Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$12.99

Smart Money Signal

26 of 35 top traders (74%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up26 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares8,682

Combined PnL+$356.57

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,096

Combined PnL-$343.58

Up — 74%Down — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$33.77	74% 105030-37065 (142095)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 83¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$156.75	66% 101003-52901 (153904)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 81.5¢	$621.58	$611.78	-$9.8	54% 16550-13972 (30522)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.5¢	$498.49	$611.78	+$113.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.5¢	$123.09	—	-$123.09
BL blue.birds	Upavg 81.3¢	$491.97	$527.23	+$35.26	51% 12016-11488 (23504)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 72.5¢	$333.07	$399.98	+$66.92	51% 17644-17047 (34691)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.5¢	$289.99	$399.98	+$110
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.7¢	$43.08	—	-$43.08
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 71.5¢	$380.49	$348.57	-$31.92	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 89.9¢	$215.79	$194.01	-$21.78	45% 40037-47965 (88002)
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.9¢	$174.5	$194.01	+$19.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 9.6¢	$41.29	—	-$41.29
AS asdaefef	Upavg 94.4¢	$219.21	$228.33	+$9.12	66% 130579-67519 (198098)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 91.8¢	$211.1	$209.82	-$1.28	58% 63234-46452 (109686)
└ Up leg	Upavg 91.8¢	$192.69	$209.82	+$17.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 9.7¢	$18.4	—	-$18.4
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 88.6¢	$213.03	$203.81	-$9.22	47% 6472-7172 (13644)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 69.7¢	$183.38	$169.78	-$13.6	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 61.3¢	$131.01	$175.19	+$44.18	59% 11247-7714 (18961)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97¢	$169.74	$174.99	+$5.25	89% 29224-3554 (32778)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 71.2¢	$144.91	$159.69	+$14.79	57% 9900-7412 (17312)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$17.57	—	-$17.57	55% 51582-41991 (93573)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 75.8¢	$102.92	$128.13	+$26.7	65% 130170-70085 (200255)
ohioism	Upavg 93.5¢	$151.26	$150	-$1.26	63% 42391-25095 (67486)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 72.6¢	$95.94	$110	+$14.06	54% 13630-11676 (25306)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 84.2¢	$170.13	$100.66	+$1.53	63% 60872-35320 (96192)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 88.7¢	$75.04	$78.1	+$3.06	55% 9813-8139 (17952)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 79.7¢	$74.11	$80.96	+$6.85	55% 51621-42810 (94431)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 23.3¢	$138.32	—	-$138.32	55% 14916-12398 (27314)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 24.6¢	$251.45	$50	-$201.45	56% 77345-59726 (137071)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70¢	$35	$50	+$15
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.6¢	$216.45	—	-$216.45
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 92.1¢	$70.39	$75	+$4.61	56% 60478-47044 (107522)
13 13897651	Upavg 52.8¢	$61.45	$116.33	+$54.89	56% 8747-6830 (15577)

BoneOhio

Invested

$3,466.23

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$33.77

Record

74%

105030-37065 (142095)

Bonereaper

Invested

$2,087.77

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$156.75

Record

66%

101003-52901 (153904)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$621.58

Value

$611.78

PnL

-$9.8

Record

54%

16550-13972 (30522)

Both legs:

Up$498.4981.5¢+$113.3

Down$123.0924.5¢-$123.09

blue.birds

Invested

$491.97

Value

$527.23

PnL

+$35.26

Record

51%

12016-11488 (23504)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$333.07

Value

$399.98

PnL

+$66.92

Record

51%

17644-17047 (34691)

Both legs:

Up$289.9972.5¢+$110

Down$43.0810.7¢-$43.08

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$380.49

Value

$348.57

PnL

-$31.92

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$215.79

Value

$194.01

PnL

-$21.78

Record

45%

40037-47965 (88002)

Both legs:

Up$174.589.9¢+$19.51

Down$41.299.6¢-$41.29

asdaefef

Invested

$219.21

Value

$228.33

PnL

+$9.12

Record

66%

130579-67519 (198098)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$211.1

Value

$209.82

PnL

-$1.28

Record

58%

63234-46452 (109686)

Both legs:

Up$192.6991.8¢+$17.13

Down$18.49.7¢-$18.4

asdcaxz

Invested

$213.03

Value

$203.81

PnL

-$9.22

Record

47%

6472-7172 (13644)

ply-pm0

Invested

$183.38

Value

$169.78

PnL

-$13.6

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

1000monkeys

Invested

$131.01

Value

$175.19

PnL

+$44.18

Record

59%

11247-7714 (18961)

hoodquant

Invested

$169.74

Value

$174.99

PnL

+$5.25

Record

89%

29224-3554 (32778)

wzbbb

Invested

$144.91

Value

$159.69

PnL

+$14.79

Record

57%

9900-7412 (17312)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.57

Value

—

PnL

-$17.57

Record

55%

51582-41991 (93573)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$102.92

Value

$128.13

PnL

+$26.7

Record

65%

130170-70085 (200255)

ohioism

Invested

$151.26

Value

$150

PnL

-$1.26

Record

63%

42391-25095 (67486)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$95.94

Value

$110

PnL

+$14.06

Record

54%

13630-11676 (25306)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$170.13

Value

$100.66

PnL

+$1.53

Record

63%

60872-35320 (96192)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$75.04

Value

$78.1

PnL

+$3.06

Record

55%

9813-8139 (17952)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$74.11

Value

$80.96

PnL

+$6.85

Record

55%

51621-42810 (94431)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$138.32

Value

—

PnL

-$138.32

Record

55%

14916-12398 (27314)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$251.45

Value

$50

PnL

-$201.45

Record

56%

77345-59726 (137071)

Both legs:

Up$3570¢+$15

Down$216.4524.6¢-$216.45

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$70.39

Value

$75

PnL

+$4.61

Record

56%

60478-47044 (107522)

13897651

Invested

$61.45

Value

$116.33

PnL

+$54.89

Record

56%

8747-6830 (15577)

Smart Money Signal

26 of 35 top traders (74%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9a2b67c8...3f9947

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793995200

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Up — $3.5K

+$33.77

Bonereaper

Up — $2.2K

+$156.75

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$9.8

blue.birds

Up — $527.23

+$35.26

gansinimen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$66.92

CrouchPredictions

Up — $348.57

-$31.92

pspspsps5

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$21.78

asdaefef

Up — $228.33

+$9.12

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$1.28

asdcaxz

Up — $203.81

-$9.22

Trade on Polymarket