Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 92% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 91%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$565.65

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 24 top traders (92%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,210

Combined PnL+$616.5

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares204

Combined PnL-$50.85

Down — 92%Up — 8%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 72¢	$561.62	$705.61	+$143.99	50% 5488-5538 (11026)
pspspsps5	Downavg 74.3¢	$316.14	$425.24	+$109.1	46% 38481-45439 (83920)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 73.1¢	$282.01	$385.64	+$103.63	49% 78322-81818 (160140)
machinelearned	Downavg 80.1¢	$320.78	$350	+$29.22	55% 8849-7304 (16153)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 79.2¢	$265.53	$276.16	+$10.63	54% 8234-6922 (15156)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 79.3¢	$169.58	$196.73	+$27.15	55% 7679-6277 (13956)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 73.3¢	$132.04	$120	-$12.04	55% 15723-13089 (28812)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.3¢	$87.9	$120	+$32.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.2¢	$44.14	—	-$44.14
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 77.8¢	$117.59	$82.09	-$35.5	57% 12686-9747 (22433)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.8¢	$63.89	$82.09	+$18.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.2¢	$53.7	—	-$53.7
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 71¢	$82.4	$60	-$22.4	56% 13969-11089 (25058)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71¢	$42.6	$60	+$17.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.6¢	$39.8	—	-$39.8
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 83.9¢	$83.7	$80.23	-$3.47	66% 99414-51548 (150962)
LI Little-big	Downavg 64¢	$96	$150	+$54	35% 19006-36004 (55010)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 75¢	$108	$144	+$36	58% 38265-27402 (65667)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 22.7¢	$70.4	$43.97	-$26.43	60% 12463-8270 (20733)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72¢	$31.66	$43.97	+$12.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.7¢	$38.74	—	-$38.74
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 85.8¢	$58.47	$68.11	+$9.64	61% 95670-60340 (156010)
13 13897651	Downavg 66¢	$74.04	$112.13	+$38.09	59% 6971-4900 (11871)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 86.6¢	$43.64	$50.4	+$6.76	52% 90979-85505 (176484)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 74.6¢	$42.75	$44.83	+$14.4	64% 24337-13438 (37775)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 90.8¢	$37.62	$41.45	+$3.83	66% 126669-65209 (191878)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 98¢	$37.24	$38	+$0.76	93% 24070-1801 (25871)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 77¢	$31.6	$41.04	+$9.44	56% 58449-45097 (103546)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$25.17	$30	+$4.83	56% 8198-6333 (14531)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR<$100	Upavg 25.8¢	$37.05	—	-$37.05	63% 1779-1038 (2817)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 76¢	$22.04	$29	+$6.96	74% 102892-36499 (139391)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 23¢	$13.8	—	-$13.8	57% 12732-9446 (22178)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 76¢	$19.5	$25.66	+$6.16	62% 44084-27095 (71179)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$561.62

Value

$705.61

PnL

+$143.99

Record

50%

5488-5538 (11026)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$316.14

Value

$425.24

PnL

+$109.1

Record

46%

38481-45439 (83920)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$282.01

Value

$385.64

PnL

+$103.63

Record

49%

78322-81818 (160140)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$320.78

Value

$350

PnL

+$29.22

Record

55%

8849-7304 (16153)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$265.53

Value

$276.16

PnL

+$10.63

Record

54%

8234-6922 (15156)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$169.58

Value

$196.73

PnL

+$27.15

Record

55%

7679-6277 (13956)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$132.04

Value

$120

PnL

-$12.04

Record

55%

15723-13089 (28812)

Both legs:

Down$87.973.3¢+$32.1

Up$44.1423.2¢-$44.14

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$117.59

Value

$82.09

PnL

-$35.5

Record

57%

12686-9747 (22433)

Both legs:

Down$63.8977.8¢+$18.2

Up$53.719.2¢-$53.7

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$82.4

Value

$60

PnL

-$22.4

Record

56%

13969-11089 (25058)

Both legs:

Invested

$83.7

Value

$80.23

PnL

-$3.47

Record

66%

99414-51548 (150962)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$96

Value

$150

PnL

+$54

Record

35%

19006-36004 (55010)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$108

Value

$144

PnL

+$36

Record

58%

38265-27402 (65667)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$70.4

Value

$43.97

PnL

-$26.43

Record

60%

12463-8270 (20733)

Both legs:

Invested

$58.47

Value

$68.11

PnL

+$9.64

Record

61%

95670-60340 (156010)

13897651

Down

Invested

$74.04

Value

$112.13

PnL

+$38.09

Record

59%

6971-4900 (11871)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$43.64

Value

$50.4

PnL

+$6.76

Record

52%

90979-85505 (176484)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$42.75

Value

$44.83

PnL

+$14.4

Record

64%

24337-13438 (37775)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$37.62

Value

$41.45

PnL

+$3.83

Record

66%

126669-65209 (191878)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$37.24

Value

$38

PnL

+$0.76

Record

93%

24070-1801 (25871)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$31.6

Value

$41.04

PnL

+$9.44

Record

56%

58449-45097 (103546)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$25.17

Value

$30

PnL

+$4.83

Record

56%

8198-6333 (14531)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR<$100

Invested

$37.05

Value

—

PnL

-$37.05

Record

63%

1779-1038 (2817)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$22.04

Value

$29

PnL

+$6.96

Record

74%

102892-36499 (139391)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

—

PnL

-$13.8

Record

57%

12732-9446 (22178)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$19.5

Value

$25.66

PnL

+$6.16

Record

62%

44084-27095 (71179)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 24 top traders (92%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x23b0151a...7a3864

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793490000

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

Down — $705.61

+$143.99

pspspsps5

Down — $425.24

+$109.1

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $385.64

+$103.63

machinelearned

Down — $350

+$29.22

sfkjbsr457

Down — $276.16

+$10.63

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $196.73

+$27.15

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Down — $80.23

-$3.47

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