Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$139.2

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,215

Combined PnL+$140.61

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares732

Combined PnL-$279.81

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.91	93% 24047-1801 (25848)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 35.4¢	$702.47	$577.72	-$124.75	55% 15710-13078 (28788)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.8¢	$327.89	$577.72	+$249.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.4¢	$374.58	—	-$374.58
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 60.3¢	$552.31	$511.78	-$40.54	50% 5477-5524 (11001)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.3¢	$308.46	$511.78	+$203.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.6¢	$243.85	—	-$243.85
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 55.6¢	$298.87	$275.84	-$23.03	56% 13958-11077 (25035)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.6¢	$153.31	$275.84	+$122.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.1¢	$145.56	—	-$145.56
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 57.8¢	$147.76	$158.01	+$10.25	66% 112373-59102 (171475)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.8¢	$91.4	$158.01	+$66.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.4¢	$56.36	—	-$56.36
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 78.3¢	$190.6	$180.84	-$9.76	60% 12450-8258 (20708)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 77.1¢	$131.55	$115.64	-$15.91	55% 8834-7294 (16128)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.1¢	$89.17	$115.64	+$26.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.8¢	$42.38	—	-$42.38
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 66.6¢	$129.65	$180.01	+$53.06	55% 7664-6267 (13931)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 71.8¢	$155.52	$120	-$35.52	54% 8224-6907 (15131)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.8¢	$86.16	$120	+$33.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.2¢	$69.36	—	-$69.36
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 38.8¢	$182.14	—	-$182.14	57% 12676-9740 (22416)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$81.68	$71.39	-$10.29	66% 99403-51545 (150948)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.5¢	$43.2	$71.39	+$28.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.1¢	$38.48	—	-$38.48
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 76.5¢	$76.02	$91.53	+$15.5	55% 24070-19444 (43514)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$65.04	$95.88	+$30.84	59% 6966-4892 (11858)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 71.1¢	$49.85	$59.99	+$11.95	64% 24274-13401 (37675)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 24.1¢	$44.55	—	-$44.55	57% 71395-54409 (125804)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 76.3¢	$51	$66.84	+$15.84	55% 18138-14723 (32861)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$28.45	—	-$28.45	56% 8178-6319 (14497)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 53¢	$17.37	—	-$17.37	58% 38241-27378 (65619)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 76¢	$15.38	$10.26	-$5.12	52% 90943-85477 (176420)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 77¢	$13.79	$17.91	+$4.12	58% 60853-44436 (105289)
PA Parad0X<$100	Upavg 49¢	$7.8	$15.92	+$8.12	56% 2253-1755 (4008)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$4.42	—	-$4.42	49% 78295-81799 (160094)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 23¢	$2.89	—	-$2.89	63% 52248-31272 (83520)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 77¢	$3.9	$5.06	+$1.16	56% 58419-45082 (103501)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3673-2843 (6516)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,476.09

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.91

Record

93%

24047-1801 (25848)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$702.47

Value

$577.72

PnL

-$124.75

Record

55%

15710-13078 (28788)

Both legs:

Up$327.8956.8¢+$249.83

Down$374.5835.4¢-$374.58

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$552.31

Value

$511.78

PnL

-$40.54

Record

50%

5477-5524 (11001)

Both legs:

Up$308.4660.3¢+$203.32

Down$243.8534.6¢-$243.85

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$298.87

Value

$275.84

PnL

-$23.03

Record

56%

13958-11077 (25035)

Both legs:

Up$153.3155.6¢+$122.53

Down$145.5636.1¢-$145.56

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$147.76

Value

$158.01

PnL

+$10.25

Record

66%

112373-59102 (171475)

Both legs:

Up$91.457.8¢+$66.61

Down$56.3623.4¢-$56.36

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$190.6

Value

$180.84

PnL

-$9.76

Record

60%

12450-8258 (20708)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$131.55

Value

$115.64

PnL

-$15.91

Record

55%

8834-7294 (16128)

Both legs:

Up$89.1777.1¢+$26.47

Down$42.3817.8¢-$42.38

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$129.65

Value

$180.01

PnL

+$53.06

Record

55%

7664-6267 (13931)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$155.52

Value

$120

PnL

-$35.52

Record

54%

8224-6907 (15131)

Both legs:

Up$86.1671.8¢+$33.84

Down$69.3648.2¢-$69.36

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$182.14

Value

—

PnL

-$182.14

Record

57%

12676-9740 (22416)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$81.68

Value

$71.39

PnL

-$10.29

Record

66%

99403-51545 (150948)

Both legs:

Up$43.260.5¢+$28.19

Down$38.4830.1¢-$38.48

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$76.02

Value

$91.53

PnL

+$15.5

Record

55%

24070-19444 (43514)

13897651<$100

Invested

$65.04

Value

$95.88

PnL

+$30.84

Record

59%

6966-4892 (11858)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$49.85

Value

$59.99

PnL

+$11.95

Record

64%

24274-13401 (37675)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$44.55

Value

—

PnL

-$44.55

Record

57%

71395-54409 (125804)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$51

Value

$66.84

PnL

+$15.84

Record

55%

18138-14723 (32861)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.45

Value

—

PnL

-$28.45

Record

56%

8178-6319 (14497)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.37

Value

—

PnL

-$17.37

Record

58%

38241-27378 (65619)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$15.38

Value

$10.26

PnL

-$5.12

Record

52%

90943-85477 (176420)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$13.79

Value

$17.91

PnL

+$4.12

Record

58%

60853-44436 (105289)

Parad0X<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$15.92

PnL

+$8.12

Record

56%

2253-1755 (4008)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.42

Value

—

PnL

-$4.42

Record

49%

78295-81799 (160094)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.89

Value

—

PnL

-$2.89

Record

63%

52248-31272 (83520)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$1.16

Record

56%

58419-45082 (103501)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3673-2843 (6516)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa8937db7...fa4877

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793488500

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $1.5K

+$14.91

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

antsaslyku

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $180.84

-$9.76

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$15.91

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $180.01

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Down — $0