Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 61%

20 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$236.59

Smart Money Signal

17 of 30 top traders (57%)20 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares1,957

Combined PnL+$470.77

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,933

Combined PnL-$707.36

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 44.2¢	$396.34	$490	+$93.66	55% 9089-7506 (16595)
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.8¢	$179.64	—	-$179.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.2¢	$216.7	$490	+$273.3
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 61¢	$445.71	$449.34	+$3.63	55% 8743-7266 (16009)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.8¢	$171.48	—	-$171.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$274.23	$449.34	+$175.11
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$407.46	$487.36	+$79.9	60% 7791-5089 (12880)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.1¢	$268.45	$487.36	+$218.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.1¢	$139.02	—	-$139.02
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 56.8¢	$398.57	$371.12	-$27.45	54% 8432-7132 (15564)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.5¢	$187.74	—	-$187.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.8¢	$210.83	$371.12	+$160.29
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 57.9¢	$330.17	$342.04	+$11.87	67% 53294-26704 (79998)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.8¢	$132.16	—	-$132.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.9¢	$198.01	$342.04	+$144.03
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 80¢	$432.05	$540	+$107.95	57% 72468-55140 (127608)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 27.7¢	$142.49	—	-$142.49	58% 38758-27803 (66561)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 67.4¢	$269.32	$355.26	+$85.94	55% 15897-13236 (29133)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.4¢	$239.59	$355.26	+$115.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.5¢	$29.73	—	-$29.73
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100	Upavg 59.6¢	$239.08	$210.11	-$28.97	52% 7522-7026 (14548)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.5¢	$113.96	—	-$113.96
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.6¢	$125.12	$210.11	+$84.99
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 63.9¢	$188.85	$252.12	+$63.27	62% 29077-18156 (47233)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 82¢	$363.12	$442.72	+$79.6	56% 15057-11806 (26863)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR	Downavg 33.4¢	$136.14	—	-$136.14	55% 18869-15457 (34326)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 58¢	$143.73	$199.96	+$56.24	51% 10110-9708 (19818)
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.9¢	$27.75	—	-$27.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 58¢	$115.98	$199.96	+$83.98
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 71¢	$207.7	$235.84	+$28.14	56% 14136-11237 (25373)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71¢	$167.5	$235.84	+$68.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.5¢	$40.2	—	-$40.2
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$178.97	$176	-$2.97	60% 12700-8455 (21155)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.5¢	$97.68	$176	+$78.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.2¢	$81.29	—	-$81.29
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Upavg 66.1¢	$209.38	$274.73	+$65.34	52% 13078-11897 (24975)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.1¢	$181.52	$274.73	+$93.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 38¢	$27.87	—	-$27.87
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 29.5¢	$135.61	$85.86	-$49.75	50% 5708-5750 (11458)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.5¢	$71.35	—	-$71.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.8¢	$64.26	$85.86	+$21.6
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100	Downavg 18.9¢	$52.52	—	-$52.52	52% 7481-6918 (14399)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 48.8¢	$103.05	$166.07	+$63.03	65% 15101-8123 (23224)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$81	$166.07	+$85.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.7¢	$22.05	—	-$22.05
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 69¢	$153	$180	+$27	53% 17504-15764 (33268)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69¢	$124.2	$180	+$55.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 32¢	$28.8	—	-$28.8
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Downavg 56¢	$119.28	$72	-$47.28	35% 19274-36326 (55600)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$84	—	-$84
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$35.28	$72	+$36.72
SP spartacray	Upavg 67.5¢	$101.57	$110.4	+$8.83	53% 27682-24520 (52202)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 81.5¢	$121.26	$129.99	+$8.73	56% 12845-9893 (22738)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.5¢	$106	$129.99	+$24
└ Down leg	Downavg 24¢	$15.26	—	-$15.26
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Downavg 54.3¢	$93	—	-$93	57% 10500-7875 (18375)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 58.4¢	$96.53	$101.75	+$5.22	55% 7914-6467 (14381)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.4¢	$59.39	$101.75	+$42.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.8¢	$37.14	—	-$37.14

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$396.34

Value

$490

PnL

+$93.66

Record

55%

9089-7506 (16595)

Both legs:

