Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 85%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 33 top traders (82%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down27 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares7,090

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares706

Combined PnL-$537.88

Down — 82%Up — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 50.9¢	$938.3	$1.8K	+$875.77	58% 39529-28562 (68091)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 90.2¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$22.44	66% 100522-52543 (153065)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$911.79	$921	+$9.21	91% 26816-2525 (29341)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 49.3¢	$303.09	$614.47	+$311.38	58% 51767-37809 (89576)
PB PBot-5	Downavg 55.9¢	$288.18	$515.4	+$227.22	52% 11825-10844 (22669)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 37.1¢	$305.74	—	-$305.74	63% 60080-34581 (94661)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 56¢	$253.44	$311.91	+$58.46	59% 10726-7392 (18118)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 69.2¢	$188.17	$231.36	+$43.18	50% 6051-6038 (12089)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 55.1¢	$111.71	$176.98	+$65.27	67% 101418-49729 (151147)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 51.3¢	$219.04	—	-$219.04	56% 7951-6187 (14138)
machinelearned	Downavg 58.3¢	$116.87	$154.2	+$37.33	55% 9429-7805 (17234)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 96.3¢	$147.3	$153	+$5.7	49% 79837-83308 (163145)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 50.2¢	$114.44	$124.49	+$10.05	53% 10110-9120 (19230)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 51¢	$68.64	$100	+$31.36	51% 9351-8826 (18177)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 93.7¢	$68.21	$67	-$1.21	55% 50671-42100 (92771)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$41.13	$60	+$18.87	65% 128786-69038 (197824)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 71.3¢	$44.75	$46.96	+$2.22	57% 12354-9341 (21695)
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$22.98	$40	+$17.02	54% 10238-8616 (18854)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$26.4	$31.26	+$4.87	66% 129314-66696 (196010)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 79.7¢	$35.94	$26.8	+$2.22	61% 97791-61885 (159676)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$12.86	$21	+$8.14	58% 62307-45673 (107980)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$5.12	$9.61	+$4.49	65% 113917-60802 (174719)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 38.8¢	$9.52	—	-$9.52	52% 93101-87521 (180622)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 67¢	$5.13	$5	-$0.13	56% 59702-46302 (106004)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$2.39	$5.01	+$2.62	63% 41713-24342 (66055)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$938.3

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$875.77

Record

58%

39529-28562 (68091)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,638.29

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$22.44

Record

66%

100522-52543 (153065)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$911.79

Value

$921

PnL

+$9.21

Record

91%

26816-2525 (29341)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$303.09

Value

$614.47

PnL

+$311.38

Record

58%

51767-37809 (89576)

PBot-5

Down

Invested

$288.18

Value

$515.4

PnL

+$227.22

Record

52%

11825-10844 (22669)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$305.74

Value

—

PnL

-$305.74

Record

63%

60080-34581 (94661)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$253.44

Value

$311.91

PnL

+$58.46

Record

59%

10726-7392 (18118)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$188.17

Value

$231.36

PnL

+$43.18

Record

50%

6051-6038 (12089)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$111.71

Value

$176.98

PnL

+$65.27

Record

67%

101418-49729 (151147)

13897651CTR

Invested

$219.04

Value

—

PnL

-$219.04

Record

56%

7951-6187 (14138)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$116.87

Value

$154.2

PnL

+$37.33

Record

55%

9429-7805 (17234)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$147.3

Value

$153

PnL

+$5.7

Record

49%

79837-83308 (163145)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$114.44

Value

$124.49

PnL

+$10.05

Record

53%

10110-9120 (19230)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$68.64

Value

$100

PnL

+$31.36

Record

51%

9351-8826 (18177)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$68.21

Value

$67

PnL

-$1.21

Record

55%

50671-42100 (92771)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$41.13

Value

$60

PnL

+$18.87

Record

65%

128786-69038 (197824)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$44.75

Value

$46.96

PnL

+$2.22

Record

57%

12354-9341 (21695)

OhioAI<$100

Down

Invested

$22.98

Value

$40

PnL

+$17.02

Record

54%

10238-8616 (18854)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$26.4

Value

$31.26

PnL

+$4.87

Record

66%

129314-66696 (196010)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$35.94

Value

$26.8

PnL

+$2.22

Record

61%

97791-61885 (159676)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$12.86

Value

$21

PnL

+$8.14

Record

58%

62307-45673 (107980)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$5.12

Value

$9.61

PnL

+$4.49

Record

65%

113917-60802 (174719)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$9.52

Value

—

PnL

-$9.52

Record

52%

93101-87521 (180622)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$5.13

Value

PnL

-$0.13

Record

56%

59702-46302 (106004)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$2.39

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$2.62

Record

63%

41713-24342 (66055)

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 33 top traders (82%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x3cd61281...c30b2d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793811300

Traders in this Market

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.8K

+$875.77

Bonereaper

Down — $1.7K

+$22.44

hoodquant

Down — $921

+$9.21

PBot-6

Down — $614.47

+$311.38

PBot-5

Down — $515.4

+$227.22

Polkadot-Frog

CTR

Up — $0

-$305.74

1000monkeys

Down — $311.91

+$58.46

ply-pm0

Down — $231.36

+$43.18

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $176.98

13897651

Up — $0