Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 85%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$122.71

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 27 top traders (81%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,088

Combined PnL+$266.67

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares326

Combined PnL-$143.96

Down — 81%Up — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 98.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$17.37	74% 102879-36496 (139375)
pspspsps5	Downavg 93.2¢	$423.76	$454.65	+$30.89	46% 38451-45413 (83864)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 75.8¢	$238.55	$241.15	+$2.6	50% 5477-5524 (11001)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$189.09	$191	+$1.91	93% 24047-1801 (25848)
LI Little-big	Downavg 47.7¢	$96	$201.32	+$105.32	35% 18993-35997 (54990)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 84.5¢	$131.56	$133.62	+$2.06	54% 8224-6907 (15131)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 73.7¢	$124.8	$121.78	-$3.02	55% 15710-13078 (28788)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.7¢	$89.74	$121.78	+$32.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.9¢	$35.06	—	-$35.06
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 88.9¢	$153.34	$127.91	-$25.43	65% 125977-67395 (193372)
DV dvasdkasodk	Downavg 94.7¢	$115.05	$118.31	+$3.26	52% 90943-85477 (176420)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 86¢	$104.13	$112.71	+$8.57	62% 44057-27075 (71132)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 47.7¢	$88.9	$181	+$92.1	56% 8178-6319 (14497)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 83.6¢	$78.71	$80.4	+$1.69	66% 99403-51545 (150948)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.6¢	$67.2	$80.4	+$13.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 8.4¢	$11.51	—	-$11.51
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 84.4¢	$86.28	$102.21	+$15.93	49% 78295-81799 (160094)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 82¢	$112.33	$71.56	-$40.77	56% 13958-11077 (25035)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82¢	$58.71	$71.56	+$12.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.8¢	$53.62	—	-$53.62
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 88¢	$77.44	$88	+$10.56	60% 12450-8258 (20708)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$66	$80	+$14	57% 71395-54409 (125804)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 81.4¢	$49.94	$61.35	+$11.41	66% 126616-65192 (191808)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 85.7¢	$48.13	$56.13	+$8	61% 95475-60241 (155716)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 94.4¢	$41.74	$42.1	+$0.36	58% 60853-44436 (105289)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 37.1¢	$21.34	$30	+$8.66	57% 12676-9740 (22416)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 87.6¢	$42.05	$41.34	-$0.71	55% 18138-14723 (32861)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$81.06	—	-$81.06	55% 7664-6267 (13931)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 88.4¢	$26.48	$27.83	+$1.35	65% 4179-2286 (6465)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 88¢	$31.04	$20	-$11.04	55% 24070-19444 (43514)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$41.65	—	-$41.65	55% 8834-7294 (16128)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$1,778.12

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$17.37

Record

74%

102879-36496 (139375)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$423.76

Value

$454.65

PnL

+$30.89

Record

46%

38451-45413 (83864)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$238.55

Value

$241.15

PnL

+$2.6

Record

50%

5477-5524 (11001)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$189.09

Value

$191

PnL

+$1.91

Record

93%

24047-1801 (25848)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$96

Value

$201.32

PnL

+$105.32

Record

35%

18993-35997 (54990)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$131.56

Value

$133.62

PnL

+$2.06

Record

54%

8224-6907 (15131)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$124.8

Value

$121.78

PnL

-$3.02

Record

55%

15710-13078 (28788)

Both legs:

Down$89.7473.7¢+$32.04

Up$35.0618.9¢-$35.06

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$153.34

Value

$127.91

PnL

-$25.43

Record

65%

125977-67395 (193372)

dvasdkasodk

Down

Invested

$115.05

Value

$118.31

PnL

+$3.26

Record

52%

90943-85477 (176420)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$104.13

Value

$112.71

PnL

+$8.57

Record

62%

44057-27075 (71132)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$88.9

Value

$181

PnL

+$92.1

Record

56%

8178-6319 (14497)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$78.71

Value

$80.4

PnL

+$1.69

Record

66%

99403-51545 (150948)

Both legs:

Invested

$86.28

Value

$102.21

PnL

+$15.93

Record

49%

78295-81799 (160094)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$112.33

Value

$71.56

PnL

-$40.77

Record

56%

13958-11077 (25035)

Both legs:

Down$58.7182¢+$12.85

Up$53.6232.8¢-$53.62

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$77.44

Value

$88

PnL

+$10.56

Record

60%

12450-8258 (20708)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$66

Value

$80

PnL

+$14

Record

57%

71395-54409 (125804)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$49.94

Value

$61.35

PnL

+$11.41

Record

66%

126616-65192 (191808)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$48.13

Value

$56.13

PnL

+$8

Record

61%

95475-60241 (155716)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$41.74

Value

$42.1

PnL

+$0.36

Record

58%

60853-44436 (105289)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$21.34

Value

$30

PnL

+$8.66

Record

57%

12676-9740 (22416)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$42.05

Value

$41.34

PnL

-$0.71

Record

55%

18138-14723 (32861)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$81.06

Value

—

PnL

-$81.06

Record

55%

7664-6267 (13931)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$26.48

Value

$27.83

PnL

+$1.35

Record

65%

4179-2286 (6465)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$31.04

Value

$20

PnL

-$11.04

Record

55%

24070-19444 (43514)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$41.65

Value

—

PnL

-$41.65

Record

55%

8834-7294 (16128)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 27 top traders (81%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x20372d49...5faac3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793488200

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Down — $1.8K

-$17.37

pspspsps5

Down — $454.65

+$30.89

ply-pm0

Down — $241.15

+$2.6

hoodquant

Down — $191

+$1.91

Little-big

Down — $201.32

+$105.32

sfkjbsr457

Down — $133.62

+$2.06

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$3.02

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $127.91

-$25.43

dvasdkasodk

Down — $118.31

+$3.26

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $112.71

+$8.57

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