Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

-$348.84

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 38 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares12,735

Combined PnL+$618.57

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,773

Combined PnL-$967.41

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.4	56% 30259-23636 (53895)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 54.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$84.67	54% 16425-13809 (30234)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 67¢	$791.04	$805.3	+$14.26	56% 15731-12383 (28114)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 54.3¢	$658.14	$798.56	+$140.42	66% 100821-52760 (153581)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 66.7¢	$781.96	$876.71	+$94.75	52% 20969-19062 (40031)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 56.8¢	$685.85	$650.83	-$35.03	54% 14709-12317 (27026)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 70¢	$587.85	$616.82	+$28.97	51% 11558-11054 (22612)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 68.2¢	$541.74	$611.3	+$69.57	48% 6060-6618 (12678)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 72.8¢	$452.53	$439.15	-$13.38	59% 11006-7559 (18565)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 63.1¢	$425.58	$439.07	+$13.49	54% 13435-11593 (25028)
MO mo-money	Downavg 51.5¢	$401.2	$407.63	+$6.44	55% 52057-42518 (94575)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99.1¢	$386.37	$390	+$3.63	89% 28459-3534 (31993)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 41.5¢	$423.58	—	-$423.58	50% 6219-6198 (12417)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 66.1¢	$230.25	$279.33	+$49.08	57% 9749-7272 (17021)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 44.7¢	$187.44	$172.67	-$14.77	51% 17560-16955 (34515)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.7¢	$134.15	—	-$134.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.9¢	$53.3	$172.67	+$119.38
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 75¢	$255.59	$252.01	-$3.57	55% 51441-41799 (93240)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75¢	$188.92	$252.01	+$63.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 34¢	$66.67	—	-$66.67
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 66.2¢	$162.62	$210.07	+$47.44	56% 60116-46677 (106793)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 54.1¢	$204.05	$197.2	-$6.85	65% 114237-61186 (175423)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR	Upavg 36.1¢	$143.71	—	-$143.71	52% 10380-9732 (20112)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 83.6¢	$233.27	$209.72	-$23.56	53% 10282-9273 (19555)
AL almach	Downavg 85.5¢	$226.98	$181.61	-$45.37	55% 49968-41527 (91495)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 70.4¢	$141.12	$180.33	+$39.21	61% 45676-28767 (74443)
ohioism	Downavg 72¢	$161.07	$173.29	+$12.22	63% 42087-24722 (66809)
AS asidjasiodja	Downavg 97¢	$164.91	$147	-$6.11	61% 98390-62338 (160728)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 78.7¢	$118.69	$143.68	+$28.08	65% 129569-69572 (199141)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,009.28

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.4

Record

56%

30259-23636 (53895)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,330.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$84.67

Record

54%

16425-13809 (30234)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$791.04

Value

$805.3

PnL

+$14.26

Record

56%

15731-12383 (28114)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$658.14

Value

$798.56

PnL

+$140.42

Record

66%

100821-52760 (153581)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$781.96

Value

$876.71

PnL

+$94.75

Record

52%

20969-19062 (40031)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$685.85

Value

$650.83

PnL

-$35.03

Record

54%

14709-12317 (27026)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$587.85

Value

$616.82

PnL

+$28.97

Record

51%

11558-11054 (22612)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$541.74

Value

$611.3

PnL

+$69.57

Record

48%

6060-6618 (12678)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$452.53

Value

$439.15

PnL

-$13.38

Record

59%

11006-7559 (18565)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$425.58

Value

$439.07

PnL

+$13.49

Record

54%

13435-11593 (25028)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$401.2

Value

$407.63

PnL

+$6.44

Record

55%

52057-42518 (94575)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$386.37

Value

$390

PnL

+$3.63

Record

89%

28459-3534 (31993)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$423.58

Value

—

PnL

-$423.58

Record

50%

6219-6198 (12417)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$230.25

Value

$279.33

PnL

+$49.08

Record

57%

9749-7272 (17021)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$187.44

Value

$172.67

PnL

-$14.77

Record

51%

17560-16955 (34515)

Both legs:

Up$134.1544.7¢-$134.15

Down$53.330.9¢+$119.38

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$255.59

Value

$252.01

PnL

-$3.57

Record

55%

51441-41799 (93240)

Both legs:

Down$188.9275¢+$63.09

Up$66.6734¢-$66.67

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$162.62

Value

$210.07

PnL

+$47.44

Record

56%

60116-46677 (106793)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$204.05

Value

$197.2

PnL

-$6.85

Record

65%

114237-61186 (175423)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR

Invested

$143.71

Value

—

PnL

-$143.71

Record

52%

10380-9732 (20112)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$233.27

Value

$209.72

PnL

-$23.56

Record

53%

10282-9273 (19555)

almach

Down

Invested

$226.98

Value

$181.61

PnL

-$45.37

Record

55%

49968-41527 (91495)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$141.12

Value

$180.33

PnL

+$39.21

Record

61%

45676-28767 (74443)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$161.07

Value

$173.29

PnL

+$12.22

Record

63%

42087-24722 (66809)

asidjasiodja

Down

Invested

$164.91

Value

$147

PnL

-$6.11

Record

61%

98390-62338 (160728)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$118.69

Value

$143.68

PnL

+$28.08

Record

65%

129569-69572 (199141)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 38 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9eff9c0a...7795e6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793910300

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.0K

+$30.4

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.4K

+$84.67

CrouchPredictions

Down — $805.3

+$14.26

Bonereaper

Down — $798.56

+$140.42

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down — $876.71

+$94.75

GoodFallen

Down — $650.83

-$35.03

blue.birds

Down — $616.82

+$28.97

asdcaxz

Down — $611.3

+$69.57

1000monkeys

Down — $439.15

-$13.38

FairValueMachine

Down — $439.07

+$13.49

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