840) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 39.4¢ | $719.87 | — | -$326.97 | 55% 15289-12636 (27925) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Downavg 15.7¢ | $25.24 | — | -$25.24 | 51% 5552-5438 (10990) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$9,791.99
Value
—
PnL
$-9.8K
Record
56%
4045-3140 (7185)
DA
dangerously-skip-permissionsInvested
$1,294.53
Value
$623.23
PnL
-$4.86
Record
54%
16833-14298 (31131)
CR
CrouchPredictionsCTRInvested
$411.3
Value
—
PnL
-$411.3
Record
56%
16131-12709 (28840)
GO
GoodFallenCTRInvested
$719.87
Value
—
PnL
-$326.97
Record
55%
15289-12636 (27925)
PA
PapeasyCTR<$100Invested
$25.24
Value
—
PnL
-$25.24
Record
51%
5552-5438 (10990)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf652f2d7...41b360
Slug
btc-updown-5m-1794204000