Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 90%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$418.1

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 33 top traders (82%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down27 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares6,775

Combined PnL+$163.52

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares537

Combined PnL+$254.57

Down — 82%Up — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$16.2	56% 30306-23637 (53943)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 59.5¢	$613.88	$617.17	+$3.29	51% 11778-11240 (23018)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 54.8¢	$545.37	$557.34	+$11.97	54% 16469-13864 (30333)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 66¢	$561.09	$552.86	-$8.23	66% 100884-52834 (153718)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 58.6¢	$487.08	$503.33	+$16.25	59% 11119-7628 (18747)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 61¢	$486.77	$487.39	+$0.62	67% 102181-50515 (152696)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 58.1¢	$402.07	$388.77	-$13.31	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 59.9¢	$270.67	$293.14	+$22.47	63% 60645-35108 (95753)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 68.4¢	$340.56	$287.01	-$53.55	48% 6262-6858 (13120)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 40.1¢	$349.02	—	-$349.02	55% 14811-12344 (27155)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 68.9¢	$233.38	$249.99	+$16.61	54% 13525-11628 (25153)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99.1¢	$227.86	$230	+$2.14	89% 28835-3545 (32380)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 59.3¢	$225.43	$207.29	-$18.15	55% 9721-8062 (17783)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.3¢	$122.98	$207.29	+$84.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$102.46	—	-$102.46
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 55.8¢	$250.7	$163.65	-$87.05	52% 10443-9803 (20246)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.1¢	$95.01	$163.65	+$68.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.8¢	$155.69	—	-$155.69
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$197.69	$225.9	+$28.21	56% 8539-6661 (15200)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$125.47	$225.9	+$100.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.2¢	$72.22	—	-$72.22
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 89.2¢	$223.32	$190	-$33.32	65% 129830-69807 (199637)
PA PapeasyARB<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$82.1	$94.86	+$12.76	49% 4070-4188 (8258)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.1¢	$59.88	$94.86	+$34.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.8¢	$22.22	—	-$22.22
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 76.2¢	$115.14	$121.16	+$6.01	46% 39884-47739 (87623)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.2¢	$92.27	$121.16	+$28.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$22.87	—	-$22.87
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 49.4¢	$77.8	$112.22	+$34.42	52% 21018-19142 (40160)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 79.2¢	$90.88	$81.53	-$9.35	57% 9830-7328 (17158)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 60.8¢	$65.59	$105	+$39.41	56% 60290-46856 (107146)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 69.6¢	$70.61	$56.17	-$14.43	49% 80639-84050 (164689)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 60¢	$30.01	$50.01	+$20	55% 51515-41898 (93413)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 74.2¢	$49.62	$62.09	+$12.47	66% 130268-67287 (197555)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 56¢	$35.84	$51.79	+$15.95	63% 42233-24897 (67130)

THG.

Down

Invested

$1,603.31

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$16.2

Record

56%

30306-23637 (53943)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$613.88

Value

$617.17

PnL

+$3.29

Record

51%

11778-11240 (23018)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$545.37

Value

$557.34

PnL

+$11.97

Record

54%

16469-13864 (30333)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$561.09

Value

$552.86

PnL

-$8.23

Record

66%

100884-52834 (153718)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$487.08

Value

$503.33

PnL

+$16.25

Record

59%

11119-7628 (18747)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$486.77

Value

$487.39

PnL

+$0.62

Record

67%

102181-50515 (152696)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$402.07

Value

$388.77

PnL

-$13.31

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$270.67

Value

$293.14

PnL

+$22.47

Record

63%

60645-35108 (95753)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$340.56

Value

$287.01

PnL

-$53.55

Record

48%

6262-6858 (13120)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$349.02

Value

—

PnL

-$349.02

Record

55%

14811-12344 (27155)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$233.38

Value

$249.99

PnL

+$16.61

Record

54%

13525-11628 (25153)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$227.86

Value

$230

PnL

+$2.14

Record

89%

28835-3545 (32380)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$225.43

Value

$207.29

PnL

-$18.15

Record

55%

9721-8062 (17783)

Both legs:

Down$122.9859.3¢+$84.31

Up$102.4648.8¢-$102.46

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$250.7

Value

$163.65

PnL

-$87.05

Record

52%

10443-9803 (20246)

Both legs:

Down$95.0158.1¢+$68.65

Up$155.6955.8¢-$155.69

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$197.69

Value

$225.9

PnL

+$28.21

Record

56%

8539-6661 (15200)

Both legs:

Down$125.4755.5¢+$100.43

Up$72.2253.2¢-$72.22

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$223.32

Value

$190

PnL

-$33.32

Record

65%

129830-69807 (199637)

PapeasyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$82.1

Value

$94.86

PnL

+$12.76

Record

49%

4070-4188 (8258)

Both legs:

Down$59.8863.1¢+$34.98

Up$22.2224.8¢-$22.22

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$115.14

Value

$121.16

PnL

+$6.01

Record

46%

39884-47739 (87623)

Both legs:

Down$92.2776.2¢+$28.89

Up$22.8737.3¢-$22.87

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$77.8

Value

$112.22

PnL

+$34.42

Record

52%

21018-19142 (40160)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$90.88

Value

$81.53

PnL

-$9.35

Record

57%

9830-7328 (17158)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$65.59

Value

$105

PnL

+$39.41

Record

56%

60290-46856 (107146)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$70.61

Value

$56.17

PnL

-$14.43

Record

49%

80639-84050 (164689)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$30.01

Value

$50.01

PnL

+$20

Record

55%

51515-41898 (93413)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$49.62

Value

$62.09

PnL

+$12.47

Record

66%

130268-67287 (197555)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$35.84

Value

$51.79

PnL

+$15.95

Record

63%

42233-24897 (67130)

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 33 top traders (82%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x346d03d8...8c3e66

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793952300

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $1.6K

+$16.2

blue.birds

Down — $617.17

+$3.29

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $557.34

+$11.97

Bonereaper

Down — $552.86

-$8.23

1000monkeys

Down — $503.33

+$16.25

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $487.39

+$0.62

ply-pm0

Down — $388.77

-$13.31

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $293.14

+$22.47

asdcaxz

Down — $287.01

GoodFallen

Up — $0