Down$179.6421.8¢-$179.64

Up$216.744.2¢+$273.3

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$445.71

Value

$449.34

PnL

+$3.63

Record

55%

8743-7266 (16009)

Both legs:

Down$171.4835.8¢-$171.48

Up$274.2361¢+$175.11

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$407.46

Value

$487.36

PnL

+$79.9

Record

60%

7791-5089 (12880)

Both legs:

Up$268.4555.1¢+$218.92

Down$139.0235.1¢-$139.02

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$398.57

Value

$371.12

PnL

-$27.45

Record

54%

8432-7132 (15564)

Both legs:

Down$187.7439.5¢-$187.74

Up$210.8356.8¢+$160.29

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$330.17

Value

$342.04

PnL

+$11.87

Record

67%

53294-26704 (79998)

Both legs:

Down$132.1636.8¢-$132.16

Up$198.0157.9¢+$144.03

uninformedfloww

Invested

$432.05

Value

$540

PnL

+$107.95

Record

57%

72468-55140 (127608)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$142.49

Value

—

PnL

-$142.49

Record

58%

38758-27803 (66561)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$269.32

Value

$355.26

PnL

+$85.94

Record

55%

15897-13236 (29133)

Both legs:

Up$239.5967.4¢+$115.67

Down$29.7320.5¢-$29.73

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100

Invested

$239.08

Value

$210.11

PnL

-$28.97

Record

52%

7522-7026 (14548)

Both legs:

Down$113.9648.5¢-$113.96

Up$125.1259.6¢+$84.99

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$188.85

Value

$252.12

PnL

+$63.27

Record

62%

29077-18156 (47233)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$363.12

Value

$442.72

PnL

+$79.6

Record

56%

15057-11806 (26863)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR

Down

Invested

$136.14

Value

—

PnL

-$136.14

Record

55%

18869-15457 (34326)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$143.73

Value

$199.96

PnL

+$56.24

Record

51%

10110-9708 (19818)

Both legs:

Down$27.7513.9¢-$27.75

Up$115.9858¢+$83.98

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$207.7

Value

$235.84

PnL

+$28.14

Record

56%

14136-11237 (25373)

Both legs:

Up$167.571¢+$68.34

Down$40.233.5¢-$40.2

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$178.97

Value

$176

PnL

-$2.97

Record

60%

12700-8455 (21155)

Both legs:

Up$97.6855.5¢+$78.32

Down$81.2948.2¢-$81.29

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Invested

$209.38

Value

$274.73

PnL

+$65.34

Record

52%

13078-11897 (24975)

Both legs:

Up$181.5266.1¢+$93.21

Down$27.8738¢-$27.87

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$135.61

Value

$85.86

PnL

-$49.75

Record

50%

5708-5750 (11458)

Both legs:

Down$71.3529.5¢-$71.35

Up$64.2674.8¢+$21.6

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$52.52

Value

—

PnL

-$52.52

Record

52%

7481-6918 (14399)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$103.05

Value

$166.07

PnL

+$63.03

Record

65%

15101-8123 (23224)

Both legs:

Up$8148.8¢+$85.07

Down$22.0520.7¢-$22.05

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$153

Value

$180

PnL

+$27

Record

53%

17504-15764 (33268)

Both legs:

Invested

$119.28

Value

$72

PnL

-$47.28

Record

35%

19274-36326 (55600)

Both legs:

Down$8456¢-$84

Up$35.2849¢+$36.72

spartacray

Invested

$101.57

Value

$110.4

PnL

+$8.83

Record

53%

27682-24520 (52202)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$121.26

Value

$129.99

PnL

+$8.73

Record

56%

12845-9893 (22738)

Both legs:

Invested

$93

Value

—

PnL

-$93

Record

57%

10500-7875 (18375)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$96.53

Value

$101.75

PnL

+$5.22

Record

55%

7914-6467 (14381)

Both legs:

Up$59.3958.4¢+$42.36

Down$37.1456.8¢-$37.14

Smart Money Signal

17 of 30 top traders (57%)20 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x40597bc6...ff91f6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793621700

Traders in this Market

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

1000monkeys

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $540

+$107.95

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$142.49

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$85.94

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$28.97

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Up — $252.12

+$63.27

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