Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 81%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$541.2

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 34 top traders (76%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares10,106

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,314

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99.1¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$31.91	56% 30306-23637 (53943)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 68¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$199.8	56% 15814-12443 (28257)
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99¢	$990	$1.0K	+$10	48% 10435-11100 (21535)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 48.4¢	$894.89	$971.64	+$76.75	66% 100884-52834 (153718)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.4¢	$470.3	$971.64	+$501.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.1¢	$424.59	—	-$424.59
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 42.3¢	$729.75	$917.06	+$187.31	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 41.8¢	$751.28	—	-$751.28	54% 16469-13864 (30333)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$717.56	$660.69	-$56.87	67% 102181-50515 (152696)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$398.44	$660.69	+$262.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.7¢	$319.12	—	-$319.12
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 58.3¢	$585.13	$587.87	+$2.74	59% 11119-7628 (18747)
BO bosona	Downavg 78.4¢	$391.42	$361.6	-$29.82	55% 51515-41898 (93413)
MO mo-money	Downavg 54¢	$318.22	$321.27	+$3.05	55% 52196-42630 (94826)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 46.2¢	$216.22	$319.94	+$103.72	63% 60645-35108 (95753)
AL almach	Downavg 78¢	$309.75	$294.95	-$14.8	55% 49971-41532 (91503)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 80.8¢	$269.1	$268.16	-$0.93	51% 11778-11240 (23018)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 42.4¢	$366.12	—	-$366.12	55% 14811-12344 (27155)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 52.9¢	$159.33	$225.11	+$65.78	56% 77137-59456 (136593)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 63.6¢	$230.53	$251.97	+$21.44	48% 6262-6858 (13120)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 39¢	$240.05	—	-$240.05	55% 9721-8062 (17783)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 38.4¢	$107.09	$188.92	+$81.83	53% 10341-9342 (19683)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 53.8¢	$167.46	$159.2	+$150.94	54% 13525-11628 (25153)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$147.03	$155	+$7.97	52% 21018-19142 (40160)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.2¢	$102.56	$155	+$52.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.7¢	$44.47	—	-$44.47
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 46.5¢	$95.82	$168.79	+$72.97	57% 9830-7328 (17158)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.5¢	$78.42	$168.79	+$90.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.2¢	$17.4	—	-$17.4
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 21.4¢	$113.58	$41.2	-$72.38	52% 10443-9803 (20246)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.8¢	$29.59	$41.2	+$11.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.4¢	$84	—	-$84
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 75.7¢	$79.4	$72.81	-$6.59	66% 130268-67287 (197555)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 35.5¢	$51.57	$99.67	+$48.1	58% 63002-46252 (109254)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.5¢	$35.39	$99.67	+$64.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 36¢	$16.18	—	-$16.18
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 38.3¢	$23.87	$58.56	+$34.69	49% 80639-84050 (164689)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,397.09

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$31.91

Record

56%

30306-23637 (53943)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,556.82

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$199.8

Record

56%

15814-12443 (28257)

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$990

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

48%

10435-11100 (21535)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$894.89

Value

$971.64

PnL

+$76.75

Record

66%

100884-52834 (153718)

Both legs:

Down$470.348.4¢+$501.34

Up$424.5941.1¢-$424.59

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$729.75

Value

$917.06

PnL

+$187.31

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$751.28

Value

—

PnL

-$751.28

Record

54%

16469-13864 (30333)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$717.56

Value

$660.69

PnL

-$56.87

Record

67%

102181-50515 (152696)

Both legs:

Down$398.4460.3¢+$262.25

Up$319.1254.7¢-$319.12

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$585.13

Value

$587.87

PnL

+$2.74

Record

59%

11119-7628 (18747)

bosona

Down

Invested

$391.42

Value

$361.6

PnL

-$29.82

Record

55%

51515-41898 (93413)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$318.22

Value

$321.27

PnL

+$3.05

Record

55%

52196-42630 (94826)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$216.22

Value

$319.94

PnL

+$103.72

Record

63%

60645-35108 (95753)

almach

Down

Invested

$309.75

Value

$294.95

PnL

-$14.8

Record

55%

49971-41532 (91503)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$269.1

Value

$268.16

PnL

-$0.93

Record

51%

11778-11240 (23018)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$366.12

Value

—

PnL

-$366.12

Record

55%

14811-12344 (27155)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$159.33

Value

$225.11

PnL

+$65.78

Record

56%

77137-59456 (136593)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$230.53

Value

$251.97

PnL

+$21.44

Record

48%

6262-6858 (13120)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$240.05

Value

—

PnL

-$240.05

Record

55%

9721-8062 (17783)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$107.09

Value

$188.92

PnL

+$81.83

Record

53%

10341-9342 (19683)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$167.46

Value

$159.2

PnL

+$150.94

Record

54%

13525-11628 (25153)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$147.03

Value

$155

PnL

+$7.97

Record

52%

21018-19142 (40160)

Both legs:

Down$102.5666.2¢+$52.44

Up$44.4739.7¢-$44.47

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$95.82

Value

$168.79

PnL

+$72.97

Record

57%

9830-7328 (17158)

Both legs:

Down$78.4246.5¢+$90.37

Up$17.428.2¢-$17.4

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$113.58

Value

$41.2

PnL

-$72.38

Record

52%

10443-9803 (20246)

Both legs:

Down$29.5971.8¢+$11.61

Up$8421.4¢-$84

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$79.4

Value

$72.81

PnL

-$6.59

Record

66%

130268-67287 (197555)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$51.57

Value

$99.67

PnL

+$48.1

Record

58%

63002-46252 (109254)

Both legs:

Down$35.3935.5¢+$64.28

Up$16.1836¢-$16.18

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$23.87

Value

$58.56

PnL

+$34.69

Record

49%

80639-84050 (164689)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 34 top traders (76%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x937f0054...4ee608

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793951100

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.4K

+$31.91

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.4K

-$199.8

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $1.0K

+$10

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$76.75

ply-pm0

Down — $917.06

+$187.31

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Up — $0

-$751.28

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$56.87

1000monkeys

Down — $587.87

+$2.74

bosona

Down — $361.6

-$29.82

mo-money

Down — $321.27

+$3.05

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