Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 83%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$103.74

Smart Money Signal

19 of 24 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,387

Combined PnL+$121.12

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares160

Combined PnL-$17.38

Up — 79%Down — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
machinelearned	Upavg 85.6¢	$525.25	$613.42	+$88.17	55% 8834-7294 (16128)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 53.5¢	$281.95	$399.98	+$118.03	55% 15710-13078 (28788)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 78.9¢	$326.23	$261.14	-$65.09	50% 5477-5524 (11001)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 59¢	$205.65	$231.14	+$29.13	55% 7664-6267 (13931)
pspspsps5	Upavg 91.7¢	$210.04	$190.93	-$19.1	46% 38451-45413 (83864)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 66.3¢	$165.94	$163.8	-$2.15	54% 8224-6907 (15131)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 89¢	$109.5	$101.12	-$8.38	62% 44057-27075 (71132)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 38.3¢	$97.37	$145.04	+$47.67	66% 99403-51545 (150948)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73¢	$41.86	—	-$41.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.3¢	$55.51	$145.04	+$89.53
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 80.1¢	$139.4	$122.82	-$16.58	65% 125977-67395 (193372)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.6¢	$41	—	-$41
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.1¢	$98.4	$122.82	+$24.42
GO GoodFallen<$100	Upavg 73.5¢	$72.4	$65	-$7.4	56% 13958-11077 (25035)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 76.9¢	$160	$50	-$110	58% 60853-44436 (105289)
└ Up leg	Upavg 89¢	$44.5	$50	+$5.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.9¢	$115.5	—	-$115.5
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 90¢	$68.64	$66	-$2.64	49% 78295-81799 (160094)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 82.5¢	$74.33	$60.76	-$13.57	66% 126616-65192 (191808)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 83¢	$71.02	$45.32	-$25.71	60% 12450-8258 (20708)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 84.3¢	$42.6	$50.53	+$7.93	64% 24274-13401 (37675)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 90¢	$28.73	$26.39	-$2.34	65% 4179-2286 (6465)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 89¢	$22.75	$25.56	+$2.81	56% 58419-45082 (103501)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 4.9¢	$6.73	—	-$6.73	59% 62529-43642 (106171)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 98¢	$15.84	$16.16	+$0.32	61% 95475-60241 (155716)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 78¢	$7.79	$9.99	+$2.2	64% 40419-23136 (63555)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 56¢	$16.79	$29.99	+$13.19	57% 12676-9740 (22416)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 99¢	$9.52	$9.62	+$0.1	63% 52248-31272 (83520)
PA Parad0XCTR<$100	Downavg 54¢	$6.6	—	-$6.6	56% 2253-1755 (4008)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 72¢	$14.4	$20	+$5.6	55% 24070-19444 (43514)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 78¢	$4	—	-$4	55% 18138-14723 (32861)

machinelearned

Invested

$525.25

Value

$613.42

PnL

+$88.17

Record

55%

8834-7294 (16128)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$281.95

Value

$399.98

PnL

+$118.03

Record

55%

15710-13078 (28788)

ply-pm0

Invested

$326.23

Value

$261.14

PnL

-$65.09

Record

50%

5477-5524 (11001)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$205.65

Value

$231.14

PnL

+$29.13

Record

55%

7664-6267 (13931)

pspspsps5

Invested

$210.04

Value

$190.93

PnL

-$19.1

Record

46%

38451-45413 (83864)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$165.94

Value

$163.8

PnL

-$2.15

Record

54%

8224-6907 (15131)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$109.5

Value

$101.12

PnL

-$8.38

Record

62%

44057-27075 (71132)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$97.37

Value

$145.04

PnL

+$47.67

Record

66%

99403-51545 (150948)

Both legs:

Down$41.8673¢-$41.86

Up$55.5138.3¢+$89.53

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$139.4

Value

$122.82

PnL

-$16.58

Record

65%

125977-67395 (193372)

Both legs:

Down$4167.6¢-$41

Up$98.480.1¢+$24.42

GoodFallen<$100

Invested

$72.4

Value

$65

PnL

-$7.4

Record

56%

13958-11077 (25035)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$160

Value

$50

PnL

-$110

Record

58%

60853-44436 (105289)

Both legs:

Up$44.589¢+$5.5

Down$115.576.9¢-$115.5

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$68.64

Value

$66

PnL

-$2.64

Record

49%

78295-81799 (160094)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$74.33

Value

$60.76

PnL

-$13.57

Record

66%

126616-65192 (191808)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$71.02

Value

$45.32

PnL

-$25.71

Record

60%

12450-8258 (20708)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$42.6

Value

$50.53

PnL

+$7.93

Record

64%

24274-13401 (37675)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$28.73

Value

$26.39

PnL

-$2.34

Record

65%

4179-2286 (6465)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$22.75

Value

$25.56

PnL

+$2.81

Record

56%

58419-45082 (103501)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.73

Value

—

PnL

-$6.73

Record

59%

62529-43642 (106171)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$15.84

Value

$16.16

PnL

+$0.32

Record

61%

95475-60241 (155716)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$7.79

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$2.2

Record

64%

40419-23136 (63555)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$16.79

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$13.19

Record

57%

12676-9740 (22416)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.62

PnL

+$0.1

Record

63%

52248-31272 (83520)

Parad0XCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.6

Value

—

PnL

-$6.6

Record

56%

2253-1755 (4008)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$20

PnL

+$5.6

Record

55%

24070-19444 (43514)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$4

Record

55%

18138-14723 (32861)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 24 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x91da8fd9...ebea5d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793488800

Traders in this Market

machinelearned

Up — $613.42

+$88.17

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $399.98

+$118.03

ply-pm0

Up — $261.14

-$65.09

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $231.14

+$29.13

pspspsps5

Up — $190.93

-$19.1

sfkjbsr457

Up — $163.8

-$2.15

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $101.12

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

drfc4eybh7i8

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Up — $65

-$7.4

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