Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$140.15

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 19 top traders (84%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,683

Combined PnL+$273.63

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares522

Combined PnL-$133.48

Down — 84%Up — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 96.1¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$49.24	66% 100409-52447 (152856)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 85.9¢	$52.69	$60	+$7.31	65% 128380-68714 (197094)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 71.9¢	$240.78	$247.24	+$6.47	54% 16193-13578 (29771)
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.9¢	$62.89	—	-$62.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.9¢	$177.88	$247.24	+$69.36
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 98¢	$218.03	$178.6	-$39.43	46% 39306-46719 (86025)
└ Up leg	Upavg 12¢	$43.01	—	-$43.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 98¢	$175.03	$178.6	+$3.57
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 76.1¢	$265.99	$242.25	-$23.74	59% 10582-7311 (17893)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.3¢	$81.74	—	-$81.74
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.1¢	$184.25	$242.25	+$57.99
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 21.1¢	$86.68	—	-$86.68	49% 79620-83009 (162629)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.5¢	$391.65	$397.5	+$5.85	91% 26459-2499 (28958)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 81.4¢	$194.17	$207.1	+$12.92	52% 20732-18832 (39564)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.4¢	$168.52	$207.1	+$38.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.7¢	$25.65	—	-$25.65
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 46.8¢	$85.06	$172.58	+$87.51	53% 10025-9051 (19076)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.8¢	$80.84	$172.58	+$91.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 5¢	$4.23	—	-$4.23
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 49.8¢	$121.28	$208.68	+$87.4	56% 8857-6932 (15789)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$100.58	$125	+$24.42	55% 14420-11800 (26220)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.4¢	$86.69	$125	+$38.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.2¢	$13.89	—	-$13.89
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Upavg 19.6¢	$52.57	$42	-$10.57	29% 11356-27563 (38919)
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.6¢	$26.67	—	-$26.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.7¢	$25.91	$42	+$16.09
13 13897651	Downavg 50.3¢	$84.49	$152.67	+$68.18	56% 7744-6020 (13764)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 85¢	$92.94	$103.03	+$10.09	55% 9344-7725 (17069)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85¢	$87.58	$103.03	+$15.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.6¢	$5.36	—	-$5.36
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99.8¢	$126.18	$126.43	+$0.25	48% 9678-10594 (20272)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 67.6¢	$66.75	$98.77	+$32.02	55% 13131-10707 (23838)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$36	—	-$36	49% 3621-3749 (7370)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 86.1¢	$43.33	$50.34	+$7.02	66% 128940-66460 (195400)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$36.17	$50	+$13.83	63% 41533-24143 (65676)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 16.9¢	$10.8	—	-$10.8	57% 12267-9270 (21537)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 98¢	$36.26	$37	+$0.74	55% 50401-41873 (92274)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 92.9¢	$23.33	$25.12	+$1.79	61% 97473-61636 (159109)
CR CrouchPredictions<$100	Downavg 93.7¢	—	—	+$0	56% 15412-12098 (27510)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 80¢	—	—	+$0	51% 10864-10368 (21232)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 95.5¢	—	—	+$0	48% 5363-5764 (11127)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$3,427.67

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$49.24

Record

66%

100409-52447 (152856)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$52.69

Value

$60

PnL

+$7.31

Record

65%

128380-68714 (197094)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$240.78

Value

$247.24

PnL

+$6.47

Record

54%

16193-13578 (29771)

Both legs:

Up$62.8920.9¢-$62.89

Down$177.8871.9¢+$69.36

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$218.03

Value

$178.6

PnL

-$39.43

Record

46%

39306-46719 (86025)

Both legs:

Invested

$265.99

Value

$242.25

PnL

-$23.74

Record

59%

10582-7311 (17893)

Both legs:

Up$81.7431.3¢-$81.74

Down$184.2576.1¢+$57.99

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$86.68

Value

—

PnL

-$86.68

Record

49%

79620-83009 (162629)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$391.65

Value

$397.5

PnL

+$5.85

Record

91%

26459-2499 (28958)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$194.17

Value

$207.1

PnL

+$12.92

Record

52%

20732-18832 (39564)

Both legs:

Down$168.5281.4¢+$38.58

Up$25.6514.7¢-$25.65

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$85.06

Value

$172.58

PnL

+$87.51

Record

53%

10025-9051 (19076)

Both legs:

Down$80.8446.8¢+$91.74

Up$4.235¢-$4.23

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$121.28

Value

$208.68

PnL

+$87.4

Record

56%

8857-6932 (15789)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$100.58

Value

$125

PnL

+$24.42

Record

55%

14420-11800 (26220)

Both legs:

Down$86.6969.4¢+$38.31

Up$13.8923.2¢-$13.89

HcrystallashARB<$100

Invested

$52.57

Value

$42

PnL

-$10.57

Record

29%

11356-27563 (38919)

Both legs:

Up$26.6719.6¢-$26.67

Down$25.9161.7¢+$16.09

13897651

Down

Invested

$84.49

Value

$152.67

PnL

+$68.18

Record

56%

7744-6020 (13764)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$92.94

Value

$103.03

PnL

+$10.09

Record

55%

9344-7725 (17069)

Both legs:

Invested

$126.18

Value

$126.43

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

9678-10594 (20272)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$66.75

Value

$98.77

PnL

+$32.02

Record

55%

13131-10707 (23838)

PapeasyCTR<$100

Invested

$36

Value

—

PnL

-$36

Record

49%

3621-3749 (7370)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$43.33

Value

$50.34

PnL

+$7.02

Record

66%

128940-66460 (195400)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$36.17

Value

$50

PnL

+$13.83

Record

63%

41533-24143 (65676)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$10.8

Value

—

PnL

-$10.8

Record

57%

12267-9270 (21537)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$36.26

Value

$37

PnL

+$0.74

Record

55%

50401-41873 (92274)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$23.33

Value

$25.12

PnL

+$1.79

Record

61%

97473-61636 (159109)

CrouchPredictions<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

15412-12098 (27510)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

10864-10368 (21232)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

5363-5764 (11127)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 19 top traders (84%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcf772750...591eae

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793750100

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Down — $3.5K

+$49.24

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $60

+$7.31

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

pspspsps5

Arbitrage — excluded

1000monkeys

Arbitrage — excluded

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $397.5

+$5.85

x-MoneyForWhiskas

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$12.92

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$87.51

wzbbb

Down — $208.68

+$87.4

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