Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 51¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Up
8
Up 50%
$3.7K
$1.1K
25.7¢ → 50.5¢
+97% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 76marsh | Upavg 32.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.6K | +$568.93 | 61% 23-15 (38) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 2.1¢ | $29.34 | $700.81 | +$672.92 | 65% 130645-70397 (201042) |
10 1000monkeysCTR | Downavg 61.7¢ | $633.72 | $508.74 | -$124.98 | 59% 11420-7847 (19267) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 49.2¢ | $272.51 | $279.92 | +$7.41 | 64% 5030-2825 (7855) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 75.9¢ | $202.18 | $239.97 | +$37.79 | 48% 6887-7490 (14377) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 64.4¢ | $234.53 | $180.37 | -$54.16 | 50% 6436-6457 (12893) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489<$100 | Upavg 8.8¢ | $15.88 | $90.9 | +$75.02 | 75% 295-99 (394) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $90.04 | $52.46 | -$37.59 | 49% 4268-4361 (8629) |
Invested
$1,047.53
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$568.93
Record
61%
23-15 (38)
Invested
$29.34
Value
$700.81
PnL
+$672.92
Record
65%
130645-70397 (201042)
Invested
$633.72
Value
$508.74
PnL
-$124.98
Record
59%
11420-7847 (19267)
AtomforgeInvested
$272.51
Value
$279.92
PnL
+$7.41
Record
64%
5030-2825 (7855)
Invested
$202.18
Value
$239.97
PnL
+$37.79
Record
48%
6887-7490 (14377)
Invested
$234.53
Value
$180.37
PnL
-$54.16
Record
50%
6436-6457 (12893)
Invested
$15.88
Value
$90.9
PnL
+$75.02
Record
75%
295-99 (394)
Invested
$90.04
Value
$52.46
PnL
-$37.59
Record
49%
4268-4361 (8629)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.