Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$206.04

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 33 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,790

Combined PnL+$826.06

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,887

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Down — 55%Up — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 61.3¢	$819.27	$1.0K	+$180.94	50% 5477-5524 (11001)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 55.8¢	$437.65	$596.01	+$158.37	55% 15710-13078 (28788)
machinelearned	Downavg 86.4¢	$519.53	$541.7	+$22.17	55% 8834-7294 (16128)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 54.5¢	$429.24	—	-$429.24	58% 38241-27378 (65619)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 84.5¢	$480.99	$569.44	+$88.45	57% 71395-54409 (125804)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 69.8¢	$332.23	$350.65	+$18.41	54% 8224-6907 (15131)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 73.2¢	$302.92	$308.13	+$5.21	55% 7664-6267 (13931)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.2¢	$225.54	$308.13	+$82.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.7¢	$77.38	—	-$77.38
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700	Downavg 44.1¢	$155.64	$349.69	+$196.45	63% 1777-1035 (2812)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 60.4¢	$192.33	$224.97	+$32.64	56% 13958-11077 (25035)
pspspsps5	Downavg 84.1¢	$220.67	$262.39	+$41.72	46% 38451-45413 (83864)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 82.5¢	$239.44	$217.42	-$22.02	60% 12450-8258 (20708)
SE seeeeeebCTR	Upavg 68¢	$160.66	—	-$160.66	52% 768-714 (1482)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$148.47	$149.97	+$1.5	74% 102879-36496 (139375)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 67.8¢	$117.19	$140.37	+$23.17	57% 12676-9740 (22416)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$91.6	—	-$91.6	66% 99403-51545 (150948)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 78.8¢	$99.79	$126.71	+$26.92	49% 78295-81799 (160094)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Upavg 73.2¢	$115.5	—	-$115.5	58% 60853-44436 (105289)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 30.7¢	$50	—	-$50	57% 12730-9443 (22173)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$58.25	—	-$58.25	55% 18138-14723 (32861)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 72.7¢	$62.8	$81.39	+$18.59	66% 126616-65192 (191808)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$41.4	—	-$41.4	65% 125977-67395 (193372)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 81.1¢	$55.81	$68.83	+$13.02	61% 95475-60241 (155716)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 71.8¢	$40.27	$56.05	+$15.78	52% 90943-85477 (176420)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 41.5¢	$16.6	—	-$16.6	55% 24070-19444 (43514)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 73¢	$19.75	—	-$19.75	62% 44057-27075 (71132)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$819.27

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$180.94

Record

50%

5477-5524 (11001)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$437.65

Value

$596.01

PnL

+$158.37

Record

55%

15710-13078 (28788)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$519.53

Value

$541.7

PnL

+$22.17

Record

55%

8834-7294 (16128)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$429.24

Value

—

PnL

-$429.24

Record

58%

38241-27378 (65619)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$480.99

Value

$569.44

PnL

+$88.45

Record

57%

71395-54409 (125804)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$332.23

Value

$350.65

PnL

+$18.41

Record

54%

8224-6907 (15131)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$302.92

Value

$308.13

PnL

+$5.21

Record

55%

7664-6267 (13931)

Both legs:

Down$225.5473.2¢+$82.59

Up$77.3825.7¢-$77.38

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Down

Invested

$155.64

Value

$349.69

PnL

+$196.45

Record

63%

1777-1035 (2812)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$192.33

Value

$224.97

PnL

+$32.64

Record

56%

13958-11077 (25035)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$220.67

Value

$262.39

PnL

+$41.72

Record

46%

38451-45413 (83864)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$239.44

Value

$217.42

PnL

-$22.02

Record

60%

12450-8258 (20708)

seeeeeebCTR

Invested

$160.66

Value

—

PnL

-$160.66

Record

52%

768-714 (1482)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$148.47

Value

$149.97

PnL

+$1.5

Record

74%

102879-36496 (139375)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$117.19

Value

$140.37

PnL

+$23.17

Record

57%

12676-9740 (22416)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$91.6

Value

—

PnL

-$91.6

Record

66%

99403-51545 (150948)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$99.79

Value

$126.71

PnL

+$26.92

Record

49%

78295-81799 (160094)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Invested

$115.5

Value

—

PnL

-$115.5

Record

58%

60853-44436 (105289)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$50

Value

—

PnL

-$50

Record

57%

12730-9443 (22173)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$58.25

Value

—

PnL

-$58.25

Record

55%

18138-14723 (32861)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$62.8

Value

$81.39

PnL

+$18.59

Record

66%

126616-65192 (191808)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$41.4

Value

—

PnL

-$41.4

Record

65%

125977-67395 (193372)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$55.81

Value

$68.83

PnL

+$13.02

Record

61%

95475-60241 (155716)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$40.27

Value

$56.05

PnL

+$15.78

Record

52%

90943-85477 (176420)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$16.6

Value

—

PnL

-$16.6

Record

55%

24070-19444 (43514)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$19.75

Value

—

PnL

-$19.75

Record

62%

44057-27075 (71132)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 33 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xba317bee...b7aced

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793489100

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

Down — $1.0K

+$180.94

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $596.01

+$158.37

machinelearned

Down — $541.7

+$22.17

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$429.24

uninformedfloww

Down — $569.44

+$88.45

sfkjbsr457

Down — $350.65

+$18.41

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$5.21

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Down — $349.69

+$196.45

GoodFallen

Down — $224.97

+$32.64

pspspsps5

Down — $262.39

+$41.72

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